We Need A Debt Jubilee Yesterday

Forget a mere "stimulus", that is far too stingy to get America out of the hole we are in now.  We need a massive DEBT JUBILEE like the ancient Israelites used to do every 49 years (and frankly never should have stopped doing!), and not just for student loans (though certainly for that too). And the forgiven/cancelled debt amounts must be 100% non-taxable since we do not want to defeat the purpose of the jubilee.  So how can we do this without zeroing out everyone's bank account?  Easy, just print (or more accurately, electronically keystroke) the money.  The federal government is Monetarily Sovereign, and money is simply an accounting entry ever since we got off the gold standard on August 15, 1971.  So make the entry and be done with it.  And it wouldn't even be inflationary, since striking debt by the same amount as the amount of money creates has a net effect of zero on the money supply.  Meanwhile, removing this massive debt burden would be a massive B-12 shot for economic growth.  So even people who have zero debt and feel they have no dog in the fight would benefit from a stronger economy that is no longer weighed down by a massive collective debt overhang.

Additionally, we would also need a permanent Universal Basic Income (UBI) of at least $1000/month for adults and $500/month for people under 18 (and double those amounts for the first three months), single-payer Medicare For All, free public college for all, and things like that as well if we are to truly transcend the crisis America is in.  Again, for a fraction of the amount that the FERAL Reserve creates every year to give/lend to the big banks, we could do it without raising taxes or inflation.

As for putting Americans back to work, there are three words:  Green New Deal.  The infrastructure upgrades and changes that need to be made will create lots of new jobs. And since goods and services would by definition increase in tandem with the new money created to fund them, the net effect on inflation would also be effectively zero as well.

(Hat tip to the brilliant and wonderful Ellen Brown for pointing so many of these things out.)

That said, what we will NOT advocate is shutting down the economy again and hoping to print our way out of it.  Because deliberately shrinking the goods and services in the economy via shuttering the economy by fiat, while simultaneously printing money to paper over the hole, WILL be VERY inflationary if maintained for more than a few weeks at most.  Just ask Argentina how well their world's longest lockdown is working, with 40% inflation and a COVID death rate higher than wide-open Brazil.

So what are we waiting for?

The TSAP's New Updated Position On Face Mask Mandates

NOTE:  The following shall fully supersede any positions taken or advice given prior to December 1, 2020, and shall remain in effect until further notice.

With the CDC doubling down on universal face mask use 11 months into the pandemic, and President-Elect Joe Biden wanting Americans to wear masks during his first 100 days in office (which will not even start until January 20, 2021, thus lasting until April 30, 2021), it is time for a fresh review of the TSAP's position on face masks and any mandates thereof.

From April/May until August 2020, the TSAP had enthusiastically supported broad but nuanced, relatively short-term mask mandates, primarily as a safe pathway out of lockdown.  Since then, in light of recent evidence, our position has gradually shifted.

A cursory review of the empirical evidence so far reveals that while masks may very well be marginally effective at the micro level, they apparently are practically insignificant at the macro level, at least in the long run.  To wit, as the charts here so clearly show, broad mask mandates do not appear to have had any noticeable impact on the course of a country, state, or locality's epidemic curve.  To name a few, Hawaii, Illinois, LA, Miami, Kansas, Wisconsin, Israel, Japan, Spain, Argentina, and most notoriously Peru all have seen no beneficial long-run impact on cases (which actually increased at some point after implementation, even in conjunction with strict lockdowns in some cases), and the same was ultimately true for deaths and hospitalizations as well, except for Hawaii and Japan whose death rates remain unusually low for reasons not yet fully understood.  As for Czechia, the crown jewel of early mask mandates, it appears to have only worked the first time in conjunction with their early suppression strategy in the spring, but not the second time around when the virus came roaring back in the fall.  Ditto for Slovenia, a fortiori in fact.  France and Italy's second waves were also a milder version of this phenomenon.  Meanwhile, mandate-free Sweden, Denmark, Norway, North and South Dakota, Georgia, and the parts of Florida without local mandates don't seem to have had worse trends overall compared to many places that have such mandates.  And until very recently, The Netherlands as well, having gone until December without a broad mask mandate.

And we certainly do NOT support any federal mask mandates in the USA at all, period.  They are not only constitutionally dubious at best, but as noted above there is simply not nearly enough evidence in their favor to justify such unprecedented federal government overreach even temporarily.  Fortunately, even Joe Biden himself has largely walked back his initially strong support for such federal mandates.

Furthermore, on November 18, 2020, the much awaited Danish mask RCT study was finally released and published three months late in the Annals of Internal Medicine.  And the results were, shall we say, rather underwhelming, and not statistically significant (i.e. not statistically different from null).  Not necessarily the final word, but hardly a ringing endorsement for the effectiveness of general mask use in the community at the macro level.

A recent Cochrane review of the literature is not exactly reassuring either, to put it mildly.

But what about source control, you say?  That is, protection of people around the wearer, which most studies were not designed to look at?  Again, a cursory look at the data in the weeks and months following the implementation of mask mandates doesn't really support that either, at least not at a general population level.  Thus any such community benefit is likely either very small, very transient, or both.

Thus, we can conclude that even if there is some overarching benefit to wearing masks in some situations, universal community masking (or lack thereof) is nowhere near the game-changer it was originally sold as.  If it were, the pandemic would have been effectively over in a given locality, state, or country (even as it raged elsewhere) within two or three weeks following the implementation of a broad mask mandate.  And that has not happened anywhere in the world, even in places with very high (90%+) compliance, and even when combined with a ban on indoor restaurant dining (a behavior which might vitiate the results).  And as of November, the TSAP believes going forward that mask wearing (outside of a healthcare setting) should be largely (if not entirely) voluntary, and that businesses of any kind should be free to decide whether or not to require employees and/or customers to wear them.  And they certainly should not be government-mandated in private residences, as that is a truly massive and unprecedented overreach, not to mention unenforceable.

What consenting adults do in their own private residences with each other or their guests is none of the government's business, period.  Alas, the progressive left seems to have regrettably forgotten that in the fog of pandemic.  Let people of reasonably sound mind choose to take the risks they feel comfortable with when in private, at the very least.  As for the supposed externalities when a guest or host of a private gathering or visit inadvertently and unknowingly infects someone who then infects someone who infects someone (and so on) who dies or becomes severely ill, there are enough degrees of separation that unless it was at the very beginning of the pandemic (nearly a year ago globally, and at least nine months ago in the USA), the virus would already be so widespread that in the grand scheme of things such unfortunate people would likely have caught it regardless.  Thus, it would still be well within the realm of what modern civilized and free societies tolerate as acceptable risks, for better or worse.

And while we shouldn't have to dignify this with a response, we will note that the idea that people should wear masks during sexual activity is just plain silly because if you're getting that close to someone for that long, presumably indoors (or in a vehicle), it's more like the mask is wearing YOU for protection, not the other way around.  Even if it's the vaunted N95 or KN95, in fact.  It's like wearing a helmet while skydiving, as the old Seinfeld joke goes.  Thus you might wanna just simply take a rain check on such activities for now if you are that concerned about the virus, at least with people outside your "bubble".

Riddle me this:  if masks work so well, why is six-foot distancing still needed?  If six-foot distancing works so well, why are masks still needed?  If both work so well, why are lockdowns and closures still supposedly needed?  And if lockdowns worked so well the first time, why do we need to do it again?  If they did not work the first time, why are we doing it again?  Why still nearly a whole year into the pandemic when the curve was clearly flattened many months ago? And of course no measure can logically be both "Swiss cheese" and the "most effective tool we have" at the same time, unless one were to tacitly admit that all such measures are largely ineffective in practice, meaning that even the "most effective tool" would be largely useless.  Give the zealots enough rope...

(Oh, and masks are not exactly eco-friendly in the long run either, by the way.  The very same folks who want to quickly phase out plastic bags, containers, straws, etc. seem to have a real blind spot here.)

Thus our current position is that mask mandates from any level of government should only be imposed on bona fide local red zones, with nuance, and even then only for two or three weeks at a time.  That's it, full stop.  Children under the age of 12 should be exempt in any case, both in school and otherwise.  And after January 1, 2021 at the latest, all existing mask mandates in green zones ought to be rescinded or allowed to expire, though voluntary recommendations can still remain in effect.

Our best advice?  "Use masks judiciously, NOT superstitiously", pretty much sums it up.

2021 UPDATE:  The much-ballyhooed CDC mask mandate study has now been utterly debunked as of March 4, 2021.  And just a few days later, another one bit the dust as well.  And this debunking is basically Strike Three after 1) the underwhelming Danish mask study even after it was clearly "nerfed" to get it past the censors, and 2) a cursory comparison of states, localities and countries that had vs. did not have mask mandates before and during this past fall and winter.  Spoiler alert:  the mandates were a big nothing in terms of effectiveness.  From the looks of it at face value, Fauci may have indeed been largely right the first time when he initially pooh-poohed masks and actually told us not to touch our faces, and we're certainly old enough to remember that.  And it's not like mask mandates have actually led to faster reopenings or averted lockdowns either.  So whatever merits there are to individual mask wearing in whatever circumstances, there is no valid reason for any government to force them on anyone (outside of a healthcare setting), period, and it should be left to individuals and businesses to decide for themselves. 

By the same token, it looks like the WHO was also right the first time in that regard as well.  Even as recently as July 2020, believe it or not.

Kinda like when they let it slip in June 2020 that truly asymptomatic spread, while possible, is a lot rarer than most people think, a mere 0.7% even in that very closest and riskiest setting of all, within households.  Only to be forced to walk it back the very next day, of course.  And outdoor spread?  A vanishingly low 0.1% of cases.  And fomites (surfaces)?  An even lower still < 0.01%, and probably even less than that if people wash their hands and don't touch their faces or keep fiddling with their masks!  All for a disease with an infection fatality rate within the ballpark of a nasty flu season for most people, and that we know now how to treat effectively.  This is what the actual science says.  And it utterly demolishes the need for lockdowns, closures, mask mandates, or any other New Abnormal restrictions at this juncture, period.

See also here as well for a good explanation of the crucial difference between large droplets (that masks do seem to work for) and much smaller aerosols (which basically go right through and/or around essentially ALL masks other than properly fit-tested N95s).  It is the latter that seem to be a bigger driver of transmission, unfortunately, and worse, since they tend to penetrate deeper into the lungs, they also tend to make you sicker too.  Thus, we should not be at all surprised by the null effects of universal community masking at the macro level.  In fact, even the "variolation" theory is basically turned on its head as well--larger droplets would probably provide better "variolation" than aerosols would, ironically.

As for children, see here for a good and thorough debunking of the notion that forcing them to wear masks in school and elsewhere is somehow necessary, effective, or benign.  Even the WHO says that children under 5 years of age should not wear masks at all, children ages 6-11 should only wear them in certain circumstances, and children of any age with various kinds of disabilities or health conditions should not be required to wear them at all.  The CDC, on the other hand, apparently prefers to steamroll over anything even remotely resembling nuance in that regard.

See also here as well for an excellent article about how continued universal masking may even be harmful in the long run for all ages.  All the more reason NOT to make this practice permanent in any sense, and to phase it out completely in nearly all circumstances. We ignore actual science at our peril.

The Placebo "Vaccine" That Actually Works

DISCLAIMER:  The following article references third-party sources and is intended for general information only, and is NOT intended to provide medical advice or otherwise diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease, including (but not limited to) COVID-19.  Consult a qualified physician before beginning any sort of treatment or prophylactic regimen and/or if you know or suspect that you currently have COVID-19.  Anyone who takes or does anything mentioned (or alluded to) in this or any other TSAP article does so entirely at their own risk and liability.  The TSAP thus makes absolutely no warranties, express or implied, and is not liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages resulting from any act or omission on the part of the reader(s) or others.  Caveat lector.

See also our previous articles here, here, and here as well.  Also, special thanks to Bill Sardi, Dr. Gareth "Gruff" Davies, Dr. Dmitry Kats, Dr. Mikko Panunio, and Swiss Policy Research, et al. whose research this article draws upon and cites in the links throughout.

The much-awaited (and hyped) COVID-19 vaccine has all but arrived now, but some rather stubborn questions remain before breaking out the proverbial champagne.  Who gets it first, and when?  What exactly are the logistics of distributing a brand new type of vaccine that requires storage at -70 C (-94 F, or dry ice to liquid nitrogen temperature!) in two doses to tens and then hundreds of millions of Americans (let alone billions worldwide)?  Not to mention the very biggest elephant in the room:  what are the long-term effects of an experimental vaccine of a type (mRNA vaccine) never before approved for use in humans?  The answer to that last question, by definition for any hastily-made vaccine with no more than a few short months of clinical trials, is literally unknown, and not exactly reassuring to say the least.  

All for a disease whose best-estimated infection fatality rate (IFR) is in the ballpark of a really bad seasonal flu (i.e. between 0.1-0.3% on average, albeit with wide variance), and for better or worse we will almost certainly already reach "herd immunity" the natural way by the time the vaccine is anywhere close to fully rolled out and distributed to the general population (at least three months from now, at which time the pandemic will be over a year old).

For the record, from the get-go we at the TSAP categorically oppose even any hint of coercion in regards to these vaccines, period.  A truly voluntary vaccine given honestly with truly informed consent is one thing, but coercion--whether it is outright brute force, loss of privileges or benefits, immunity passports, enforced social exclusion, poverty, deception/dishonesty, or anything in between--we strongly oppose it.  Both on safety grounds as well as on basic civil and human rights grounds as well.  And in the USA, there is of course that Constitution thingy as well.  Besides, if it is so great and wonderful, it would by definition really not need to be forced on anyone, right?

The idea that we somehow need this "warp-speed" vaccine to get back to normal and end these authoritarian restrictions for good is of course pure bunk, but mere facts and logic will obviously not convince everyone.  So, what if there were a sort of active placebo "vaccine" that actually was known to be safe and effective against not only this virus, but plenty of other viruses and bacteria as well, thus potentially replacing other vaccines too?  One that would not only put people's minds at ease for the first time since March 2020, but also has actual health benefits?  Well, it apparently exists, and it's called....

VITAMIN D.  Yes, that Vitamin D, aka cholecalciferol, the sunshine vitamin.  It is a very effective antiviral prophylaxis.  And it can apparently be given as a once-yearly injection of 300,000 international units (IU), ideally just before flu season much like a flu shot.  Of course, it can also be taken orally and regularly in medium to high doses (2000-4000 IU/day on average) or higher doses less frequently.  A "loading" phase of 10,000 IU/day (or 50,000 IU/week) orally for just 2-3 weeks before returning to 2000-4000 IU/day would likely be enough to safely restore blood levels of Vitamin D to optimal levels.  And for any serious or critical cases of COVID that still occur, a very high bolus dose of the active form (calcifediol, or 25-OH Vitamin D, which works quicker) equivalent to 100,000 IU can be a literal lifesaver according to a recent randomized clinical trial.

(Hat tip to Dr. Gareth "Gruff" Davies.)

Ever wonder why Canada and all of the Nordic countries (even Sweden) have significantly lower COVID death rates compared with nearly all of their southern counterparts, despite getting less sunlight?  Well, it could be because they all fortify so many of their staple foods with Vitamin D, and Finland apparently does it the most of all.  Death capitals like Belgium, Spain, the UK, and of course the USA would thus be advised to begin doing so as well, yesterday.

Plus there are other key nutrients that would sharply reduce not only bad outcomes such as deaths, but likely also reduce viral transmission as well:

• Vitamin C (preferably liposomal)
• Zinc (including lozenges)
• Quercetin (a zinc ionophore)
• Niacin (Vitamin B3) 
• Thiamine (Vitamin B1)
• Inositol (Vitamin B8)
• Resveratrol
• Vitamin A (use with caution)
• Melatonin (at night)
• And last but not least, a multivitamin containing selenium, magnesium, copper, and Vitamin E

BOOM.  And the evidence just keeps on piling up.  These things all enhance the immune system, tone down the body's harmful overreactions, and/or directly neutralize the virus itself.  And they are safe enough to recommend to the general population, not only those who are designated as "high risk" or "high exposure" (though certainly a fortiori for such folks). And they, among other things, all featured quite prominently in a previous article we wrote about treatment and prophylaxis for COVID-19.  And of course, they also work for many other viruses in general as well.  It is amazing how many people are deficient in many of these nutrients, and also how many of the various symptoms and after-effects thought to be linked to the virus itself may actually be the result of such deficiencies at least in part.

(Don't expect Big Pharma to ever tell you that though.  Too many vested interests.)

That alone should keep the vast, vast majority of COVID patients out of the hospital.  And for any severe cases that still occur, we already know how to easily treat the most likely complications of secondary bacterial infections, cytokine storms, and blood clots, using antibiotics, corticosteroids, and blood thinners.  And we also know now that ventilators kill more people than they save, and that less invasive means of oxygen therapy work quite well in fact, especially if you don't lay the patients on their backs.  In other words, this is actually a very manageable disease, and the specious idea that it is somehow unmanageable is simply a self-fulfilling prophecy driven by panic and misinformation (if not outright disinformation).

For example, check out the recently updated MATH+ protocol (for hospitalized patients) and the new I-MASK+ protocol (for early treatment and prophylaxis) both from the Front Line Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC).  See also the recently updated protocol by the Swiss Doctor as well.  And the EVMS protocol strongly echoes these ideas as well, as does the newly-updated and famous Zelenko Protocol.

And they all now include the increasingly promising, repurposed drug Ivermectin as well, to one degree or another.  Move over, HCQ, as this one alone is apparently quite the game-changer.  It is treatment for ALL stages of the illness, as well as prophylaxis.  Ask your doctor if Ivermectin is right for you.

One thing on our list above that people may not think of (and is not part of any of the other aforementioned protocols) is Niacin (Vitamin B3).  Dr. Dmitry Kats, apparently discovered months ago niacin (as nicotinic acid), at about 20 cents per 1000 mg dose, actually does work as prophylaxis and even as a practically overnight cure for COVID.  It has to be the immediate-release, "flush" kind in order for it to work, since the classic "niacin flush" reaction is a feature, not a bug.  And niacin has numerous other health benefits as well, while being practically harmless when used as directed.  Certainly better than Gilead's Remdesivir (which is really just a "bunk niacin" and apparently the world's most expensive failure at $5000/dose) and better than even Regeneron's shiny new monoclonal antibody cocktail.  And yes, Dr. Kats ran a very impressive double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial himself with niacin alone.  (Though of course, we would still recommend Vitamin C, Vitamin D, zinc, and quercetin along with it anyway.)  The censors, however, are not at all pleased with his findings.  Gee, I wonder why?

Talk about a game-changer!  It seems that everything else is a mere sideshow in comparison.

As for long-haulers (those suffering from longer-term COVID after-effects), many of the reported symptoms sound a lot like those of deficiencies in several of the aforementioned key nutrients, particularly Vitamin D (in general), Vitamin B1 (dysautonomia and recurring fevers), and zinc (loss of smell and taste).  Correcting these deficiencies would likely work very well to promote healing.  And according to Dr. Dmitry Kats, there is also at least anecdotal evidence as well that niacin (Vitamin B3) can be beneficial as well in healing from remnant COVID damage, which is not really surprising given how well it works to treat acute COVID (as he discovered in his aforementioned RCT study).

Of note, Ivermectin also seems to work for long-haulers as well, to the tune of 94%.

Thus, with the aforementioned knowledge and some good old-fashioned common sense, it is entirely possible to return to the true normal within a few weeks at most, not months or longer like so many people still seem to think per our "leaders".

It's long past time to stop cursing the darkness and start lighting candles instead.  So what are we waiting for?  Not for the vaccine, that's for sure!

(Infographic by Dr. Dmitry Kats, @3PIDEMIOLOGY)

UPDATE:  It appears that the Pfizer vaccine (and also Moderna's as well, given the similarity) "works" two weeks after just one dose based on clinical trials according to the FDA, yet they still recommend the second dose three weeks after the first, because reasons.  Even though the efficacy graph that they show (actual vs. placebo) has no indication that the second dose has any real impact on the odds of catching COVID over such a short time horizon, and the reported short-term, flu-like side effects appear to be a bit worse with the second dose compared with the first, at least anecdotally.  Time will tell whether or not these vaccines will actually stand the test of time.  If you do choose to (or are forced/coerced to) get the vaccine at some point, you should still keep taking the aforementioned supplements as well.

UPDATE ON UPDATE:  Two of the three authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya and Dr. Sunetra Gupta, recently wrote a great article about quickly ending the lockdowns in January at the latest while prioritizing who gets the vaccine at the same time.  That is, vulnerable people should be the highest priority compared to the young and healthy, while anyone who has already had the virus should not get the vaccine, nor should children since the clinical trials did not even study its effects in children (and the virus is far less dangerous for them).  Thus, even if you do support these vaccines, you should understand the idea that everyone or even most people must get vaccinated before going back to normal is ridiculous, and you need not believe that.

As for logistics, the Moderna vaccine would be easier to distribute since unlike Pfizer's it does not require ultra-cold storage, only normal freezer temperature.

On December 14, 2020, the first authorized doses of the Pfizer vaccine were given in the USA to some front-line hospital workers. Within a matter of weeks, more hospital staff and nursing home staff and residents will receive it as well, then other vulnerable individuals will follow.  Eventually it will be open to the general population at some point (likely months from now), and finally at CVS and Walgreens and some supermarkets just like seasonal flu shots.  And we would not be surprised if after the bulk of the rollout they eventually cut it down to only one dose instead of two.  But again, by that time the less vulnerable would likely have already achieved herd immunity by natural infection.  And hopefully it will remain strictly voluntary, though unfortunately that may not be the case everywhere, and we must not support any kind of force or coercion in that regard.  We do know that at least Florida will NOT make the vaccine mandatory, according to Governor Ron DeSantis, and we highly doubt that Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota would ever do so either.  So the technocrats will clearly face a major fly in their ointment if they try to do so in 2021, God willing.

KNOW YOUR RIGHTS.  Informed consent is still a civil and human right, and there is no such thing as a "pandemic exception" to the US Constitution, the Helsinki Declaration, or the Nuremburg Code.  Or even the Magna Carta for that matter--in fact, politicians and royalty should be the very first in line for any vaccine that they want the rest of us to get.

Please sign and share this petition against forced or coerced experimental vaccines.

As for prophylactic nasal sprays, some are in development as we speak, though not yet commercially available.  Until then, fortunately there is already one that is likely to block the virus while yielding additional health benefits in the meantime.  It is called Xlear, a natural, drug-free saline nasal spray with xylitol and grapefruit seed extract.

(Probiotics might also be promising too.)

And finally, Dr. Sebastian Rushworth has an excellent article summarizing what is known thus far about the Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccines.

MAY 2021 UPDATE:  Looks like the vaccines, especially the mRNA ones, do work well (for the most part) for adults who are fully vaccinated (i.e. two weeks after the final dose), though questions still remain about their medium- and long-term safety, especially for children and teens.  See this article here about a controversial risk-benefit analysis.

The COVID-19 Pandemic Has A Kill Switch. Let's Use It, Yesterday!

DISCLAIMER:  The following article references third-party sources and is intended for general information only, and is NOT intended to provide medical advice or otherwise diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease, including (but not limited to) COVID-19.  Consult a qualified physician before beginning any sort of treatment or prophylactic regimen and/or if you know or suspect that you currently have COVID-19.  Anyone who takes or does anything mentioned (or alluded to) in this or any other TSAP article does so entirely at their own risk and liability.  The TSAP thus makes absolutely no warranties, express or implied, and is not liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages resulting from any act or omission on the part of the reader(s) or others.  Caveat lector.

What if there was a way to end the dreaded COVID-19 pandemic quickly and harmlessly, within a matter of a few weeks at most, without resorting to lockdowns or shutdowns of any kind, and without the need for any sort of vaccine?  Eradication of this soon-to-be-endemic virus is of course practically impossible since that train has left the station long ago, but it can be quite easily reduced to a mere nuisance like the common cold or seasonal flu going forward.  

Of course, in the long run, both "herd immunity" and attenuation (weakening) of the virus itself will do the trick, as an inevitable result of mass natural infection, and we're already pretty damn close, but what do we do in the meantime to make this a far less risky proposition since the virus is, you know, rather nasty and even deadly for some people?  Enter antiviral prophylaxis of some sort.  According to a very good model originally designed for pandemic influenza, this will not only "flatten the curve", but actually CRUSH the curve down hard, more so and faster than even the very best vaccines ever could, as the latter take too much time to roll out en masse and kick in.  And a solution couldn't come soon enough.

So what would this prophylaxis be?  Here is our "kill switch" to sharply reduce not only bad outcomes such as deaths, but also viral transmission as well:

• Vitamin D, first and foremost.
• Vitamin C (preferably liposomal)
• Zinc (including lozenges)
• Quercetin (a zinc ionophore)
• Niacin (Vitamin B3) 
• Thiamine (Vitamin B1)
• Inositol (Vitamin B8)
• Vitamin A (use with caution)
• Melatonin (at night)
• And last but not least, a multivitamin containing selenium, magnesium, copper, and Vitamin E

Really?  Sounds too easy, right?  We thought so too at first, but the evidence just keeps on piling up.  These things all enhance the immune system, tone down the body's harmful overreactions, and/or directly neutralize the virus itself.  And they are safe enough to recommend to the general population, not only those who are designated as "high risk" or "high exposure" (though certainly a fortiori for such folks). And they, among other things, all featured quite prominently in a previous article we wrote about treatment and prophylaxis for COVID-19.  And of course, they also work for many other viruses in general as well.  It is amazing how many people are deficient in many of these nutrients, and also how many of the various symptoms and after-effects thought to be linked to the virus itself may actually be the result of such deficiencies at least in part.

That alone should keep the vast, vast majority of COVID patients out of the hospital.  And for any severe cases that still occur, we already know how to easily treat the most likely complications of secondary bacterial infections, cytokine storms, and blood clots, using antibiotics, corticosteroids, and blood thinners.  And we also know now that ventilators kill more people than they save, and that less invasive means of oxygen therapy work quite well in fact, especially if you don't lay the patients on their backs.  In other words, this is actually a very manageable disease, and the specious idea that it is somehow unmanageable is simply a self-fulfilling prophecy driven by panic and misinformation (if not outright disinformation).

For example, check out the recently updated MATH+ protocol (for hospitalized patients) and the new I-MASK+ protocol (for early treatment and prophylaxis) both from the Front Line Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC).  And see also the recently updated protocol by the Swiss Doctor as well.

To further out-ninja this virus, redirect it away from vulnerable people, and reduce the herd immunity threshold and overshoot, we should take some lessons from the countries that had very low death rates without (or independently of) lockdowns:

• Wash your hands, don't touch your face, cover coughs and sneezes, stay home if sick, avoid people who are currently sick, and all that jazz. Vulnerable people should avoid crowds as much as possible.  You know, common sense, basically.
• Clean and disinfect high-touch surfaces frequently, including your phone.
• Ventilate, ventilate, ventilate indoor spaces as much as possible.
• Do temperature checks to enter public buildings and workplaces, and perhaps for public transportation as well.
• When doing contact tracing, do backward rather than forward tracing.  That works much better given the stochastic nature of this virus.
• When it comes to gatherings of any kind, remember that SIZE MATTERS, as the risk of virus exposure and spread increases exponentially with the number of people present.  This is especially true in enclosed spaces for prolonged periods of time.
• Use face masks judiciously, not superstitiously.  They are filters, not barriers.  Change/clean them as frequently as possible so they don't backfire and become fomites (germ carriers).
• And most importantly, take the proper precautions to stop the nosocomial spread of the virus within hospitals and nursing homes, which account for the lion's share of deaths in many countries, but some countries managed to solve nonetheless.

In other words, take the same precautions you would if you found out that there was a flu outbreak and/or a norovirus outbreak in your neighborhood, community, or workplace.  Because the way it spreads is similar to both types of viruses--and like the latter one, don't neglect the fecal-oral route of transmission.

Of course, thus far we are referring to the actual pandemic, that is, the one that actually produces significant excess deaths.  We haven't discussed how to also quash the massive testing "casedemic" that has been superimposed on top of it.  Here's how to tackle that one going forward as well:

• Reduce the cycle threshold for PCR testing to 30 for standard sensitivity, and perhaps 35 for high sensitivity testing.
• Confirm all positives with a retest before reporting results, especially positives with a cycle threshold >25.
• Test sensitivity is rather overrated, apparently, at least in terms of a tradeoff with speed and frequency.
• Do not include positive antigen (i.e. rapid) tests in reported "cases" unless also confirmed by PCR.
• Do not mix in positive antibody test results as new "cases", as that is comparing apples and oranges.
• Do not count multiple positive tests of the same individual as separate "cases", unless they are at least several months apart.
• Consider restricting virus testing to symptomatic individuals only, except in very sensitive environments such as hospitals and nursing homes.
• Report COVID hospitalizations as such only if the patients are there because of the virus (think CLI, ILI, shortness of breath, and/or pneumonia), not just because they tested positive after being admitted for something unrelated.
• Make sure all deaths designated as COVID deaths really are from COVID. That is, no motor vehicle accidents, gunshot wounds, alligator attacks, deaths of despair, etc. with merely incidental positive tests.
• Report cases by specimen date and deaths by date of death.

And just like that, goodbye pandemic!  And by ending lockdowns and other restrictions and going back to true normal sooner rather than later, we will also prevent any further collateral damage that is the actual root cause of so many excess deaths and so much misery we have seen so far this year.

And there you have it.  Consider this our silver bullet, and golden ticket out of this horrible nightmare for good.  Yesterday is not soon enough.  So what are we waiting for?  Let the real healing begin!

UPDATE:  After perusing some of the links in this article, the reader may wonder why we did not list bromhexine as a treatment and prophylaxis despite it looking rather promising.  The reason is simply because it is unfortunately still not available in the USA, despite it being safe and readily available OTC in almost every country in the world.  And this article is written primarily for an American audience.

One can also add resveratrol to the list as well, as it helps normalize the immune system, and was also found to show effectiveness against a far deadlier member of the coronavirus family, namely MERS.

As for long-haulers (those suffering from longer-term COVID after-effects), many of the reported symptoms sound a lot like those of deficiencies in several of the aforementioned key nutrients, particularly Vitamin D (in general), Vitamin B1 (dysautonomia and recurring fevers), and zinc (loss of smell and taste).  Correcting these deficiencies would likely work very well to promote healing.  And according to Dr. Dmitry Kats, there is also at least anecdotal evidence as well that Niacin (Vitamin B3) can be beneficial as well in healing from remnant COVID damage, which is not really surprising given how well it works to treat acute COVID (as he discovered in his RCT study).  Apparently, a good chunk of Long COVID can be considered a virus-induced form or offshoot of pellagra (niacin or NAD+ deficiency), and many of the symptoms of both match up, thus curable with niacin.

As for prophylactic nasal sprays, some are in development as we speak, though not yet commercially available.  Until then, fortunately there is already one that is likely to block the virus while yielding additional health benefits in the meantime.  It is called Xlear, a natural, drug-free saline nasal spray with xylitol and grapefruit seed extract.

See also "A Rational Path Forward" by the folks at Rational Ground as well.

You Lost, Donald. Accept it.

Dear Donald J. Trump,

Look, we all know you lost the election despite all of your skulduggery thus far. Not even your crony Postmaster General could save you from humiliating defeat.  You almost had it in the bag, but now it is all slipping away as we speak.  And having the GALL to actually go to court to attempt to stop legitimate ballot counting from continuing just because you aren't getting your way, is NOT a good look for you at all.

NO ONE likes a sore loser, Donald.  Your already tarnished image will only get that much more so if you continue with this infantile tantrum and charade.

On January 20, 2021, Joe Biden will take your place as President of the United States of America, and you will have to step down whether you like it or not.  If you refuse, Biden will just have you escorted off the premises by the Secret Service like they would any trespasser, and perhaps even the men in the white coats will cart you away as well.  In fact, "5150 at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue" kinda has a nice ring to it.  You can do it the easy way, or the hard way, so you might as well start cleaning out your desk now.  Sad!

As you famously like to say, "YOU'RE FIRED!"  And don't let the door hit you on the way out, loser.

Sincerely, 

We The People 

UPDATE:  As of November 7, 2020, the election has now been called in favor of Biden.  Even Fox News admits it now, as it can no longer be denied anymore.

Congratulations, President-Elect Joe Biden and Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris!  You did it!

The Difference Between Naive and Stupid

Well, it's official.  Several European countries are now back to lockdown once again.  It seems nearly every country not named Sweden or Belarus is blindly copying one another to one degree or another now just like before.  And even on this side of the proverbial pond, there are still plenty of folks eager to copy them if allowed the chance.  They clearly didn't learn the first time that lockdowns simply don't work, and do far more harm than good on balance.   

The first time they did it, they were naive at best, but the second time is just plain stupid.  The first time was an argument from ignorance, while the second time is an argument from thick-headedness.

Hey geniuses, wanna know why you are getting a second wave of the virus now?  Let us count the ways:

1.  You are testing much more than during the first wave, often many times more.
2.  You are using such a high PCR cycle threshold that creates far too many false positives.
3.  You are still quite liberal with what you define as a COVID death.
4. "Mitigation fatigue" is all too real, and viruses gonna virus regardless.
5.  And last but not least, your lockdowns the first time merely postponed the inevitable.  Really.  Whether you shaved off a little bit from the first wave (like the UK) or nearly suppressed the first wave entirely (like Czechia), guess what?  You are getting right now exactly what you had postponed earlier, except now during flu season.  A real genius move, guys. 

And before you say "But Sweden is getting a second wave too!", take a look at the hard data on Worldometer or Our World In Data.  Cases are apparently way up in recent weeks, yes, but hospitalizations are only modestly up, and deaths are still largely crawling along the baseline, having had no excess deaths since July and on track to have a below-normal flu season.  Whatever their second wave, it does not appear to be particularly deadly, and they are currently in a much better position than nearly all the rest of Europe as they head into winter.

UPDATE:  And yes, COVID-19 apparently does have a strong seasonality to it in both the USA and Europe, which is of course a double-edged sword.  As for Sweden, deaths are apparently up, but still no excess deaths since all-cause mortality remains largely in the normal range per EUROMOMO.  After all, "excess" is relative.  And also, where did the flu go?  It seems that in practically every country, including Sweden, it seems to have mysteriously vanished for some reason.  Things that (should) make you go, hmmmm.

As for Finland and Norway, who still have some of the lowest COVID death rates in the Western world, keep in mind that both countries were actually LESS stringent than Sweden for the majority of the pandemic (i.e. from May until early November).

The UK's Lockdown 2.0 and the subsequent perpetual lockdown-in-all-but-name appear to have not done a lick of good at all in terms of the number or timing of COVID cases, hospitalizations, or deaths.  It appears to be at best irrelevant to the virus, if not perverse.

Banning all or practically all mixing between households, especially at this very late stage of the pandemic, is utterly risible if it weren't so tragic.  News flash, for most of the pandemic there has been, and still is today, far more transmission within households than between them, and not primarily driven by children or asymptomatic spread either.  Once the proverbial genie is out of the bottle, such government overreach is simply a cruel joke.

And meanwhile, several US states are in fact backsliding towards lockdown once again, with practically all states except Florida and South Dakota tightening restrictions at least somewhat since September.  Riddle me this:  if it worked so well the first time, why are we doing it again?  If it did NOT work the first time, why are we doing it again?

In fact, going into the holiday season, Florida is actually doing better than the national average now in spite of barely any restrictions since September 25, and both North and South Dakota have peaked and declined organically since mid-November despite mild/late (ND) or no (SD) restrictions, around the same time as the stricter Midwestern states.  California, on the other hand, is not doing so hot at all.

Even Georgia, notably first out the gate to lift restrictions and reopen in general and also first out the gate to reopen schools statewide, was not the disaster that was predicted, and seven months later they are....average compared to the rest of the country.  And sadly while both Dakotas are now cumulatively among the top ten worst states in terms of deaths per capita, the timing of their admittedly severe but very late outbreaks and decline of same does not show any relevance to policy measures.

JANUARY 2021 UPDATE:  Looks like Sweden did unfortunately have low to moderate excess weekly deaths for several weeks in a row in late November, December, and early January per EUROMOMO.  But they still had far less than they did during their first wave and significantly less than most European countries did during their second wave, especially the UK (again), Spain (again), Belgium (again), Italy (again), France, Portugal, and much less than Czechia and Slovenia as well.  And it began much later as well.  2020 seems to have been Sweden's worst year for all-cause deaths since 2012, and fairly comparable to 2015, while some other countries in contrast had their worst year in decades.  And it looks like Sweden's second wave is almost over now, with cases now plummeting despite it being the middle of winter.  Meanwhile, Florida and California are both shaping up to be about average among US states on a cumulative basis despite taking polar opposite approaches to their epidemics, kinda like how Sweden and France are both around the European average as well.  As the old saying goes, that's why you never call the winner at halftime.

Regardless of what NPIs were done, it appears that the winter wave is now in rapid retreat worldwide in nearly every country, well before the vaccines would have had much if any effect.  Reducing the cycle threshold for PCR testing and/or making testing more targeted per revised WHO guidance has likely played a role in many countries and US states, but enough naturally-acquired herd immunity to bend the curve down has also most likely been achieved as well.

Note that other endemic coronaviruses (i.e. common cold viruses) tend to peak seasonally in January or so and then sharply decline afterwards.  Thus, the decline of this virus will most likely continue through the spring and summer as well, give or take a possible March secondary peak in some places perhaps.

(And again, where did the flu go?  Hmmmm....)

So what do you call it when you do the same thing over and over and expect different results?

Ridin' With Biden Is The ONLY Way To Dump Trump

With just a week to go until Election Day (November 3rd), we at the TSAP urge you all NOT to throw your vote away or choose not to vote!  Don't make the same mistake as last time, folks.  This means YOU, Bernie or Busters!  Yes, we know that Bernie was a better choice than Biden, just like he was a better choice than Hillary.  But we all saw what happened last time when you made the perfect the enemy of the good--we ultimately ended up with neither.

In most states, you have three options: Election Day voting in person, early voting in person, or mail-in voting.  There is really no excuse not to vote this year.

Republicans will try to cheat, of course, and suppress likely Democratic voters, but that only works when an election is close.  If all eligible voters actually voted for once, it would be an overwhelming blue wave, and the Republicans would not stand a chance even with all of the cheating in the world.  Seriously.

So go do your civic duty and VOTE!!!  Do it like your life depends on it, because in one way or another, sooner or later, it will.

Time Is Running Out To Avert A Lost Decade Of Depression

With the effect of the federal CARES Act stimulus bill currently wearing off and people running out of money even as there are still not enough jobs for those who need them, the American economy and the American people (especially the poor and most vulnerable) will be in for an even greater world of hurt for the foreseeable future if we don't act very, very fast.  And not just America, but the whole world in fact is heading for a similar fate as well.

Sit down.  We are essentially looking at the prospect of not just a recession or even a depression, but a lost decade or more.  Within a few years or so the top 1% will fully recover and then some, enjoying a second Roaring Twenties of sports, while the bottom 99% would be mired in a second Greater Depression for a very, very long time.  The ultimate K-shaped recovery.  And time is running out to prevent the worst from happening, with yesterday not being soon enough!

Thus, a very, very big stimulus is necessary right now to prevent a long-term, full-blown depression of epic proportions.  Depressions are fundamentally caused by a shortage of money.  After all, GDP is literally just a spending measure, and most of that is consumer spending and government spending.  The caveat, of course, is that not even all the money in the world could fill (and can barely even briefly paper over) the inherently massive hole left in a shuttered-by-fiat economy until after the economy is fully reopened, at least not for very long.  Thus, the TSAP recommends the following steps be taken, yesterday:

• Expand the original $600 per week to ALL Americans period, not just those receiving unemployment benefits, no strings attached.  Anyone with an SSN or ITIN gets it.  Maintain such payments until at least January 2021.
• Create a permanent UBI for all Americans, of $230 per week ($1000 per month) for adults and half that amount for children and young people under 18, for when the temporary extra $600 finally expires.  Again, no strings attached.
• Pass the HEROES Act and all of its associated stimuli, not the cheap Republican knockoff version.  After all, without essential workers, civilization would have collapsed by now, so it is literally the LEAST we can do to thank them.  But failing that, at least pass SOME stimulus bill already!
• Extend the eviction moratorium until January 1, 2021 or until enough of the funds from the above are disbursed into the pockets of the people so they can pay enough to avoid eviction, whichever occurs later.  Consider also cancelling (and directly compensating  landlords with federal funds) rent for all past due rent dating from March 1 until October 1.
• More funding to shore up small businesses, which are the very bedrock of the economy.
• Keep the US Postal Service running with whatever federal funds are necessary.
• Increase aid to the states, and funding for hospitals as well.  And while we're at it, implement Medicare For All as well.
• Pass the Essential Worker's Bill of Rights.
• Three words:  Green New Deal.
• And of course, open up fully and DON'T shut down again! Like, EVER.

As for the so-called National Debt, that is really a non-problem for a Monetarily Sovereign government like our federal government, since they can literally just print the money.  And right now we have far more to worry about from deflation than we would from inflation.  Even if inflation did occur, all the federal government would have to do is resolve the shortages in goods and services that caused it, by directly purchasing such goods and services at a premium and selling (or giving) them at a loss.  And failing that, the FERAL Reserve (which, we gotta say, has been doing the heaviest financial lifting in terms of shoring up the economy just enough to prevent a total collapse thus far) can always raise interest rates and/or the reserve ratio (both of which are at rock-bottom levels), sell bonds to shrink its massive balance sheet (Quantitative Tightening), and/or drain and sterilze excess bank reserves if and when the "inflation dragon" ever does rear its ugly head at some point.  Thus, it would really be a non-problem.

That is, of course, with that caveat again: as long as we still have an economy to produce sufficient goods and services to act as the de-facto backing of our currency.  Thus, the idea that we can somehow return to a prolonged lockdown and hope to print enough money to paper over such a massive hole in the long run is physically and metaphysically untenable, as Argentina is currently learning the hard way.  Over 200 days of lockdown (to one degree or another) and counting, borderline hyperinflation (again!), and yet still utterly unable to conquer the virus (though not for lack of trying).  If that's "success", we would really hate to see what failure looks like.

So what are we waiting for? 

The TSAP's Updated "Back To True Normal" Plan

The True Spirit of America Party (TSAP) has since April strongly opposed lockdowns, or at least those that were excessive and/or lasting beyond the initial "15 days to flatten the curve", and strongly supported a phased reopening sooner than later.   That does not make us "COVID deniers" or right-wingers or anything like that, just supporters of basic common sense and human rights.  We have always taken this pandemic seriously, and support following the actual science, but we know that panicking and throwing the wisdom of the ages out the window like most of the world did back in March (and many places are still doing) has proven to do far more harm than good.

We originally proposed four phases of reopening:   Phase 1, Phase 2, Phase 3, and Phase Out.  And essentially all of the USA should have entered Phase Out by July 4, 2020 ("Reborn on the Fourth of July") at the latest per our original plan.

As of October 2020, the TSAP current supports the entire USA (all 50 states and all territories) to be in Phase Out.  Our current definition of Phase Out is roughly equivalent to Florida's current Phase 3 (i.e. everything reopened at full capacity, and generally pre-empting stricter restrictions at the local level), but with the following modifications:

• Until January 1, 2021, a hard limit of 500 people should remain in effect for all non-business and non-school gatherings that do not have numbered seats.  Indoor or quasi-indoor gatherings shall have a limit of 50, albeit with some exceptions.
• From November 4, 2020 onward, certain events that have numbered seats may exceed this threshold, provided that adequate physical distancing and airflow/ventilation are present, along with other precautions.
• Just because 100% capacity is permissible, that does NOT mean that it is OK to exceed 100%.  Existing health and fire codes from before the pandemic should be strictly enforced.
• Stricter restrictions may be imposed for limited times (two to three weeks) on local and carefully-defined "red zones" where significant local outbreaks are known to be occurring.  All areas are "green zones" by default unless such outbreaks are proven to be occurring.
• In green zones, no mask mandates outside of healthcare settings, except perhaps very narrowly-defined ones such as public transit and polling places until January 1, 2021.  Otherwise voluntary.  Red zones can still have broad mask mandates lasting no more than a few weeks.
• After January 1, 2021, no restrictions except in any bona fide red zones that remain.

It is long past time to phase out our COVID restrictions and return to the true normal.  And of course, refurbish the rule of law--something these arbitrary restrictions make an utter mockery of.

UPDATE:  See also here for a good piece on a rational reopening guide that fully respects individual rights, written by Megan Mansell at Rational Ground.  Additionally, the TSAP also recommends mathematically ending the "casedemic" problem by swiftly lowering the PCR testing cycle threshold to at most 34 amplification cycles, if not 30, to be considered positive, and also confirming all positives with a retest. Currently, many labs do as much as 40 or even more still, causing numerous false positives.

And speaking of Florida, more than a month after Florida went to Phase 3 on September 25, one can see from a cursory look at Worldometer that since then, their trends in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have been virtually identical to those of California.  That is, one of the currently most open states in the USA has virtually identical trends to the very least open state as of November. Ditto for wide-open Georgia with no state or local mask mandate and also (with the notable exception of unusually hard-hit El Paso) wide-open Texas with a mask mandate still in effect.  It's almost like the virus really doesn't care about our policies at all, at least in the long run.

Seasonality, however, does appear to be a very real, and razor-sharp, double-edged sword.  Perhaps the idea of allowing a "safe spread summer" (instead of artificially suppressing it and inevitably pushing it into the fall and winter) wasn't so crazy after all?

And as of mid-November, California's trends have actually become worse than Florida's, even shattering their own previous case records despite increasingly tight restrictions in the former and the latter still being wide open.  Really makes you think.

The TSAP Supports The Great Barrington Declaration

More than six months after the COVID lockdowns and related restrictions began in March, it is becoming increasingly clear that that such an unprecedented "strategy" wasn't really the wisest idea, to put it mildly.  In fact, it was not even really a strategy so much as a panic move that was only supposed to last two or three weeks and was based on the (later revealed to be false) premise that it was somehow utterly necessary to keep hospitals from being overrun.  Fair enough, I guess.  But then they subtly moved the goalposts to a pipe-dream "zero COVID" strategy with no end in sight, which quite frankly makes about as much sense as a "zero flu" strategy.  If that isn't mission creep, I really don't know what is.  And such a sledgehammer approach really hasn't worked very well, and has had far too much collateral damage.  The "cure" was worse than the disease.

That's why a group of distinguished infectious disease experts (Prof. Sunetra Gupta, Prof. Martin Kulldorf, and Prof. Jay Bhattacharya) have come up with the Great Barrington Declaration, which calls for a change in strategy to what they call Focused Protection, in which young and healthy people (who are statistically at similar or less risk from COVID as they are from seasonal flu, traffic accidents, etc.) essentially go back to the true normal and build up herd immunity while carefully protecting older and more vulnerable people (who are at far greater risk) in the meantime, and still respecting human rights.

Sweden basically did such a strategy for the most part, as did some US states like South Dakota, and to a lesser extent Florida, Georgia, Texas, etc.  And despite being hit rather hard, they did not turn out worse than many of the strictest lockdown countries and states, but rather closer to the middle of the pack. Controversial and imperfect as that strategy may be, honestly in the long run it is really the only way out of this pandemic nightmare for good at this point, and we just have to accept that.  It is simply an inevitable outcome, and any safe and effective vaccine will come too late.  As for treatments, they apparently already exist, and many have existed for decades now.

(For more practically detailed versions of this general strategy, devised months ago, see here and here by Bill Sardi, as well as here by Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai.)

Objections can be very easily debunked here, by the way.  It is not a left-wing vs. right-wing thing, or even solely for libertarians, as a strong communitarian case can also be made for such a strategy as well.  Thus, it is more properly thought of as a humanitarian imperative that transcends politics.

Thus, the TSAP hereby supports the Great Barrington Declaration, with the caveats that its words not be misinterpreted and that such protections of the vulnerable be largely voluntary, nuanced, and not too heavy-handed.  It's not that COVID-19 shouldn't be taken seriously (it should be!), but we need to keep things in proportion, as a disproportionate response does far more harm than good in the long run.

As the authors of the declaration so eloquently say, "Public health is not simply the absence of disease.  Together we can restore it in full.  Do it now!"  And we at the TSAP couldn't agree more.

So what are we waiting for?  Let's stop making the perfect the enemy of the good, and get real already.

UPDATE: Dr. Mikko Panunio of Finland adds that Vitamin D may very well be the silver bullet we've all been looking for, reducing not only death rates from COVID but also likely slowing the transmission of the virus as well according to recent studies, effectively creating a sort of quasi-herd immunity in the meantime.  Thus, recommending Vitamin D supplements to the general population would be an excellent and highly practical addition to the Great Barrington Declaration strategy for returning to the true normal sooner than later.  This advice echoes Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai's and Bill Sardi's advice (which also notably include Vitamin A, Vitamin C, zinc, quercetin, selenium, etc. as well as Vitamin D) given months ago.  Too bad it took over six months for such an idea to even begin to enter into the mainstream, as far too many lives have been cut short and/or ruined from both COVID as well as the wrongheaded countermeasures that did more harm than good.

And regardless, it bears repeating:  the critics' apocalyptic estimates of mass death that would allegedly result from the Great Barrington Declaration strategy relative to the status quo can be very easily debunked by noting that 1) the status quo at best delays the inevitable and still presents us with all of the exact same dilemmas the critics rail against, but with added collateral damage on top of it, and 2) yet another study confirms that the actual infection fatality rate of 0.1-0.3% is globally far lower than the doomsayers claim it is, more like a really bad flu season, albeit with very wide variation and nuance.  Even the WHO inadvertently admitted as much.  And as of October 8, the WHO did a startling about-face and now strongly discourages the use of lockdowns due to their truly massive collateral damage.

Most ironically of all, the Great Barrington Declaration strategy is not at all unorthodox, but rather simply a reversion to the scientific community's time-tested pandemic playbook which prevailed for nearly a century up until the powers that be panicked and summarily threw it out the window in March 2020.  And in that playbook, large-scale quarantines and closures were dismissed as ineffective and counterproductive for these types of pandemics.  It is only because the Overton window shifted so much and so quickly that yesterday's heresies became today's orthodoxies practically overnight.  And now is our chance to shift it back to its rightful place, and yesterday is not soon enough.

Please note that the authors of the GBD have added an informative FAQ for clarification and more detail.  It should go without saying of course, but neither the TSAP nor the GBD authors advocate or condone anyone deliberately getting infected or infecting others.  Fortunately, the idea that this is a widespread practice (via "COVID parties" or otherwise) is apparently just another urban legend.  Which is good, because we want the effective herd immunity threshold to kick in at as low a level as possible, with as little overshoot as possible, thus minimizing total casualties of all varieties.  So keep calm and carry on, but still keep washing your hands, don't touch your face, stay home when you're sick, stay away from anyone who is sick or thought to be infected, and all that jazz regardless.  That is, use common sense.

See also "A Rational Path Forward" by the folks at Rational Ground as well.

As for how long immunity lasts, see here.

2021 UPDATE:  See the rebuttal here to the specious claims against the GBD.

Six Months Is More Than Enough

Here's a good (anti-)joke for you: What do Julius Caesar and America as we knew it have in common?  Both died on the Ides of March (aka March 15).

What is the cruelest April Fools joke in all of recorded history? "Fifteen days to flatten the curve", which began on March 16, 2020 (and by it's very own definition, should have ended April 1, 2020.)  

And six months later, in most of the country we are still not anywhere close to being back to normal, despite having "flattened the curve" months ago.  Not the New Abnormal, but rather the true normal.  America is almost a completely different country now than we were just a little over six months ago.

Keep in mind that the original strategy of "flatten the curve" was a very modest and short-term one:  to slow the spread of the virus just enough so that the same number of patients will arrive at the hospital but staggered out over a longer period of time rather than all at once, so hospitals would not be overwhelmed.  DONE.  Then, by early April, in a swift moving of the proverbial goalposts and mission creep, the strategy morphed into a suppression and elimination ("zero COVID") strategy.  Which is unrealistic once the proverbial horse is out of the barn, of course. Ditto with trying to suppress it until the vaccine, which may take years or never come at all, and will most likely not be the silver bullet that people hope it is.

All at a truly massive social and economic cost, the likes of which have not been seen since the 18...nevers.  For a disease which, for the most part, is in the ballpark of a strong seasonal flu in terms of deadliness and overall severity.  We may very well see that lockdowns and related measures will have actually caused more deaths than COVID itself ever could, making the "cure" far worse than the disease.

In any case, there were really only two choices:  transmission now, or transmission later.  Or more likely, a bit of both.  And many countries got the worst of all worlds by choosing lockdown. When it comes to viruses, you can run, but you can't hide.  At least not for very long, as nature always finds a way, even if such ways may not always be fully understood.  The ox may be slow, but the Earth is very patient indeed.

Thus, as the ever-insightful Dr. John Lee notes, the only viable strategy at this point is learning to live with the virus, kinda like we do with the flu and stuff like that.  That way the pandemic will simply end the same way others before it have ended, with herd immunity and attenuation (weakening) of the virus itself, after circulating so much. Meanwhile, as we noted in a previous post, we have also learned how best to treat the disease and prevent the very worst outcomes for the most part.  And the virus is currently fizzling out on it's own all over the world as we speak, including the USA, as we are already in the endgame now.  ("Casedemics" from increased testing, false positives, and lagged legacy deaths notwithstanding.)

Apparently a lot of people don't like the term "herd immunity" because it contains the word "herd".  No problem, we can simply call it "population immunity", "community immunity", "collective resistance", "community resistance", "heterogeneous group resistance", "saturation", or perhaps our favorite, "The Final Countdown", named after that famous Swedish song from the 1980s.  Either way, it is not a "strategy" so much as an inevitable fact, kinda like gravity.  And delaying it for too long ultimately hurts the vulnerable in the long run, by increasing their chances of exposure, to say nothing of the very harmful effects of extended isolation and loneliness. 

And such wrongheaded measures to delay it also end up disproportionately hurting the poor and working classes, a fortiori for people of color, who are bearing a disproportionate share of not only the massive social and economic costs of lockdowns, but also the inevitable burden of building collective immunity as well, while the elites easily "shelter in place" and work from home in their ivory towers.

Thus, it's long past time to lift or phase out the many authoritarian restrictions (which were largely ineffective) put in place that would've been unthinkable as recently as February 2020.  That is not to say that people should not continue taking precautions to one degree or another, but the time for such top-down coercion has come and gone long ago.

Let America Be America Again!

P.S.  This is NOT a left-wing vs. right-wing thing, so let's not fall into that trap.  In fact, our position is really the only genuinely progressive position there is overall, especially when combined with other progressive priorities like UBI and Medicare For All.