Time Is Running Out To Avert A Lost Decade Of Depression

With the effect of the federal CARES Act stimulus bill currently wearing off and people running out of money even as there are still not enough jobs for those who need them, the American economy and the American people (especially the poor and most vulnerable) will be in for an even greater world of hurt for the foreseeable future if we don't act very, very fast.  And not just America, but the whole world in fact is heading for a similar fate as well.

Sit down.  We are essentially looking at the prospect of not just a recession or even a depression, but a lost decade or more.  Within a few years or so the top 1% will fully recover and then some, enjoying a second Roaring Twenties of sports, while the bottom 99% would be mired in a second Greater Depression for a very, very long time.  The ultimate K-shaped recovery.  And time is running out to prevent the worst from happening, with yesterday not being soon enough!

Thus, a very, very big stimulus is necessary right now to prevent a long-term, full-blown depression of epic proportions.  Depressions are fundamentally caused by a shortage of money.  After all, GDP is literally just a spending measure, and most of that is consumer spending and government spending.  The caveat, of course, is that not even all the money in the world could fill (and can barely even briefly paper over) the inherently massive hole left in a shuttered-by-fiat economy until after the economy is fully reopened, at least not for very long.  Thus, the TSAP recommends the following steps be taken, yesterday:

• Expand the original $600 per week to ALL Americans period, not just those receiving unemployment benefits, no strings attached.  Anyone with an SSN or ITIN gets it.  Maintain such payments until at least January 2021.
• Create a permanent UBI for all Americans, of $230 per week ($1000 per month) for adults and half that amount for children and young people under 18, for when the temporary extra $600 finally expires.  Again, no strings attached.
• Pass the HEROES Act and all of its associated stimuli, not the cheap Republican knockoff version.  After all, without essential workers, civilization would have collapsed by now, so it is literally the LEAST we can do to thank them.  But failing that, at least pass SOME stimulus bill already!
• Extend the eviction moratorium until January 1, 2021 or until enough of the funds from the above are disbursed into the pockets of the people so they can pay enough to avoid eviction, whichever occurs later.  Consider also cancelling (and directly compensating  landlords with federal funds) rent for all past due rent dating from March 1 until October 1.
• More funding to shore up small businesses, which are the very bedrock of the economy.
• Keep the US Postal Service running with whatever federal funds are necessary.
• Increase aid to the states, and funding for hospitals as well.  And while we're at it, implement Medicare For All as well.
• Pass the Essential Worker's Bill of Rights.
• Three words:  Green New Deal.
• And of course, open up fully and DON'T shut down again! Like, EVER.

As for the so-called National Debt, that is really a non-problem for a Monetarily Sovereign government like our federal government, since they can literally just print the money.  And right now we have far more to worry about from deflation than we would from inflation.  Even if inflation did occur, all the federal government would have to do is resolve the shortages in goods and services that caused it, by directly purchasing such goods and services at a premium and selling (or giving) them at a loss.  And failing that, the FERAL Reserve (which, we gotta say, has been doing the heaviest financial lifting in terms of shoring up the economy just enough to prevent a total collapse thus far) can always raise interest rates and/or the reserve ratio (both of which are at rock-bottom levels), sell bonds to shrink its massive balance sheet (Quantitative Tightening), and/or drain and sterilze excess bank reserves if and when the "inflation dragon" ever does rear its ugly head at some point.  Thus, it would really be a non-problem.

That is, of course, with that caveat again: as long as we still have an economy to produce sufficient goods and services to act as the de-facto backing of our currency.  Thus, the idea that we can somehow return to a prolonged lockdown and hope to print enough money to paper over such a massive hole in the long run is physically and metaphysically untenable, as Argentina is currently learning the hard way.  Over 200 days of lockdown (to one degree or another) and counting, borderline hyperinflation (again!), and yet still utterly unable to conquer the virus (though not for lack of trying).  If that's "success", we would really hate to see what failure looks like.

So what are we waiting for?