Still More Evidence That Lockdowns Are Worse Than Useless

Yet another study comparing various countries and US states now finds that not only do lockdowns NOT save lives on balance, they actually lead to MORE excess deaths in the long run.  And contrary to the sunk-cost fallacy, the longer the lockdown, the more excess deaths.  So once again, we (quite unsurprisingly by now) see that lockdowns are not only useless, but actually worse than useless.  And the lockdown zealots thus have a lot of blood on their hands, no matter how much they try to deny, wish, handwave, obfuscate, or virtue-signal it away.

Excess deaths of course are not only from COVID, but also includes numerous "collateral" deaths as well due to delayed or denied medical treatment, poverty, starvation, loneliness/isolation, suicide, substance abuse, domestic violence, child abuse, elder abuse, and things like that.  Either way, a net increase in excess deaths regardless of cause means that lockdown has well and truly backfired on balance.

No honest cost-benefit analysis could dispute that.  The very best lockdowns can do is merely delay infections a bit, which we ultimately end up having to pay for later.  And once the virus is already fairly widespread, the supposedly inverse correlation between lockdowns and infections has been shown to be essentially spurious even in the short run too.  That is, they tend to impose or tighten restrictions at or close to the peak of infections, and often after it has already begun to slow down and decline on its own, and likewise tend to lift or loosen them close to the nadir of such infections.  It is basically like doing a sun dance at 5:30 am and then speciously taking credit for it when the sun comes up.

To put it another way, if lockdown were a drug, it would never have been approved, as it has proven to be not only no better than a placebo, but in fact the "cure" is clearly worse than the disease itself.  

I mean, it's not like Team Reality hasn't been pointing all of this out repeatedly since, well, 15 months ago.  Even the later-onset skeptics who initially (naively and regrettably) supported some flavor of lockdown in the thick fog of pandemic understood that it was supposed to be both a short-term, last resort, second chance kind of policy, not an indefinite own-goal or end in itself.  Little did they know, Team Apocalypse and the powers that be had other plans though.

And once it became bleeding obvious that the horse was well out of the barn and that "Zero COVID" was thus a pipe dream at best, then the Plan B of herd immunity thus became inevitable.  The only question left was how to get there with the minimum number of casualties overall.  As the Great Barrington Declaration has repeatedly noted, lockdown is functionally the same thing as "let it rip" in practice, only a bit slower, a lot more painful, and with more collateral damage, while Focused Protection of the most vulnerable members of society is clearly the least-worst way to get there, particularly when also combined with early treatment and prophylaxis.

Lockdowns are also extremely classist as well, disproportionately shifting the burden of both disease AND collateral damage from the rich onto to the poor and working class, while making the rich even richer.  They rob from the poor, give to the rich, and hollow out what is left of the middle class, with the elites literally making a killing off of the rest of us.  How anyone on the left who identifies as anything even remotely close to progressive could possibly support that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Thus, they are actually REgressives.

It is long past time to go "cold turkey" and end all of these restrictions and the declared "state of emergency" that props it all up.  More and more places are ending it.  And yesterday is not soon enough.  So what the hell are we waiting for?

UPDATE:  The very same Youyang Gu whose COVID model has consistently been the most accurate if all during this pandemic, has notably also found (when comparing US states) that while there was no correlation between the Oxford Stringency Index and COVID death rates, he did find a rather strong correlation with higher unemployment rates.  Once again, we find that these lockdowns and related restrictions are essentially all pain and no gain.

And again, there is no good reason for anyone on the political left to support lockdowns either.  Period.

The Case For (Very Gingerly!) Raising Interest Rates Now

Inflation seems to be back.  Not severe (yet), but some experts are concerned nonetheless.  The very long-term risk is still in the direction of deflation, as we have argued before, but the short to medium-term risk now seems to favor inflation.  And inflation is fundamentally caused by shortages, not "money printing" like the fiscal hawks luuurrrrve to claim.

The solution, however, is NOT to implement austerity measures, which only cause recessions and depressions. Rather, as Rodger Malcolm Mitchell notes, the solution is for the federal government to spend more money to alleviate the shortages.  Whatever there is a shortage of, they can buy at a premium and sell or give away at a loss, thus incentivizing production.  Everything from lumber to labor can be alleviated this way.   In the case of labor, they should permanently replace long and generous unemployment benefits with a no-strings-attached UBI for all and perhaps also a "reverse payroll tax" (aka wage subsidy) for workers.  And shorten any future unemployment benefit claims to a maximum of 13 weeks per benefit year going forward.  

Problem solved. 

But what about inflationary expectations, where both demand-pull and cost-push inflation seem to feed on itself in a vicious cycle? The solution is simple again: the Fed can raise interest rates.  The TSAP supports tapering off QE and very gingerly raising the Fed Funds Rate from it's current 0% to 0.5% immediately, then to 1.0% shortly after, then gradually by 0.25% every few weeks until the inflation rate drops below 3% or the interest rate exceeds the inflation rate by 1%, whichever occurs sooner.  Then once inflation is beaten, they should drop the interest rate to below the inflation rate and park it there until inflation heats up again as leaving it too high for too long can make cost-push inflation worse.  That should quickly nip any inflationary expectations in the bud right away.

But we should not let inflation be an excuse to avoid progressive priorities, and should certainly avoid austerity measures or any tax hikes at this time, except on the top 1% and especially the top 0.1%.  The economy is booming due to both reopening as well as the various stimulus measures, but the recovery is as fragile as it is K-shaped and uneven.  So let's not screw that up!  And most certainly, never lock down again!

AUGUST UPDATE:  The TSAP now recommends tapering off the current "not-QE-but-most-certainly-QE" much quicker and also raising interest rates (Fed Funds Rate) immediately to at least 0.5-1.0%, as inflation still seems to be accelerating and does not seem to be automatically curing itself.  Also, the Fed should quickly restore the reserve ratio to 5% and then 10%, and if that still doesn't work, raise interest rates further and/or resume Quantitative Tightening (QT).  The sooner they act, the less inflation there will be.  So what are they waiting for?

For fiscal policy, the extended and expanded unemployment benefit payments are soon to be yanked automatically, and all that suspended rent for millions of people has just abruptly come due, so for better or worse that should cool things off a bit.  Any further rent relief for those who still need it should come in the form of temporary direct payments to landlords, not eviction moratoriums.  If there is to be a debt jubilee it should be for everyone, not just some people.  And a tax hike on the top 1% and especially the top 0.1% would be good to do.

Britannia Waives The Rules! NOT

It was announced today that the UK's final reopening step in removing the last remaining restrictions, scheduled for June 21st, will most likely be delayed for "up to" (read: at least) another four weeks.  The latest excuse is that the supposedly much worse Indian Delta variant of the virus is spreading like wildfire in the UK.  Yes, "cases" (i.e. positive tests) are up per the official numbers, but I think we have all seen this movie before, and it's never ended well:

Come on, Boris, stop being such a wee-willy wanker and grow a pair already!  What happened to that fun-loving libertarian you once were just 15 months ago?  And ask yourself, if the Delta variant is so much more contagious, why isn't it spreading like wildfire in the many other countries in which it has been detected for as long as the UK, including, but not limited to, the USA?  Don't think too hard, though--you don't wanna fry the few brain cells you still have left, buddy.

(OK, granted there is Nepal, but they are an outlier.)

Look, practically all of the vulnerable members of society are either 1) fully vaccinated or 2) chose not to get the vaccine.  In fact, the UK has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, as does the USA (who the UK just caught up to recently).  Fully 80% of British adults (70% in Scotland) have measurable levels of antibodies, from vaccination, previous infections, or both.  If that is not herd immunity, I really don't know what is.  Besides, we know the virus is sharply seasonal, and it is now out of season.  So the odds of the NHS being overwhelmed this summer are practically zero.  Hospitalizations are still largely flat despite the rise in "cases", and though up slightly in some places they are are still nowhere near the first or second wave levels.  And deaths are still not budging.  Thus, COVID-19 has been reduced to a mere nuisance, and mass testing has created a "casedemic".

Even if there were no vaccines, or for those for whom the vaccine may be a dud, we nonetheless have treatments that work (Ivermectin, Budesonide, etc.).  If only the government would allow them, of course.

(Shhhh!  Don't be too loud about Niacin and NAC!  Now THAT would be the ultimate game-changer!  And Vitamin C, D, zinc, and an ionophore like Quercetin.)

We know now that lockdowns and NPIs are worse than useless, and at best you will only push the virus into the fall and winter where when know it is far worse.  Thus, a "safe spread summer" is just what the doctor ordered, even if the vaccines were somehow useless against the new variants (which is not true).  And masks?  Well, maybe chain-link fences are the best defense against mosquitoes, right?  Riiiiight. 

Meanwhile, the USA is largely full steam ahead with reopening and unmasking, many states already did months ago, and we are doing fine over here.  Cases, deaths, and hospitalizations are still falling.  Perhaps us "septic tanks" (Yanks) really do have the right idea now after all?  I think we all know the answer.

So how about it, Boris? Time to send the SAGE bedwetters packing and open up 100% yesterday!

UPDATE:  UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced officially that he will be delaying the final reopening step by "four crucial weeks" until July 19th, while leaving open the possibility of delaying it even longer still in the event of a "far more dangerous variant".  He dangles the carrot of it possibly being shortened to only a two week delay until July 5th (riiiiight!), and also gives the consolation of the 30 person cap on weddings being lifted on June 21st.  But I really wouldn't bet on a full lifting of restrictions anytime soon in Britain, unless of course there are massive and relentless protests along with some very conspicuous civil disobedience there no later than the next week or two.  But of course, under the current regime, that would technically be illegal (wink wink).

Oh, and by the way, if you really read between the lines you will see that COVID is actually becoming......milder.  That is, it is becoming more cold-like in terms of symptoms and significantly less likely to result in hospitalization or death compared to older strains.  And yes, that is the supposedly much worse Delta variant we are talking about, that is now dominant in the UK and will likely eventually become dominant worldwide.  As for being somewhat more contagious, that is most likely true, but remember it only needs to be very slightly more contagious to edge out the competition and become dominant, and estimates of it being 60% more contagious than the Alpha strain are most likely grossly exaggerated.  In a nutshell, the pandemic is over, attenuation of the virus is occurring along with herd immunity, and endemic COVID is now essentially becoming the new common cold in more and more places, following in the footsteps of the four other endemic common-cold coronaviruses (at least one of which, OC43, most likely started out as a pandemic as well).  The fact that this overall good news is being ignored by the mainstream media and government really speaks volumes as to their real agenda of fearmongering, power, and control.  Meanwhile, the USA is already several steps ahead of the UK on the road to true normalcy, and in practice is mostly already there now.

Indeed, it seems that the Delta variant's symptoms for most people are practically identical to hay fever and the common cold, with perhaps a mild hangover thrown in for good measure.  That is, headache, sore throat, runny nose, and/or generally feeling a little bit "off" are reportedly far more common than the classic fever, cough, loss of smell/taste, or shortness of breath that are common with previous strains of the virus.

UPDATE 2:  On June 26th, the March For Freedom had an excellent turnout.  And with Matt Hancock resigning in disgrace for his scandalous hypocrisy in flouting his own rules, thus following in the footsteps of the disgraced Neil "Professor Pantsdown" Ferguson, the regime does not seem to be winning anymore. 

UPDATE 3:  Looks like Delta is already dominant in much of the USA as of July 1, yet overall cases are still not exploding, deaths continue to fall, and hospitalizations remain quite low.  Soon it will be dominant worldwide (if it isn't already), but since the best evidence suggests that it is LESS deadly/nasty than previous strains, that is again actually a blessing in disguise on balance.  Behold, the soon-to-be new common cold.  And you know that Delta is already old news now, as the fearmongers are already talking about the Peruvian Lambda variant now.

And The World's Worst Death Rate Is.....

Quick, which country has the world's worst cumulative per capita COVID death rate?  Sweden? Not even close. Florida? Again, not even close.  New York?  Guess again.  New Jersey?  Formerly true, but not anymore.  Anywhere else in the USA?  Nope, not even South Dakota.  The UK?  Not exactly, though they could've been a contender.  Belgium?  Formerly true, but not anymore.  Hungary?  Again, formerly true, but not now.  Czechia?  Close, but no cigar.  Anywhere in Eastern Europe?  Not anymore.  India?  Raw numbers perhaps, but we're talking per capita here, so no.  So it would have to be Brazil then?  No, but you're getting warmer (both literally and figuratively).....

It is in fact Brazil's lockdown-loving neighbor, Peru.  Again.  They in fact already had that dubious honor for a good chunk of last year, then lost that title for a while, only to get it back today when their cumulative death toll was revised upward by more than double.  Apparently, they had been undercounting their deaths dramatically, hence their massive excess all-cause death rate.  Of course, many of those deaths were undoubtedly due to the collateral damage of one of the world's earliest (for their region), longest, and strictest lockdowns last year, which they are currently having an encore of right now.  Either way, their protracted and brutal lockdown restrictions were clearly an abject failure by any standard. 

World's longest lockdown, world's strictest lockdown (this side of Wuhan), world's earliest lockdown (for their region), and world's worst death rate.  Let that sink in. And their super-strict mask mandate, especially in Lima where face shields were required on top of their masks at least in some settings, clearly didn't do them a lick of good either.

Granted, their widespread poverty, extreme inequality, and government corruption of course made things that much worse in Peru.  But Brazil has had plenty of all three of these social ills for quite a while now, as do many of their other neighbors as well, and they still didn't do as bad as Peru did.

(Throw in some dengue fever and the situation becomes even worse still, especially since social distancing apparently can make that nasty mosquito-borne disease even more likely to spread.)

If daily cases and deaths are finally dropping now, it is literally because the virus is running out of new hosts to infect. Their new revised death rate of over 0.5% of their population is high enough to imply nearly 100% of the population has been infected (or at least exposed) if the infection fatality rate (IFR) is anywhere in the ballpark of 0.5%, which it almost certainly is.  After all, lockdown is functionally the same thing as a "let it rip" strategy, only a bit slower perhaps and that much more painful, with plenty of collateral damage on top of that as well.

Even if it is one that makes Melbourne, Australia look like a walk in the park, apparently.  Why?  Because in practice, a perfect lockdown with perfect timing is extremely difficult if not impossible to pull off for all but the most remote islands, and short of that it clearly does far more harm than good.  

Just when they thought they were finally doing (slightly) better than their wide-open, freedom-loving neighbor Brazil, that had to have been a real kick in the teeth.  Peru must really regret discontinuing their use of Ivermectin and/or HCQ (which Lima sadly did not use even before that) in October, which they did because reasons, and hopefully they started using it once again.  And the parts of Brazil that apparently are still not using it to this day well, they had better start using it yesterday as well.  Seriously.

And lockdown-loving Argentina shouldn't get too smug either, as they seem to be on a similar path as well.  Ditto for several other neighbors too.

While the lockdown zealots can barely seem to contain their glee whenever Brazil's (or any other open country's or state's) death rate ticks up, this is no time for schadenfreude on our part.  Every data point in Peru's horrible death toll is an actual human being killed by a deadly combination of a nasty virus and an authoritarian government's utterly disastrous attempts to contain it, a good chunk of it preventable.

But still, let's see the lockdown zealots in the wealthy countries try to explain this one away.  Their utterly flummoxed reactions and the looks on their faces should lead to very much glee on our part, in fact.  And when they inevitably concede, "Well, poor people can't do lockdown", the best response to that is, "Precisely, so why do you still support lockdowns then?  Do you like seeing poor people die preventable deaths?"  Then they will either change the subject, throw ad hominem attacks, and/or fly into a rage, meaning they clearly lost the argument.

QED

P.S.  Any country that is considering removing or disallowing any of the following from their early treatment and prophylaxis protocols:  Ivermectin, HCQ, zinc, and vitamins, is practically certain to woefully regret that decision within a few weeks.  The latest one to do so is India, ironically, despite Ivermectin clearly working well when and where it was used--hey, are you listening?  I mean, just ask Peru how that worked out.  At least India will still be using budesonide inhalers though for early treatment (but not prophylaxis, which it can't), which are known to cut death and hospitalization rates dramatically.