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Wednesday, June 2, 2021

And The World's Worst Death Rate Is.....

Quick, which country has the world's worst cumulative per capita COVID death rate?  Sweden? Not even close. Florida? Again, not even close.  New York?  Guess again.  New Jersey?  Formerly true, but not anymore.  Anywhere else in the USA?  Nope, not even South Dakota.  The UK?  Not exactly, though they could've been a contender.  Belgium?  Formerly true, but not anymore.  Hungary?  Again, formerly true, but not now.  Czechia?  Close, but no cigar.  Anywhere in Eastern Europe?  Not anymore.  India?  Raw numbers perhaps, but we're talking per capita here, so no.  So it would have to be Brazil then?  No, but you're getting warmer (both literally and figuratively).....

It is in fact Brazil's lockdown-loving neighbor, Peru.  Again.  They in fact already had that dubious honor for a good chunk of last year, then lost that title for a while, only to get it back today when their cumulative death toll was revised upward by more than double.  Apparently, they had been undercounting their deaths dramatically, hence their massive excess all-cause death rate.  Of course, many of those deaths were undoubtedly due to the collateral damage of one of the world's earliest (for their region), longest, and strictest lockdowns last year, which they are currently having an encore of right now.  Either way, their protracted and brutal lockdown restrictions were clearly an abject failure by any standard. 

World's longest lockdown, world's strictest lockdown (this side of Wuhan), world's earliest lockdown (for their region), and world's worst death rate.  Let that sink in. And their super-strict mask mandate, especially in Lima where face shields were required on top of their masks at least in some settings, clearly didn't do them a lick of good either.

Granted, their widespread poverty, extreme inequality, and government corruption of course made things that much worse in Peru.  But Brazil has had plenty of all three of these social ills for quite a while now, as do many of their other neighbors as well, and they still didn't do as bad as Peru did.

(Throw in some dengue fever and the situation becomes even worse still, especially since social distancing apparently can make that nasty mosquito-borne disease even more likely to spread.)

If daily cases and deaths are finally dropping now, it is literally because the virus is running out of new hosts to infect. Their new revised death rate of over 0.5% of their population is high enough to imply nearly 100% of the population has been infected (or at least exposed) if the infection fatality rate (IFR) is anywhere in the ballpark of 0.5%, which it almost certainly is.  After all, lockdown is functionally the same thing as a "let it rip" strategy, only a bit slower perhaps and that much more painful, with plenty of collateral damage on top of that as well.

Even if it is one that makes Melbourne, Australia look like a walk in the park, apparently.  Why?  Because in practice, a perfect lockdown with perfect timing is extremely difficult if not impossible to pull off for all but the most remote islands, and short of that it clearly does far more harm than good.  

Just when they thought they were finally doing (slightly) better than their wide-open, freedom-loving neighbor Brazil, that had to have been a real kick in the teeth.  Peru must really regret discontinuing their use of Ivermectin and/or HCQ (which Lima sadly did not use even before that) in October, which they did because reasons, and hopefully they started using it once again.  And the parts of Brazil that apparently are still not using it to this day well, they had better start using it yesterday as well.  Seriously.

And lockdown-loving Argentina shouldn't get too smug either, as they seem to be on a similar path as well.  Ditto for several other neighbors too.

While the lockdown zealots can barely seem to contain their glee whenever Brazil's (or any other open country's or state's) death rate ticks up, this is no time for schadenfreude on our part.  Every data point in Peru's horrible death toll is an actual human being killed by a deadly combination of a nasty virus and an authoritarian government's utterly disastrous attempts to contain it, a good chunk of it preventable.

But still, let's see the lockdown zealots in the wealthy countries try to explain this one away.  Their utterly flummoxed reactions and the looks on their faces should lead to very much glee on our part, in fact.  And when they inevitably concede, "Well, poor people can't do lockdown", the best response to that is, "Precisely, so why do you still support lockdowns then?  Do you like seeing poor people die preventable deaths?"  Then they will either change the subject, throw ad hominem attacks, and/or fly into a rage, meaning they clearly lost the argument.

QED

P.S.  Any country that is considering removing or disallowing any of the following from their early treatment and prophylaxis protocols:  Ivermectin, HCQ, zinc, and vitamins, is practically certain to woefully regret that decision within a few weeks.  The latest one to do so is India, ironically, despite Ivermectin clearly working well when and where it was used--hey, are you listening?  I mean, just ask Peru how that worked out.  At least India will still be using budesonide inhalers though for early treatment (but not prophylaxis, which it can't), which are known to cut death and hospitalization rates dramatically.

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