Too Late To Avoid A Recession, But Let's NOT Make It Worse!

It looks like it is too late to avoid a recession at this point, as some degree of one is already baked into the cake at this point.  Not only are there several big headwinds right now (rising oil prices, rising insurance rates, record-high credit card debt, student loans coming due, Congressional dysfunction, and the prospect of a government shutdown), but the FERAL Reserve has obstinately kept interest rates high at a Fed Funds Rate of 5.25%.  While it may not seem high by historical standards, combined with their Quantitative  Tightening and record-high levels of debt throughout the economy, it can easily feel like the double-digit interest rates of the late 1970s and early 1980s.  Aside from oil (thanks to Russia and OPEC) and a few other things, which interest rate hikes are utterly useless and even counterproductive against, the recent inflation has already been largely defeated, and may soon turn to deflation.  Which sounds great in theory, but in practice is anything but.

While it is most likely too late to avoid a recession at this point, the very least the Fed could do is cut interest rates yesterday and end Quantitative Tightening to avoid an even worse recession or depression.  Don't say you haven't been warned.

UPDATE: As of September 30, the government shutdown was averted, but the issue was really just delayed by 45 days via a stopgap funding bill.  Additionally, as of early October, crude oil prices began falling but diesel fuel remains stubbornly high for a number of reasons such as a refinery crunch.

We Support The UAW Workers' Strike

The TSAP supports the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike against the Big Three automakers.  The CEOs of these companies, who were already making eight-figure salaries, saw a 46% increase in pay for themselves over the past four years, while the workers got a mere 6% increase, not nearly enough to keep up with inflation.  That, along with their ridiculous "two-tier" pay system for older versus newer employees, is basically a microcosm of all that is wrong with the economy today.  So one can see how the management in other industries is starting to get nervous about the "Hot Labor Summer" spreading to those industries as well.  The plutocracy trembles.

Ever since the PATCO (air traffic controllers union) strike debacle in 1981 under President Ronald Reagan, and all the ripple effects in its aftermath, organized labor has weakened dramatically.  Unions had become such pikers with their demands, which only led them to become even weaker in the face of an all-out assault against the working class from the plutocracy and their sycophantic lackeys in government.  But now, after a very long detour, the tide seems to be finally turning for the better.

It's LONG overdue.  What better time than now?

The Elephant In The Room

Excess deaths have become the proverbial "elephant in the room" around the world in the wake of the pandemic.  But what are the true causal mechanisms behind such deaths?  The virus itself, which was more humdrum than was originally believed, can really only be blamed for a fraction of these deaths, and most of those skewed sharply along an age gradient and underlying condition gradient.  The lockdowns and related countermeasures of course contributed to the excess deaths and did far more harm than good.  Ditto for iatrogenic deaths from faulty treatment protocols and denial and censorship of effective ones.

But why were 2021 and 2022 even worse years for excess deaths than 2020?  Well, enter the jabs.  Adding to the mounting evidence against them is yet another new study implicating them in excess deaths in many countries.  The study finds a "definite causal link" between jab rollouts and all-cause mortality in 17 countries, including countries that had barely any measurable Covid at the time the rollout began.  And most notably, the study finds such links for all types of jabs studied (including the inactivated whole virus ones), not just the worst mRNA ones.  And as we already know, deaths are just the tip of a very large iceberg of harm from these things.

At best, it certainly puts the lie to the specious claim of a net lifesaving effect. 

How much more evidence do we need to finally admit the dark truth about what really happened? 

Dear FERAL Reserve: Cut Interest Rates NOW!

With inflation falling to around 3% per the latest report, which is within the normal range for a growing economy, we can safely conclude that the war on inflation has been won.  The dragon may not have been slain, but it has largely gone back to sleep for the foreseeable future.  Supply chains seem to have long since fully recovered for the most part, while most of the inflation since then has been wanton "greedflation" by mega-corporations consolidating and rigging the game (and thus interest rates are the wrong tool for the job).  And potential recession and even deflation clouds seem to be gathering on the horizon as we speak.  Even if there is no recession, keeping interest rates too high for too long can paradoxically increase inflation in the long run, or one could get the two for one special, as Canada unfortunately learned the hard way in the 1980s.  The "therapeutic window" for hiking interest rates to fight inflation is therefore closed.

Oh, and we have another housing bubble ready to burst at any time, apparently. 

So the FERAL Reserve really needs to stand down, stop raising rates, pause Quantitative  Tightening, and start cutting rates yesterday by at least 1% immediately, and eventually to below the inflation rate.  Or at least no later than their next meeting. Mr. Powell seems to be really begging for a recession (or worse) with his relentless tempting of fate!

This is the LAST chance we have to avoid a major financial crisis and severe deflationary recession (or worse), and that's if it's not already baked into the cake at this point.  Because once that happens, monetary policy (at least by conventional means) will be as utterly futile as pushing on a string.

QED