Tuesday, February 26, 2019

What MMT Gets Wrong, and Monetary Sovereignty Gets Right

Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT, is just starting to break into the edges of the mainstream now.  Progressives from the new rising star Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to the venerable Bernie Sanders are now (correctly) starting to endorse, whether subtly or not-so-subtly, the core tenet of MMT, namely, that federal deficits don't really matter since the federal government can just print the money.  While few are bold enough to say out loud the corollary that federal taxes do not actually pay for federal spending (and that the "national debt" is literally nothing more than deposits in Treasury security accounts), it is nonetheless implied since it follows logically from the premise that the federal government has infinite money.  And Rodger Malcolm Mitchell's related offshoot theory, Monetary Sovereignty (MS), also contains these same truths as well.

But MMT is also seriously flawed in a way that MS is not, and that is how they deal with the inflation question.  MMT prefers to keep interest rates permanently at zero or close to zero, regardless of how much inflation there is, preferring instead to adjust tax rates in response to inflation.  MS, on the other hand, prefers to use interest rates as a way to prevent and cure inflation, as taxes are too crude, too political, and not quick enough to use for inflation control as it happens.  (Note that even modest federal taxes can still work for automatic inflation control in the background without changing the tax rates, as the tax take automatically increases with the velocity of money.)  MMT, in other words, paints itself into a corner, while MS retains the flexibility to deal with inflation as it happens.  Of course, raising interest rates only works to fight demand-pull inflation as opposed to cost-push inflation, but the former is much more sailent than the latter in regards to the (generally overblown) fear of "what if we print too much money?"  The FERAL Reserve can also drain excess bank reserves (i.e. where all excess liquidity eventually shows up sooner or later) and "sterilize" them, as yet another means of inflation control.

In other words, following MMT to the letter will ultimately take us back to where we started at square one in the same box, while MS represents a genuine way out of the box without the pitfalls of MMT.

Thus, while it is probably good to keep interest rates low or even zero as a rule, the flexibility to raise them as needed still needs to remain on the table.  And some sort of federal taxation would need to remain even if not for revenue-raising purposes.  Aside from a crude but automatic background method of inflation prevention, taxes can also give We the People leverage over the oligarchs by providing a handy "carrot and stick" means of controlling the economy to one degree or another.  So let's not box ourselves in with too pure a version of MMT, or throw out the proverbial baby with the bathwater.

Otherwise we will find ourselves, to quote Paul Krugman, "Running on MMT".

Saturday, February 16, 2019

We Have A National Emergency, All Right--And It's Trump

Trump just made himself even more of a man without a country, if that's possible, by declaring a "national emergency" to try to force his stupid border wall to be built.  This is almost certain to be challenged and defeated in court.  Meanwhile, he clearly caved to the Democrats otherwise, yet again.  Thus, his "national emergency" is a sign of desperation and weakness, not strength.  Keep digging your own grave, Donald....

Oh, and by the way--this is literally the kind of stuff that DICTATORS do, NOT Presidents.  Abusing your power by usurping Congress' rightful "power of the purse" just because you don't get your way is absolutely NOT NORMAL in any democracy, especially when the so-called "national emergency" at the southern border is contrived and manufactured from on high by none other than the White House.

And if your are looking for the money to pay for that wall, perhaps the first place you should look is the missing $21 TRILLION (more than the entire US GDP, and until very recently, more than the entire gross National Debt) that the Pentagon somehow "lost" and can't seem to find or even account for.  To minimize it as just an "accounting error" is, albeit ironically, SO CLOSE to actually getting the point of Monetary Sovereignty.  Which is to say you could, you know, "just print the money", in your own words, Donald.  (And yes, he actually said that in reference to the National Debt in 2016.)  Trillion-dollar coins, anyone?

We never thought we would agree for once with the vile Ann Coulter, but apparently even a stopped clock is right twice a day:  "The only national emergency is that our president is an idiot".  Truer words have never been spoken.