The COVID-19 Pandemic Has A Kill Switch. Let's Use It, Yesterday!

DISCLAIMER:  The following article references third-party sources and is intended for general information only, and is NOT intended to provide medical advice or otherwise diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease, including (but not limited to) COVID-19.  Consult a qualified physician before beginning any sort of treatment or prophylactic regimen and/or if you know or suspect that you currently have COVID-19.  Anyone who takes or does anything mentioned (or alluded to) in this or any other TSAP article does so entirely at their own risk and liability.  The TSAP thus makes absolutely no warranties, express or implied, and is not liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages resulting from any act or omission on the part of the reader(s) or others.  Caveat lector.

What if there was a way to end the dreaded COVID-19 pandemic quickly and harmlessly, within a matter of a few weeks at most, without resorting to lockdowns or shutdowns of any kind, and without the need for any sort of vaccine?  Eradication of this soon-to-be-endemic virus is of course practically impossible since that train has left the station long ago, but it can be quite easily reduced to a mere nuisance like the common cold or seasonal flu going forward.  

Of course, in the long run, both "herd immunity" and attenuation (weakening) of the virus itself will do the trick, as an inevitable result of mass natural infection, and we're already pretty damn close, but what do we do in the meantime to make this a far less risky proposition since the virus is, you know, rather nasty and even deadly for some people?  Enter antiviral prophylaxis of some sort.  According to a very good model originally designed for pandemic influenza, this will not only "flatten the curve", but actually CRUSH the curve down hard, more so and faster than even the very best vaccines ever could, as the latter take too much time to roll out en masse and kick in.  And a solution couldn't come soon enough.

So what would this prophylaxis be?  Here is our "kill switch" to sharply reduce not only bad outcomes such as deaths, but also viral transmission as well:

• Vitamin D, first and foremost.
• Vitamin C (preferably liposomal)
• Zinc (including lozenges)
• Quercetin (a zinc ionophore)
• Niacin (Vitamin B3) 
• Thiamine (Vitamin B1)
• Inositol (Vitamin B8)
• Vitamin A (use with caution)
• Melatonin (at night)
• And last but not least, a multivitamin containing selenium, magnesium, copper, and Vitamin E

Really?  Sounds too easy, right?  We thought so too at first, but the evidence just keeps on piling up.  These things all enhance the immune system, tone down the body's harmful overreactions, and/or directly neutralize the virus itself.  And they are safe enough to recommend to the general population, not only those who are designated as "high risk" or "high exposure" (though certainly a fortiori for such folks). And they, among other things, all featured quite prominently in a previous article we wrote about treatment and prophylaxis for COVID-19.  And of course, they also work for many other viruses in general as well.  It is amazing how many people are deficient in many of these nutrients, and also how many of the various symptoms and after-effects thought to be linked to the virus itself may actually be the result of such deficiencies at least in part.

That alone should keep the vast, vast majority of COVID patients out of the hospital.  And for any severe cases that still occur, we already know how to easily treat the most likely complications of secondary bacterial infections, cytokine storms, and blood clots, using antibiotics, corticosteroids, and blood thinners.  And we also know now that ventilators kill more people than they save, and that less invasive means of oxygen therapy work quite well in fact, especially if you don't lay the patients on their backs.  In other words, this is actually a very manageable disease, and the specious idea that it is somehow unmanageable is simply a self-fulfilling prophecy driven by panic and misinformation (if not outright disinformation).

For example, check out the recently updated MATH+ protocol (for hospitalized patients) and the new I-MASK+ protocol (for early treatment and prophylaxis) both from the Front Line Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC).  And see also the recently updated protocol by the Swiss Doctor as well.

To further out-ninja this virus, redirect it away from vulnerable people, and reduce the herd immunity threshold and overshoot, we should take some lessons from the countries that had very low death rates without (or independently of) lockdowns:

• Wash your hands, don't touch your face, cover coughs and sneezes, stay home if sick, avoid people who are currently sick, and all that jazz. Vulnerable people should avoid crowds as much as possible.  You know, common sense, basically.
• Clean and disinfect high-touch surfaces frequently, including your phone.
• Ventilate, ventilate, ventilate indoor spaces as much as possible.
• Do temperature checks to enter public buildings and workplaces, and perhaps for public transportation as well.
• When doing contact tracing, do backward rather than forward tracing.  That works much better given the stochastic nature of this virus.
• When it comes to gatherings of any kind, remember that SIZE MATTERS, as the risk of virus exposure and spread increases exponentially with the number of people present.  This is especially true in enclosed spaces for prolonged periods of time.
• Use face masks judiciously, not superstitiously.  They are filters, not barriers.  Change/clean them as frequently as possible so they don't backfire and become fomites (germ carriers).
• And most importantly, take the proper precautions to stop the nosocomial spread of the virus within hospitals and nursing homes, which account for the lion's share of deaths in many countries, but some countries managed to solve nonetheless.

In other words, take the same precautions you would if you found out that there was a flu outbreak and/or a norovirus outbreak in your neighborhood, community, or workplace.  Because the way it spreads is similar to both types of viruses--and like the latter one, don't neglect the fecal-oral route of transmission.

Of course, thus far we are referring to the actual pandemic, that is, the one that actually produces significant excess deaths.  We haven't discussed how to also quash the massive testing "casedemic" that has been superimposed on top of it.  Here's how to tackle that one going forward as well:

• Reduce the cycle threshold for PCR testing to 30 for standard sensitivity, and perhaps 35 for high sensitivity testing.
• Confirm all positives with a retest before reporting results, especially positives with a cycle threshold >25.
• Test sensitivity is rather overrated, apparently, at least in terms of a tradeoff with speed and frequency.
• Do not include positive antigen (i.e. rapid) tests in reported "cases" unless also confirmed by PCR.
• Do not mix in positive antibody test results as new "cases", as that is comparing apples and oranges.
• Do not count multiple positive tests of the same individual as separate "cases", unless they are at least several months apart.
• Consider restricting virus testing to symptomatic individuals only, except in very sensitive environments such as hospitals and nursing homes.
• Report COVID hospitalizations as such only if the patients are there because of the virus (think CLI, ILI, shortness of breath, and/or pneumonia), not just because they tested positive after being admitted for something unrelated.
• Make sure all deaths designated as COVID deaths really are from COVID. That is, no motor vehicle accidents, gunshot wounds, alligator attacks, deaths of despair, etc. with merely incidental positive tests.
• Report cases by specimen date and deaths by date of death.

And just like that, goodbye pandemic!  And by ending lockdowns and other restrictions and going back to true normal sooner rather than later, we will also prevent any further collateral damage that is the actual root cause of so many excess deaths and so much misery we have seen so far this year.

And there you have it.  Consider this our silver bullet, and golden ticket out of this horrible nightmare for good.  Yesterday is not soon enough.  So what are we waiting for?  Let the real healing begin!

UPDATE:  After perusing some of the links in this article, the reader may wonder why we did not list bromhexine as a treatment and prophylaxis despite it looking rather promising.  The reason is simply because it is unfortunately still not available in the USA, despite it being safe and readily available OTC in almost every country in the world.  And this article is written primarily for an American audience.

One can also add resveratrol to the list as well, as it helps normalize the immune system, and was also found to show effectiveness against a far deadlier member of the coronavirus family, namely MERS.

As for long-haulers (those suffering from longer-term COVID after-effects), many of the reported symptoms sound a lot like those of deficiencies in several of the aforementioned key nutrients, particularly Vitamin D (in general), Vitamin B1 (dysautonomia and recurring fevers), and zinc (loss of smell and taste).  Correcting these deficiencies would likely work very well to promote healing.  And according to Dr. Dmitry Kats, there is also at least anecdotal evidence as well that Niacin (Vitamin B3) can be beneficial as well in healing from remnant COVID damage, which is not really surprising given how well it works to treat acute COVID (as he discovered in his RCT study).  Apparently, a good chunk of Long COVID can be considered a virus-induced form or offshoot of pellagra (niacin or NAD+ deficiency), and many of the symptoms of both match up, thus curable with niacin.

As for prophylactic nasal sprays, some are in development as we speak, though not yet commercially available.  Until then, fortunately there is already one that is likely to block the virus while yielding additional health benefits in the meantime.  It is called Xlear, a natural, drug-free saline nasal spray with xylitol and grapefruit seed extract.

See also "A Rational Path Forward" by the folks at Rational Ground as well.

You Lost, Donald. Accept it.

Dear Donald J. Trump,

Look, we all know you lost the election despite all of your skulduggery thus far. Not even your crony Postmaster General could save you from humiliating defeat.  You almost had it in the bag, but now it is all slipping away as we speak.  And having the GALL to actually go to court to attempt to stop legitimate ballot counting from continuing just because you aren't getting your way, is NOT a good look for you at all.

NO ONE likes a sore loser, Donald.  Your already tarnished image will only get that much more so if you continue with this infantile tantrum and charade.

On January 20, 2021, Joe Biden will take your place as President of the United States of America, and you will have to step down whether you like it or not.  If you refuse, Biden will just have you escorted off the premises by the Secret Service like they would any trespasser, and perhaps even the men in the white coats will cart you away as well.  In fact, "5150 at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue" kinda has a nice ring to it.  You can do it the easy way, or the hard way, so you might as well start cleaning out your desk now.  Sad!

As you famously like to say, "YOU'RE FIRED!"  And don't let the door hit you on the way out, loser.

Sincerely, 

We The People 

UPDATE:  As of November 7, 2020, the election has now been called in favor of Biden.  Even Fox News admits it now, as it can no longer be denied anymore.

Congratulations, President-Elect Joe Biden and Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris!  You did it!

The Difference Between Naive and Stupid

Well, it's official.  Several European countries are now back to lockdown once again.  It seems nearly every country not named Sweden or Belarus is blindly copying one another to one degree or another now just like before.  And even on this side of the proverbial pond, there are still plenty of folks eager to copy them if allowed the chance.  They clearly didn't learn the first time that lockdowns simply don't work, and do far more harm than good on balance.   

The first time they did it, they were naive at best, but the second time is just plain stupid.  The first time was an argument from ignorance, while the second time is an argument from thick-headedness.

Hey geniuses, wanna know why you are getting a second wave of the virus now?  Let us count the ways:

1.  You are testing much more than during the first wave, often many times more.
2.  You are using such a high PCR cycle threshold that creates far too many false positives.
3.  You are still quite liberal with what you define as a COVID death.
4. "Mitigation fatigue" is all too real, and viruses gonna virus regardless.
5.  And last but not least, your lockdowns the first time merely postponed the inevitable.  Really.  Whether you shaved off a little bit from the first wave (like the UK) or nearly suppressed the first wave entirely (like Czechia), guess what?  You are getting right now exactly what you had postponed earlier, except now during flu season.  A real genius move, guys. 

And before you say "But Sweden is getting a second wave too!", take a look at the hard data on Worldometer or Our World In Data.  Cases are apparently way up in recent weeks, yes, but hospitalizations are only modestly up, and deaths are still largely crawling along the baseline, having had no excess deaths since July and on track to have a below-normal flu season.  Whatever their second wave, it does not appear to be particularly deadly, and they are currently in a much better position than nearly all the rest of Europe as they head into winter.

UPDATE:  And yes, COVID-19 apparently does have a strong seasonality to it in both the USA and Europe, which is of course a double-edged sword.  As for Sweden, deaths are apparently up, but still no excess deaths since all-cause mortality remains largely in the normal range per EUROMOMO.  After all, "excess" is relative.  And also, where did the flu go?  It seems that in practically every country, including Sweden, it seems to have mysteriously vanished for some reason.  Things that (should) make you go, hmmmm.

As for Finland and Norway, who still have some of the lowest COVID death rates in the Western world, keep in mind that both countries were actually LESS stringent than Sweden for the majority of the pandemic (i.e. from May until early November).

The UK's Lockdown 2.0 and the subsequent perpetual lockdown-in-all-but-name appear to have not done a lick of good at all in terms of the number or timing of COVID cases, hospitalizations, or deaths.  It appears to be at best irrelevant to the virus, if not perverse.

Banning all or practically all mixing between households, especially at this very late stage of the pandemic, is utterly risible if it weren't so tragic.  News flash, for most of the pandemic there has been, and still is today, far more transmission within households than between them, and not primarily driven by children or asymptomatic spread either.  Once the proverbial genie is out of the bottle, such government overreach is simply a cruel joke.

And meanwhile, several US states are in fact backsliding towards lockdown once again, with practically all states except Florida and South Dakota tightening restrictions at least somewhat since September.  Riddle me this:  if it worked so well the first time, why are we doing it again?  If it did NOT work the first time, why are we doing it again?

In fact, going into the holiday season, Florida is actually doing better than the national average now in spite of barely any restrictions since September 25, and both North and South Dakota have peaked and declined organically since mid-November despite mild/late (ND) or no (SD) restrictions, around the same time as the stricter Midwestern states.  California, on the other hand, is not doing so hot at all.

Even Georgia, notably first out the gate to lift restrictions and reopen in general and also first out the gate to reopen schools statewide, was not the disaster that was predicted, and seven months later they are....average compared to the rest of the country.  And sadly while both Dakotas are now cumulatively among the top ten worst states in terms of deaths per capita, the timing of their admittedly severe but very late outbreaks and decline of same does not show any relevance to policy measures.

JANUARY 2021 UPDATE:  Looks like Sweden did unfortunately have low to moderate excess weekly deaths for several weeks in a row in late November, December, and early January per EUROMOMO.  But they still had far less than they did during their first wave and significantly less than most European countries did during their second wave, especially the UK (again), Spain (again), Belgium (again), Italy (again), France, Portugal, and much less than Czechia and Slovenia as well.  And it began much later as well.  2020 seems to have been Sweden's worst year for all-cause deaths since 2012, and fairly comparable to 2015, while some other countries in contrast had their worst year in decades.  And it looks like Sweden's second wave is almost over now, with cases now plummeting despite it being the middle of winter.  Meanwhile, Florida and California are both shaping up to be about average among US states on a cumulative basis despite taking polar opposite approaches to their epidemics, kinda like how Sweden and France are both around the European average as well.  As the old saying goes, that's why you never call the winner at halftime.

Regardless of what NPIs were done, it appears that the winter wave is now in rapid retreat worldwide in nearly every country, well before the vaccines would have had much if any effect.  Reducing the cycle threshold for PCR testing and/or making testing more targeted per revised WHO guidance has likely played a role in many countries and US states, but enough naturally-acquired herd immunity to bend the curve down has also most likely been achieved as well.

Note that other endemic coronaviruses (i.e. common cold viruses) tend to peak seasonally in January or so and then sharply decline afterwards.  Thus, the decline of this virus will most likely continue through the spring and summer as well, give or take a possible March secondary peak in some places perhaps.

(And again, where did the flu go?  Hmmmm....)

So what do you call it when you do the same thing over and over and expect different results?

Ridin' With Biden Is The ONLY Way To Dump Trump

With just a week to go until Election Day (November 3rd), we at the TSAP urge you all NOT to throw your vote away or choose not to vote!  Don't make the same mistake as last time, folks.  This means YOU, Bernie or Busters!  Yes, we know that Bernie was a better choice than Biden, just like he was a better choice than Hillary.  But we all saw what happened last time when you made the perfect the enemy of the good--we ultimately ended up with neither.

In most states, you have three options: Election Day voting in person, early voting in person, or mail-in voting.  There is really no excuse not to vote this year.

Republicans will try to cheat, of course, and suppress likely Democratic voters, but that only works when an election is close.  If all eligible voters actually voted for once, it would be an overwhelming blue wave, and the Republicans would not stand a chance even with all of the cheating in the world.  Seriously.

So go do your civic duty and VOTE!!!  Do it like your life depends on it, because in one way or another, sooner or later, it will.

Time Is Running Out To Avert A Lost Decade Of Depression

With the effect of the federal CARES Act stimulus bill currently wearing off and people running out of money even as there are still not enough jobs for those who need them, the American economy and the American people (especially the poor and most vulnerable) will be in for an even greater world of hurt for the foreseeable future if we don't act very, very fast.  And not just America, but the whole world in fact is heading for a similar fate as well.

Sit down.  We are essentially looking at the prospect of not just a recession or even a depression, but a lost decade or more.  Within a few years or so the top 1% will fully recover and then some, enjoying a second Roaring Twenties of sports, while the bottom 99% would be mired in a second Greater Depression for a very, very long time.  The ultimate K-shaped recovery.  And time is running out to prevent the worst from happening, with yesterday not being soon enough!

Thus, a very, very big stimulus is necessary right now to prevent a long-term, full-blown depression of epic proportions.  Depressions are fundamentally caused by a shortage of money.  After all, GDP is literally just a spending measure, and most of that is consumer spending and government spending.  The caveat, of course, is that not even all the money in the world could fill (and can barely even briefly paper over) the inherently massive hole left in a shuttered-by-fiat economy until after the economy is fully reopened, at least not for very long.  Thus, the TSAP recommends the following steps be taken, yesterday:

• Expand the original $600 per week to ALL Americans period, not just those receiving unemployment benefits, no strings attached.  Anyone with an SSN or ITIN gets it.  Maintain such payments until at least January 2021.
• Create a permanent UBI for all Americans, of $230 per week ($1000 per month) for adults and half that amount for children and young people under 18, for when the temporary extra $600 finally expires.  Again, no strings attached.
• Pass the HEROES Act and all of its associated stimuli, not the cheap Republican knockoff version.  After all, without essential workers, civilization would have collapsed by now, so it is literally the LEAST we can do to thank them.  But failing that, at least pass SOME stimulus bill already!
• Extend the eviction moratorium until January 1, 2021 or until enough of the funds from the above are disbursed into the pockets of the people so they can pay enough to avoid eviction, whichever occurs later.  Consider also cancelling (and directly compensating  landlords with federal funds) rent for all past due rent dating from March 1 until October 1.
• More funding to shore up small businesses, which are the very bedrock of the economy.
• Keep the US Postal Service running with whatever federal funds are necessary.
• Increase aid to the states, and funding for hospitals as well.  And while we're at it, implement Medicare For All as well.
• Pass the Essential Worker's Bill of Rights.
• Three words:  Green New Deal.
• And of course, open up fully and DON'T shut down again! Like, EVER.

As for the so-called National Debt, that is really a non-problem for a Monetarily Sovereign government like our federal government, since they can literally just print the money.  And right now we have far more to worry about from deflation than we would from inflation.  Even if inflation did occur, all the federal government would have to do is resolve the shortages in goods and services that caused it, by directly purchasing such goods and services at a premium and selling (or giving) them at a loss.  And failing that, the FERAL Reserve (which, we gotta say, has been doing the heaviest financial lifting in terms of shoring up the economy just enough to prevent a total collapse thus far) can always raise interest rates and/or the reserve ratio (both of which are at rock-bottom levels), sell bonds to shrink its massive balance sheet (Quantitative Tightening), and/or drain and sterilze excess bank reserves if and when the "inflation dragon" ever does rear its ugly head at some point.  Thus, it would really be a non-problem.

That is, of course, with that caveat again: as long as we still have an economy to produce sufficient goods and services to act as the de-facto backing of our currency.  Thus, the idea that we can somehow return to a prolonged lockdown and hope to print enough money to paper over such a massive hole in the long run is physically and metaphysically untenable, as Argentina is currently learning the hard way.  Over 200 days of lockdown (to one degree or another) and counting, borderline hyperinflation (again!), and yet still utterly unable to conquer the virus (though not for lack of trying).  If that's "success", we would really hate to see what failure looks like.

So what are we waiting for? 

The TSAP's Updated "Back To True Normal" Plan

The True Spirit of America Party (TSAP) has since April strongly opposed lockdowns, or at least those that were excessive and/or lasting beyond the initial "15 days to flatten the curve", and strongly supported a phased reopening sooner than later.   That does not make us "COVID deniers" or right-wingers or anything like that, just supporters of basic common sense and human rights.  We have always taken this pandemic seriously, and support following the actual science, but we know that panicking and throwing the wisdom of the ages out the window like most of the world did back in March (and many places are still doing) has proven to do far more harm than good.

We originally proposed four phases of reopening:   Phase 1, Phase 2, Phase 3, and Phase Out.  And essentially all of the USA should have entered Phase Out by July 4, 2020 ("Reborn on the Fourth of July") at the latest per our original plan.

As of October 2020, the TSAP current supports the entire USA (all 50 states and all territories) to be in Phase Out.  Our current definition of Phase Out is roughly equivalent to Florida's current Phase 3 (i.e. everything reopened at full capacity, and generally pre-empting stricter restrictions at the local level), but with the following modifications:

• Until January 1, 2021, a hard limit of 500 people should remain in effect for all non-business and non-school gatherings that do not have numbered seats.  Indoor or quasi-indoor gatherings shall have a limit of 50, albeit with some exceptions.
• From November 4, 2020 onward, certain events that have numbered seats may exceed this threshold, provided that adequate physical distancing and airflow/ventilation are present, along with other precautions.
• Just because 100% capacity is permissible, that does NOT mean that it is OK to exceed 100%.  Existing health and fire codes from before the pandemic should be strictly enforced.
• Stricter restrictions may be imposed for limited times (two to three weeks) on local and carefully-defined "red zones" where significant local outbreaks are known to be occurring.  All areas are "green zones" by default unless such outbreaks are proven to be occurring.
• In green zones, no mask mandates outside of healthcare settings, except perhaps very narrowly-defined ones such as public transit and polling places until January 1, 2021.  Otherwise voluntary.  Red zones can still have broad mask mandates lasting no more than a few weeks.
• After January 1, 2021, no restrictions except in any bona fide red zones that remain.

It is long past time to phase out our COVID restrictions and return to the true normal.  And of course, refurbish the rule of law--something these arbitrary restrictions make an utter mockery of.

UPDATE:  See also here for a good piece on a rational reopening guide that fully respects individual rights, written by Megan Mansell at Rational Ground.  Additionally, the TSAP also recommends mathematically ending the "casedemic" problem by swiftly lowering the PCR testing cycle threshold to at most 34 amplification cycles, if not 30, to be considered positive, and also confirming all positives with a retest. Currently, many labs do as much as 40 or even more still, causing numerous false positives.

And speaking of Florida, more than a month after Florida went to Phase 3 on September 25, one can see from a cursory look at Worldometer that since then, their trends in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have been virtually identical to those of California.  That is, one of the currently most open states in the USA has virtually identical trends to the very least open state as of November. Ditto for wide-open Georgia with no state or local mask mandate and also (with the notable exception of unusually hard-hit El Paso) wide-open Texas with a mask mandate still in effect.  It's almost like the virus really doesn't care about our policies at all, at least in the long run.

Seasonality, however, does appear to be a very real, and razor-sharp, double-edged sword.  Perhaps the idea of allowing a "safe spread summer" (instead of artificially suppressing it and inevitably pushing it into the fall and winter) wasn't so crazy after all?

And as of mid-November, California's trends have actually become worse than Florida's, even shattering their own previous case records despite increasingly tight restrictions in the former and the latter still being wide open.  Really makes you think.

The TSAP Supports The Great Barrington Declaration

More than six months after the COVID lockdowns and related restrictions began in March, it is becoming increasingly clear that that such an unprecedented "strategy" wasn't really the wisest idea, to put it mildly.  In fact, it was not even really a strategy so much as a panic move that was only supposed to last two or three weeks and was based on the (later revealed to be false) premise that it was somehow utterly necessary to keep hospitals from being overrun.  Fair enough, I guess.  But then they subtly moved the goalposts to a pipe-dream "zero COVID" strategy with no end in sight, which quite frankly makes about as much sense as a "zero flu" strategy.  If that isn't mission creep, I really don't know what is.  And such a sledgehammer approach really hasn't worked very well, and has had far too much collateral damage.  The "cure" was worse than the disease.

That's why a group of distinguished infectious disease experts (Prof. Sunetra Gupta, Prof. Martin Kulldorf, and Prof. Jay Bhattacharya) have come up with the Great Barrington Declaration, which calls for a change in strategy to what they call Focused Protection, in which young and healthy people (who are statistically at similar or less risk from COVID as they are from seasonal flu, traffic accidents, etc.) essentially go back to the true normal and build up herd immunity while carefully protecting older and more vulnerable people (who are at far greater risk) in the meantime, and still respecting human rights.

Sweden basically did such a strategy for the most part, as did some US states like South Dakota, and to a lesser extent Florida, Georgia, Texas, etc.  And despite being hit rather hard, they did not turn out worse than many of the strictest lockdown countries and states, but rather closer to the middle of the pack. Controversial and imperfect as that strategy may be, honestly in the long run it is really the only way out of this pandemic nightmare for good at this point, and we just have to accept that.  It is simply an inevitable outcome, and any safe and effective vaccine will come too late.  As for treatments, they apparently already exist, and many have existed for decades now.

(For more practically detailed versions of this general strategy, devised months ago, see here and here by Bill Sardi, as well as here by Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai.)

Objections can be very easily debunked here, by the way.  It is not a left-wing vs. right-wing thing, or even solely for libertarians, as a strong communitarian case can also be made for such a strategy as well.  Thus, it is more properly thought of as a humanitarian imperative that transcends politics.

Thus, the TSAP hereby supports the Great Barrington Declaration, with the caveats that its words not be misinterpreted and that such protections of the vulnerable be largely voluntary, nuanced, and not too heavy-handed.  It's not that COVID-19 shouldn't be taken seriously (it should be!), but we need to keep things in proportion, as a disproportionate response does far more harm than good in the long run.

As the authors of the declaration so eloquently say, "Public health is not simply the absence of disease.  Together we can restore it in full.  Do it now!"  And we at the TSAP couldn't agree more.

So what are we waiting for?  Let's stop making the perfect the enemy of the good, and get real already.

UPDATE: Dr. Mikko Panunio of Finland adds that Vitamin D may very well be the silver bullet we've all been looking for, reducing not only death rates from COVID but also likely slowing the transmission of the virus as well according to recent studies, effectively creating a sort of quasi-herd immunity in the meantime.  Thus, recommending Vitamin D supplements to the general population would be an excellent and highly practical addition to the Great Barrington Declaration strategy for returning to the true normal sooner than later.  This advice echoes Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai's and Bill Sardi's advice (which also notably include Vitamin A, Vitamin C, zinc, quercetin, selenium, etc. as well as Vitamin D) given months ago.  Too bad it took over six months for such an idea to even begin to enter into the mainstream, as far too many lives have been cut short and/or ruined from both COVID as well as the wrongheaded countermeasures that did more harm than good.

And regardless, it bears repeating:  the critics' apocalyptic estimates of mass death that would allegedly result from the Great Barrington Declaration strategy relative to the status quo can be very easily debunked by noting that 1) the status quo at best delays the inevitable and still presents us with all of the exact same dilemmas the critics rail against, but with added collateral damage on top of it, and 2) yet another study confirms that the actual infection fatality rate of 0.1-0.3% is globally far lower than the doomsayers claim it is, more like a really bad flu season, albeit with very wide variation and nuance.  Even the WHO inadvertently admitted as much.  And as of October 8, the WHO did a startling about-face and now strongly discourages the use of lockdowns due to their truly massive collateral damage.

Most ironically of all, the Great Barrington Declaration strategy is not at all unorthodox, but rather simply a reversion to the scientific community's time-tested pandemic playbook which prevailed for nearly a century up until the powers that be panicked and summarily threw it out the window in March 2020.  And in that playbook, large-scale quarantines and closures were dismissed as ineffective and counterproductive for these types of pandemics.  It is only because the Overton window shifted so much and so quickly that yesterday's heresies became today's orthodoxies practically overnight.  And now is our chance to shift it back to its rightful place, and yesterday is not soon enough.

Please note that the authors of the GBD have added an informative FAQ for clarification and more detail.  It should go without saying of course, but neither the TSAP nor the GBD authors advocate or condone anyone deliberately getting infected or infecting others.  Fortunately, the idea that this is a widespread practice (via "COVID parties" or otherwise) is apparently just another urban legend.  Which is good, because we want the effective herd immunity threshold to kick in at as low a level as possible, with as little overshoot as possible, thus minimizing total casualties of all varieties.  So keep calm and carry on, but still keep washing your hands, don't touch your face, stay home when you're sick, stay away from anyone who is sick or thought to be infected, and all that jazz regardless.  That is, use common sense.

See also "A Rational Path Forward" by the folks at Rational Ground as well.

As for how long immunity lasts, see here.

2021 UPDATE:  See the rebuttal here to the specious claims against the GBD.

Six Months Is More Than Enough

Here's a good (anti-)joke for you: What do Julius Caesar and America as we knew it have in common?  Both died on the Ides of March (aka March 15).

What is the cruelest April Fools joke in all of recorded history? "Fifteen days to flatten the curve", which began on March 16, 2020 (and by it's very own definition, should have ended April 1, 2020.)  

And six months later, in most of the country we are still not anywhere close to being back to normal, despite having "flattened the curve" months ago.  Not the New Abnormal, but rather the true normal.  America is almost a completely different country now than we were just a little over six months ago.

Keep in mind that the original strategy of "flatten the curve" was a very modest and short-term one:  to slow the spread of the virus just enough so that the same number of patients will arrive at the hospital but staggered out over a longer period of time rather than all at once, so hospitals would not be overwhelmed.  DONE.  Then, by early April, in a swift moving of the proverbial goalposts and mission creep, the strategy morphed into a suppression and elimination ("zero COVID") strategy.  Which is unrealistic once the proverbial horse is out of the barn, of course. Ditto with trying to suppress it until the vaccine, which may take years or never come at all, and will most likely not be the silver bullet that people hope it is.

All at a truly massive social and economic cost, the likes of which have not been seen since the 18...nevers.  For a disease which, for the most part, is in the ballpark of a strong seasonal flu in terms of deadliness and overall severity.  We may very well see that lockdowns and related measures will have actually caused more deaths than COVID itself ever could, making the "cure" far worse than the disease.

In any case, there were really only two choices:  transmission now, or transmission later.  Or more likely, a bit of both.  And many countries got the worst of all worlds by choosing lockdown. When it comes to viruses, you can run, but you can't hide.  At least not for very long, as nature always finds a way, even if such ways may not always be fully understood.  The ox may be slow, but the Earth is very patient indeed.

Thus, as the ever-insightful Dr. John Lee notes, the only viable strategy at this point is learning to live with the virus, kinda like we do with the flu and stuff like that.  That way the pandemic will simply end the same way others before it have ended, with herd immunity and attenuation (weakening) of the virus itself, after circulating so much. Meanwhile, as we noted in a previous post, we have also learned how best to treat the disease and prevent the very worst outcomes for the most part.  And the virus is currently fizzling out on it's own all over the world as we speak, including the USA, as we are already in the endgame now.  ("Casedemics" from increased testing, false positives, and lagged legacy deaths notwithstanding.)

Apparently a lot of people don't like the term "herd immunity" because it contains the word "herd".  No problem, we can simply call it "population immunity", "community immunity", "collective resistance", "community resistance", "heterogeneous group resistance", "saturation", or perhaps our favorite, "The Final Countdown", named after that famous Swedish song from the 1980s.  Either way, it is not a "strategy" so much as an inevitable fact, kinda like gravity.  And delaying it for too long ultimately hurts the vulnerable in the long run, by increasing their chances of exposure, to say nothing of the very harmful effects of extended isolation and loneliness. 

And such wrongheaded measures to delay it also end up disproportionately hurting the poor and working classes, a fortiori for people of color, who are bearing a disproportionate share of not only the massive social and economic costs of lockdowns, but also the inevitable burden of building collective immunity as well, while the elites easily "shelter in place" and work from home in their ivory towers.

Thus, it's long past time to lift or phase out the many authoritarian restrictions (which were largely ineffective) put in place that would've been unthinkable as recently as February 2020.  That is not to say that people should not continue taking precautions to one degree or another, but the time for such top-down coercion has come and gone long ago.

Let America Be America Again!

P.S.  This is NOT a left-wing vs. right-wing thing, so let's not fall into that trap.  In fact, our position is really the only genuinely progressive position there is overall, especially when combined with other progressive priorities like UBI and Medicare For All.

What If The Cure For COVID-19 Already Existed For Decades? (Part Deux)

DISCLAIMER:  The following article references third-party sources and is intended for general information only, and is NOT intended to provide medical advice or otherwise diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease, including (but not limited to) COVID-19.  Consult a qualified physician before beginning any sort of treatment or prophylactic regimen and/or if you know or suspect that you currently have COVID-19.  Anyone who takes or does anything mentioned (or alluded to) in this or any other TSAP article does so entirely at their own risk and liability.  The TSAP thus makes absolutely no warranties, express or implied, and is not liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages resulting from any act or omission on the part of the reader(s) or others.  Caveat lector.

This is the updated, refined, and abbreviated Part 2.  For the original Part 1, please see here.

What if the cure for COVID-19 already existed, not just recently, but for decades?  What if the death toll past, present, and future could be or have been reduced to a mere tiny fraction of what it is and is predicted to be without it?  What if it was such a game-changer that it would make vaccines and expensive new drugs obsolete, to say nothing of returning very quickly, seamlessly, and fearlessly to the "old normal" that we all miss so much now (that is, if we would have ever even departed from it at all)?  And what if it consisted entirely of relatively safe and cheap generics and nutritional supplements all along?

Sounds too good to be true, right?  Well, apparently it is true after all, despite all the best efforts of hyper-partisan lockdown enthusiasts, Big Pharma, and their government enablers to suppress and sabotage it.  More and more doctors and scientists all over the world are learning about it every day, in fact.

First, let's define the term "cure" for the purposes of this article.  We do not mean a "silver bullet" type of treatment in the same way that antibiotics singlehandedly cure bacterial infections, since this type of virus, like the common cold and flu, is really defeated by our bodies' own immune systems.  Usually that does the job just fine, but clearly not always.  Sometimes it needs a little help from outside.  Thus, we define a "cure" as any treatment protocol that reduces the death rate and/or hospitalization/ICU rate dramatically (by at least 50%) compared to no such treatment, and can thus be considered a game-changer.  Anything that can save that many lives and/or free up that many hospital resources would indeed be a game-changer by definition.

There is in fact already such a certain alternative treatment protocol that has gotten such a bad rap in the mainstream due to grossly improper use (and its infamous guilt by association with certain politicians who promoted it) that some countries and states have even banned it (or at least a key component of it) despite its rather promising effectiveness in saving lives when used early, properly, and under the advice of a qualified physician.  For example, Switzerland briefly banned it and subsequently lifted the ban, effectively creating a natural experiment, and the results speak for themselves in terms of death rates (which rose fourfold during the ban and then dropped back to what they were before the ban when it was lifted).  And the Brazilian state of Para saw death rates plummet after introducing it, while India's rather low per capita death rate (despite their epidemic being out of control for months) can also perhaps be explained by such treatment.

In fact, it seems to be one of the strongest factors in predicting a country's (or region's) per capita death rate, especially after adjusting for the average age of the population.  Meanwhile, the presence or relative stringency of lockdowns generally shows no clear correlation and in fact, within Europe and within the USA, a rather perverse correlation with death rates.

So what is this treatment protocol?  There are several variants, but the one that seems to be the best of all is the one developed and further refined by a group of Swiss doctors, and is as follows in their words:

Treatment protocol

Prophylaxis

1. Zinc (50mg to 100mg per day)
2. Quercetin (500mg to 1000mg per day)
3. Bromhexine (25mg to 50mg per day)
4. Vitamins C (1000mg) and D (2000 u/d)

Early treatment

1. Zinc (75mg to 150mg per day)
2. Quercetin (500mg to 1500mg per day)
3. Bromhexine (50mg to 75mg per day)
4. Vitamins C (1000mg) and D (4000 u/d)

Ancillary (prescription only)

1. Hydr*xychlor*qu*ne (400mg per day)
2. High-dose vitamin D (1x 100,000 IU)
3. Azithromycin (up to 500mg per day)
4. Heparin (usual dosage)

Note: Contraindications for HCQ (e.g. favism or heart disease) must be observed. 

Addendum: Other prescription drugs with first reported successes in the early medical treatment of Covid-19 are ivermectin (read more) and favipiravir (read more).

Their original protocol prior to August 5, 2020 did not include Bromhexine, but that was added due to recently mounting evidence that it is at least as much of a game-changer as HCQ if not more so.  While it is typically used as a mucolytic expectorant for coughs and chest congestion, apparently it can also incidentally prevent the virus from getting into our cells in the first place, thus rendering the virus impotent in the face of treatment.  While Bromhexine is available over the counter (OTC) in most countries worldwide including the UK, EU, Australia, Mexico, and much of Asia, it is unfortunately still not available yet in the USA as the FDA has yet to approve it, so Americans would likely have to stick to the original five-component version for the time being unless they are currently abroad.  That is probably why most Americans have probably never even heard of it.

So how does the whole thing work?  This synergistic cocktail does the following, in their own words, with linked citations:

Mechanisms of action 

Zinc inhibits RNA polymerase activity of coronaviruses and thus blocks virus replication. Hydr*xychl*roqu*ne and quercetin support the cellular absorption of zinc and have additional anti-viral properties. Bromhexine inhibits the expression of the cellular TMPRSS2 protease and thus the entry of the virus into the cell. Azithromycin prevents bacterial superinfections. Heparin prevents infection-related thromboses and embolisms in patients at risk. (See scientific references below). 

See also: Illustration of the mechanisms of action of HCQ, quercetin and bromhexine

The Swiss doctors do note that early treatment is best, ideally before hospitalization, as is prophylactic use for high-risk and high-exposure persons.  The sooner, the better.  If taken too late, such as when already in critical condition, its usefulness is quite limited.  But even if already hospitalized, better late than never.

So exactly how successful are we talking here?  Again, in their own words: 

Treatment successes

Zinc/HCQ/AZ: US physicians reported an 84% decrease in hospitalization rates, a 50% decrease in mortality rates among already hospitalized patients (if treated early), and an improvement in the condition of patients within 8 to 12 hours. Italian doctors reported a decrease in deaths of 66%.

US physicians also reported a 45% reduction in mortality of hospitalized patients by adding zinc to HCQ/AZ. Another US study reported a rapid resolution of Covid symptoms, such as shortness of breath, based on early outpatient treatment with high-dose zinc.

Bromhexine: Iranian doctors reported in a study with 78 patients a decrease in intensive care treatments of 82%, a decrease in intubations of 89%, and a decrease in deaths of 100%. Chinese doctors reported a 50% reduction in intubations. Bromhexine is a mucolytic cough medication.

Vitamin D: In a Spanish randomized controlled trial (RCT), high-dose vitamine D (100,000 IU) reduced the risk of requiring intensive care by 96%. A large Israeli study found a strong link between vitamin D deficiency and covid-19 severity.

Pretty impressive, right?  Let those numbers sink in for a moment.  Talk about a game-changer!

And if one still needs to be hospitalized, they go on to recommend that ventilators be avoided as much as possible as they tend to be counterproductive, and opt instead for the far less-invasive high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) to deliver live oxygen therapy.

The very most impressive part of all is actually the recently-added Vitamin D component, high bolus doses of which appear to nearly abolish the risk of ICU admission (96% reduction) and death (100% reduction) entirely when given to hospitalized COVID patients.  And lower doses can be also used for prophylaxis and early treatment as well, of course.

(Courtesy of Swiss Policy Research.  Worth reading in full from the original source.)

A word of caution about HCQ:  While it seems to work very well when used early, properly, and under the advice of a qualified physician, that does NOT mean that anyone should just take such heavy artillery willy-nilly.  Ditto for azithromycin or any other antibiotic.  These powerful drugs can have serious side effects when taken improperly, excessively, or when medically contraindicated, which is why they are still prescription-only in most (but not all) countries even after decades of being on the market.  Don't hoard them either, since plenty of non-COVID patients also depend on these medications as well.  Don't take (H)CQ with any drug that prolongs the QT interval either. And unless you really, really want to win a Darwin Award, do NOT ingest any fish tank cleaner just because it happens to be related and has a similar name!  When in doubt, stick with Quercetin and zinc, with of course plenty of vitamin C and D as well to further boost the immune system and synergize with the former.

(Quercetin, a naturally occurring plant bioflavonoid found in various foods, is readily available as a nutritional supplement in numerous stores nationwide and worldwide.  The TSAP likes to affectionately call it "Vitamin Q". And no one would dare to ban that, of course, since doing so would just give the game away at this point.  They'd rather simply ignore it and pretend it doesn't exist.)

And of course, for any critical cases, we know now (through clinical trial and error) that there are always corticosteroids to fall back on as well, particularly dexamethasone, and possibly inhaled ones like budesonide as well.  Their effectiveness in saving lives is apparently good but limited.  Given that they inherently suppress the immune system, they should NOT be given early, only for cases that are bad enough that respiratory support is needed.  That is, steroids are used to quell the dreaded "cytokine storm" of severe inflammation that occurs when the body basically nukes itself in a desperate (and counterproductive) attempt to rid it of the virus.  The fact that it took months to figure that out really speaks volumes.  And it is practically the only thing that both pro-HCQ and anti-HCQ studies seem to agree upon.

(The jury is still out on whether early budesonide use specifically has any additional benefits.)

But wait, there's more.  As of September 9, 2020, there is a new hypothesis, the bradykinin hypothesis, which posits that the main way that COVID-19 kills is via a bradykinin storm rather than a purely cytokine storm, though the two storms are likely intertwined.  If that's the case, then there are various additional existing drugs that target the renin-angiotensin system (RAS), and it also further strengthens the case for Vitamin D (which can apparently quell both kinds of storms) as a treatment and prophylaxis, for which evidence continues to mount as we speak.

There is also another treatment and prophylaxis protocol worth considering by Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai involving Vitamin A and iodine/iodide as well as Vitamins C and D to build up one's immune system as well.  And this was deduced way back in March!  Please do be careful with Vitamin A though, since unlike with C and D, it is fairly easy to overdose on.  Ditto for Lugol's iodine solution as well.

Bill Sardi also has his own take as well, also recommending Vitamins A, D, and zinc, selenium, as well as resveratrol and inositol.  He also notes that Glycyrrhizin, found naturally in licorice, is very promising as it has been found to have antiviral properties against many viruses, including the original SARS coronavirus whose RNA is 80% similar to SARS-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

Also, please note that the TSAP is NOT a Trump-supporting party, in fact we despise him and want him to lose the 2020 election.  But as we know, sometimes a stopped clock can be right twice a day in regards to HCQ, albeit with the truth being a bit more nuanced.  And he could partially and belatedly atone for some of his misdeeds with the simple stroke of his executive pen, namely by passing an emergency use (if not permanent) authorization for the importation, manufacture, and use of Bromhexine.  If countries as strict as the UK and Australia can approve it long ago for OTC use, surely we can do the same over here.  And also, make low-dose HCQ OTC (or at least behind the counter) as well, like several countries already do, perhaps subject to rationing.

(And, of course, Trump can also use the Defense Production Act to force the production and distribution of PPE to hospitals, albeit belatedly, so nurses don't have to keep reusing PPE.  And then he can go do us all a YUUUGE favor and RESIGN.)

Nutrition in general seems to play a key role in who survives COVID and who doesn't.  And not just Vitamin C and D--there several other important nutrients worth considering as well.  For example, glutathione, and the supplement N-acetylcysteine (NAC), which is a key precursor to glutathione, also seems to have rather promising effects as well.  NAC is also a good liver detox and hangover cure as well, which is probably what it is most famous for.  Selenium, and also EGCG from green tea, look rather promising as well.  A multivitamin supplement containing both selenium and its synergistic "buddy",  Vitamin E, would likely be good to take daily.  And, of course, as noted earlier in this article, whatever you do, don't forget the zinc!

In fact, we will go out on a limb and make the following extremely audacious claim:  Had the United States government (as well as other countries) decided instead to avoid lockdowns and shutdowns entirely, let the virus run its course, and simply made all of the aforementioned drugs in this article readily available for free or cheap from the start to all those who needed them, especially for high-risk and high-exposure groups, while also recommending and providing the general population with vitamins A, C and D, Quercetin, zinc, et al., we would very likely have saved a LOT more lives at a tiny fraction of the cost.  And of course, no collateral damage either.  But that would have made far too much sense, of course.

Thus, the cure has apparently been right under our noses all along.  It is long past time to stop playing politics and put it to good use, ending this nightmare once and for all.  So what are we waiting for?

Stay healthy everyone,

The True Spirit of America Party

NOVEMBER UPDATE:  Some studies also suggest that the heartburn medication famotidine (e.g. Pepcid AC) is effective in reducing the risk of death and intubation in hospitalized COVID patients as well.  Another thing we forgot to mention is inositol (Vitamin B8), which may also be of benefit both physically and mentally.  Another good article can be found here as well.  Additionally, thiamine or benfotiamine (Vitamin B1) also appears to be important as well, ditto for Niacin (Vitamin B3).

It is also worth noting that Trump himself, who recently contracted and subsequently recovered from COVID-19, had received a cocktail of drugs and supplements early on that include several of those mentioned above.  In addition to Regeneron's now-famous experimental lab-created antibody treatment and Gilead's experimental antiviral drug remdesivir, he was also given Vitamin D, zinc, famotidine, melatonin, and a daily aspirin (a notable blood thinner), and subsequently given the steroid dexamethasone and oxygen therapy when his oxygen levels dropped too low.  Surprisingly, he was not given HCQ or azithromycin this time around, despite the fact that he had famously taken it prophylactically a few months ago.  And while he clearly got the royal treatment unlike the typical COVID patient, his advanced age (74) and obesity would have made him a dead man walking, thus there was clearly something about the treatment he received and the cocktail he took that had saved his life.  While Regeneron's experimental (and expensive) antibody treatment is the rockstar here, the other things mentioned most likely played a significant role as well, while remdesivir remains questionable at best.

(Regeneron's monoclonal antibody cocktail, by the way, is really just a fancy and expensive version of antibodies from convalescent plasma, by the way.  They simply make it in the lab as opposed to gleaning natural antibodies from recovered COVID patients.)

Please do note that if you take aspirin, be sure to take plenty of Vitamin C as well, since aspirin can deplete Vitamin C levels, which may very well be the actual root cause of its adverse side effects.  And, of course, don't overdo it on the aspirin either.  Nevertheless, the Swiss doctors also recently added aspirin (as an alternative to heparin) to their protocol as well.  

DECEMBER UPDATE:  Of note, the Swiss doctors, the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance, and some others' protocols now include the increasingly promising, repurposed drug Ivermectin as well, to one degree or another.  This one alone is apparently quite the game-changer, for early treatment, late treatment, and prophylaxis, yet is underrated. Ask your doctor if that is right for you.

Oh, and by the way, Gilead's remdesivir, despite costing a whopping $5000/dose and requiring a hospital stay since it is administered by IV infusion, seems to be a failure.  At best, it's like another Tamiflu but with more side effects, basically.  Not surprising, since it is literally nothing more than a failed (and conveniently repurposed) Ebola drug that interestingly also happens to be a bunk version (loose analog) of a nicotinic acid (niacin) mononucleotide precursor according to Dr. Dmitry Kats.  Meanwhile, Dr. Kats himself apparently discovered months ago that the real thing, niacin (nicotinic acid, aka Vitamin B3) itself, at about 20 cents per 1000 mg dose, actually does work as prophylaxis and even as a practically overnight cure for COVID.  It has to be the immediate-release, "flush" kind in order for it to work, since the classic "niacin flush" reaction is a feature, not a bug.  And niacin has numerous other health benefits as well while being practically harmless when used as directed.  The censors, however, are not at all pleased with his findings.  Gee, I wonder why?

As for long-haulers (those suffering from longer-term COVID after-effects), many of the reported symptoms sound a lot like those of deficiencies in several of the aforementioned key nutrients, particularly Vitamin D (in general), Vitamin B1 (dysautonomia and recurring fevers), and zinc (loss of smell and taste).  Correcting these deficiencies would likely work very well to promote healing.  And according to Dr. Dmitry Kats, there is also at least anecdotal evidence as well that niacin (Vitamin B3) can be beneficial as well in healing from remnant COVID damage, which is not really surprising given how well it works to treat acute COVID (as he discovered in his RCT study).

Of note, Ivermectin also seems to work for long-haulers as well, to the tune of 94%.

FINAL THOUGHT:  As for HCQ, one reason why some studies have not found benefits (aside from treating too late or with excessive doses, if not deliberate sabotage) is that it was clearly NOT given with zinc, in which case it seems to be hit-or-miss.  In contrast, when it IS given with zinc, as per the Zelenko Protocol, and especially early enough, practically all studies find significant benefit.  HCQ is, among other things, a good zinc ionophore that carries zinc ions into the cells where they can work more efficiently in inhibiting viral replication.  That is, zinc is what actually does the real heavy lifting here.  And guess what?  As noted earlier in this article, Quercetin can do the same thing, and safer too, with additional benefits as well.  So what are we waiting for?