It really does NOT look good for the Donald these days. A formal impeachment inquiry has now been officially launched against him, and it looks like he will be impeached any day now. This time, it is because Trump allegedly tried to pressure a foreign government, the Ukraine, to give him political dirt on Joe Biden's son. That, and so many other things in Trump's laundry list of scandals are now coming back to haunt him. And that is a VERY long list indeed!
With dirty tricks like that, he makes even Tricky Dick Nixon look like an angel by comparison!
Of course, the House can only charge him with such "high crimes and misdemeanors", and it is up to the Senate to actually try him and vote on whether or not he should be removed, which requires a two-thirds majority to do so. But even if they don't have the votes to remove him before the 2020 election, it is just a little over a year away, and him having this sort of a dark and ominous cloud hanging over him would certainly NOT help him win re-election at all.
And now with his stupid trade war really starting to bite hard and wreak havoc with both the national and global economy, and his latest foray into the asinine War on Vaping, he is pissing off more and more of his erstwhile supporters, making it even more likely that he will be creamed in 2020 either way.
The jig is up, Donald. Now go do us all a favor and RESIGN, yesterday. Don't let the door hit you on the way out. Or as you like to say, "YOU'RE FIRED!"
UPDATE: It looks like Trump threw Pence under the bus as well. So we may very well get a two-for-one impeachment special as a result. Plus, if Trump eventually does a Nixon and pre-emptively resigns in hopes of Pence pardoning him, he will surely be out of luck now. Hey, that's karma!
Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Thursday, August 8, 2019
How To Prevent--And Cure--The Next (Or Any) Recession Or Depression (Updated)
With a recession likely coming later this year or next year at the latest, it is important to realize the causes so such recessions can be cured or even prevented in the first place. Enter Rodger Malcolm Mitchell, the guru of Monetary Sovereignty, penned this important and timely article.
He notes that every single recession and virtually every depression in history has been preceded by a cut in federal deficit spending, or worse, a federal surplus. That is not coincidence, since cutting the federal deficit slows the growth of the money supply, and surpluses actually shrink the money supply, all else being equal. (Federal deficit spending = spending new dollars into existence.) A growing economy requires a growing supply of money, and when the money supply fails to keep up with the demand for money for too long, the economy reacts by shrinking. Thus, barring a truly massive increase in private debt (i.e. more money lent into existence by banks), deficit cuts ultimately result in recessions and surpluses result in depressions or at least really long and deep recessions. And recessions and depressions can only be cured by increasing the money supply dramatically, typically by increasing federal deficit spending. That's it.
And this makes perfect sense, since GDP is literally nothing more than a money measure. To wit, GDP = Federal Spending + Nonfederal Spending + Net Exports. Kinda hard to grow that without sufficiently growing the money supply as well.
Everything else is basically a sideshow, but that said, sometimes sideshows can be significant too. Take the current Trump Trade War, for example. This lose-lose, negative-sum game would have been recessionary by now had it not been for the massive growth in the federal deficit occurring at the same time, and eventually it may still cause the next recession in spite of the deficit. But if the Republicans decide to cut federal spending because of manufactured deficit hysteria, that will cause a far worse recession or depression, on top of the consequences of the trade war. And Wall Street recklessness can indeed cause financial crises, which of course can have knock-on effects on Main Street as well, as we have seen numerous times already. Though even that is most likely due to the fact that stock market crashes--or any other asset price crash--will shrink the money supply, all else being equal. And that is especially true when there is a "credit crunch" where banks suddenly refuse to lend as much as before, as we have seen in the wake of both the 1929 and 2008 stock market crashes (but not 1987).
What about oil and gasoline prices? True, 10 out of the past 11 recessions have been preceded by sharp increases in fuel prices. And that makes sense in a country in which oil is the lifeblood of the economy. But even this is more nuanced than one may think. Neither increases in interest rates alone nor increases in fuel prices alone seem to be enough to cause a recession by themselves unless such increases are truly extreme, which is very rare. But the simultaneous combination of significantly large increases in both (that is, a sharp hike in the Fed Funds Rate by more than 2.00-2.50% AND at least a doubling of crude oil prices within a year or two) appears to be sufficient to cause a recession. Of course, given how rare it is for recessions to not be preceded by cuts in deficit spending, it is not clear if sufficient deficit spending can be enough to prevent an oil-induced recession while interest rates are also hiked to prevent or cure inflation. But at the very least, increasing federal deficits will cure such recessions once the inflation dragon is defeated.
The Fed recently cut the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25 percentage points (25 basis points), while noting that there would not likely be any more cuts this year. And the stock market lurched downward upon that announcement, and lurched down again the following day thanks to Trump's further escalation of the trade war, and yet again following China's predictable retaliation. Cutting interest rates is basically like pushing on a string, and in any case it may be too late to fully prevent the next recession that is largely induced by Trump's trade war.
Overall, we know what causes virtually all recessions and depressions. That means we also know how to prevent and cure them as well. That is, when recession hits, or ideally before it hits, we should increase federal deficit spending, or at least refrain from cutting it. It's really not rocket science.
He notes that every single recession and virtually every depression in history has been preceded by a cut in federal deficit spending, or worse, a federal surplus. That is not coincidence, since cutting the federal deficit slows the growth of the money supply, and surpluses actually shrink the money supply, all else being equal. (Federal deficit spending = spending new dollars into existence.) A growing economy requires a growing supply of money, and when the money supply fails to keep up with the demand for money for too long, the economy reacts by shrinking. Thus, barring a truly massive increase in private debt (i.e. more money lent into existence by banks), deficit cuts ultimately result in recessions and surpluses result in depressions or at least really long and deep recessions. And recessions and depressions can only be cured by increasing the money supply dramatically, typically by increasing federal deficit spending. That's it.
And this makes perfect sense, since GDP is literally nothing more than a money measure. To wit, GDP = Federal Spending + Nonfederal Spending + Net Exports. Kinda hard to grow that without sufficiently growing the money supply as well.
Everything else is basically a sideshow, but that said, sometimes sideshows can be significant too. Take the current Trump Trade War, for example. This lose-lose, negative-sum game would have been recessionary by now had it not been for the massive growth in the federal deficit occurring at the same time, and eventually it may still cause the next recession in spite of the deficit. But if the Republicans decide to cut federal spending because of manufactured deficit hysteria, that will cause a far worse recession or depression, on top of the consequences of the trade war. And Wall Street recklessness can indeed cause financial crises, which of course can have knock-on effects on Main Street as well, as we have seen numerous times already. Though even that is most likely due to the fact that stock market crashes--or any other asset price crash--will shrink the money supply, all else being equal. And that is especially true when there is a "credit crunch" where banks suddenly refuse to lend as much as before, as we have seen in the wake of both the 1929 and 2008 stock market crashes (but not 1987).
What about oil and gasoline prices? True, 10 out of the past 11 recessions have been preceded by sharp increases in fuel prices. And that makes sense in a country in which oil is the lifeblood of the economy. But even this is more nuanced than one may think. Neither increases in interest rates alone nor increases in fuel prices alone seem to be enough to cause a recession by themselves unless such increases are truly extreme, which is very rare. But the simultaneous combination of significantly large increases in both (that is, a sharp hike in the Fed Funds Rate by more than 2.00-2.50% AND at least a doubling of crude oil prices within a year or two) appears to be sufficient to cause a recession. Of course, given how rare it is for recessions to not be preceded by cuts in deficit spending, it is not clear if sufficient deficit spending can be enough to prevent an oil-induced recession while interest rates are also hiked to prevent or cure inflation. But at the very least, increasing federal deficits will cure such recessions once the inflation dragon is defeated.
The Fed recently cut the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25 percentage points (25 basis points), while noting that there would not likely be any more cuts this year. And the stock market lurched downward upon that announcement, and lurched down again the following day thanks to Trump's further escalation of the trade war, and yet again following China's predictable retaliation. Cutting interest rates is basically like pushing on a string, and in any case it may be too late to fully prevent the next recession that is largely induced by Trump's trade war.
Overall, we know what causes virtually all recessions and depressions. That means we also know how to prevent and cure them as well. That is, when recession hits, or ideally before it hits, we should increase federal deficit spending, or at least refrain from cutting it. It's really not rocket science.
Sunday, August 4, 2019
Enough Is Enough Already! (Yet Again)
Another day, another horrible mass shooting. This time, it was in fact TWO mass shootings within 24 hours: one in El Paso, Texas, followed by another in Dayton, Ohio, and so far at least the first one (if not the second as well) appeared to be fueled by racism, xenophobia, and white nationalism (much like the one at the garlic festival in Gilroy, California just days prior). These two shootings are among the deadliest in this country's history, but in context with the numerous other recent mass shootings it otherwise seems disturbingly banal. Seems that mass shootings in general have become an almost daily occurrence in recent years, and school shootings in particular an almost weekly occurrence--in the USA at least. So far there have been 251 mass shootings in 2019 alone. But the rest of the industrialized world doesn't really seem to have this kind of problem, even in countries where racism, xenophobia, anti-Semitism and hate groups in general are rife. Why is that? Well, there's always....
GUNS.
America is the land of 300 million guns, and combined with a culture that is crazier and more violent than most other "developed" countries, and much more extreme inequality, it is a very lethal combination indeed. And some states, most notably Florida and Texas, but also Pennsylvania as well, have particularly lax gun laws compared to other states. Of course, the biggest elephant in the room is the fact that at least 98% of mass shooters are MEN. Thanks to the patriarchy and the sort of "toxic masculinity" that it creates, combined with the above factors, too many men end up resorting to violence. Like the Iron Maiden song says, "a briefcase, a lunch, and a man on the edge". With a gun. I mean, what could possibly go wrong, right?
There should be no doubt at this point that something needs to be done. However, we do not believe that banning all guns for everyone, or adopting British or European-style gun laws, is the solution, as the genie is already out of the bottle, and there is also that whole Constitution thingy as well. Thus, the TSAP recommends that the following measures be taken:
And like other cases of domestic terrorism, these were most likely due to a combination of toxic masculinity, easy access to deadly weapons (especially the obligatory semi-automatic AR-15, AK-47, or their knockoffs), and a virulent racism and xenophobia fueled by the so-called "alt-right" (read: white supremacists, KKK, and neo-Nazis) as well as the Trump administration that nods, winks, and looks the other way (when they aren't stoking the fire themselves like Trump himself apparently had done recently). Regardless of the motive, the first two factors are absolutely essential for virtually all mass shootings. To be clear, these atrocities are, even more disturbingly, NOT isolated incidents or flukes, but the tip of a very large iceberg of hate and violence that appears to be getting worse in recent years.
I don't know about you, but my favorite part of the Second Amendment is where it says "well-regulated". Too bad so many Republican Congresscritters who are bought and paid for by the NRA can't seem to read the first half of the freaking sentence. Oh, and nevermind that when it was written, guns at that time fired at most one round per minute, not 600+ per minute like so many of today's killing machines. Not like the gun lobby and their lackeys really do nuance.
GUNS.
America is the land of 300 million guns, and combined with a culture that is crazier and more violent than most other "developed" countries, and much more extreme inequality, it is a very lethal combination indeed. And some states, most notably Florida and Texas, but also Pennsylvania as well, have particularly lax gun laws compared to other states. Of course, the biggest elephant in the room is the fact that at least 98% of mass shooters are MEN. Thanks to the patriarchy and the sort of "toxic masculinity" that it creates, combined with the above factors, too many men end up resorting to violence. Like the Iron Maiden song says, "a briefcase, a lunch, and a man on the edge". With a gun. I mean, what could possibly go wrong, right?
There should be no doubt at this point that something needs to be done. However, we do not believe that banning all guns for everyone, or adopting British or European-style gun laws, is the solution, as the genie is already out of the bottle, and there is also that whole Constitution thingy as well. Thus, the TSAP recommends that the following measures be taken:
- Bring back a new and improved 1994 assault-weapons ban yesterday, this time with more teeth. This time, include all rapid-fire devices and all magazines with more than ten rounds in the ban as well as the previously-banned types of semi-automatic rifles and their knockoffs.
- Remove the 20-year ban on gun violence research, yesterday.
- End the gun-show loophole and implement universal background checks, yesterday.
- Put a significant excise tax on all bullets/ammo, like Chris Rock recommended. (Seriously)
- Treat ammo sales the same as gun sales. Or better yet, treat bullets like Sudafed: must show ID, limit on the number that one can buy, the number bought would be recorded, and if you do buy too many, you will be investigated.
- Pass a "one gun a month" law at the federal level. And consider perhaps putting a limit on the number of guns that an individual can own at a given time, except for antiques/relics/curios.
- Require reporting of lost or stolen guns.
- Regulate firearms like other consumer products in terms of health and safety standards--currently such standards are nonexistent.
- Improve enforcement of existing gun laws, which tend not to be enforced very well these days, and improve state reporting of prohibited persons to NICS. Also, prohibit anyone on the terrorism watch list from buying any guns, period--and consider hate groups to be domestic terrorists as well.
- Consider a massive gun buyback program, one that pays significantly more than what the guns are worth on the street. Voluntary for any still-legal weapons, mandatory for any newly-banned ones.
- And last but not least, improve our woefully-inadequate mental healthcare system.
And like other cases of domestic terrorism, these were most likely due to a combination of toxic masculinity, easy access to deadly weapons (especially the obligatory semi-automatic AR-15, AK-47, or their knockoffs), and a virulent racism and xenophobia fueled by the so-called "alt-right" (read: white supremacists, KKK, and neo-Nazis) as well as the Trump administration that nods, winks, and looks the other way (when they aren't stoking the fire themselves like Trump himself apparently had done recently). Regardless of the motive, the first two factors are absolutely essential for virtually all mass shootings. To be clear, these atrocities are, even more disturbingly, NOT isolated incidents or flukes, but the tip of a very large iceberg of hate and violence that appears to be getting worse in recent years.
I don't know about you, but my favorite part of the Second Amendment is where it says "well-regulated". Too bad so many Republican Congresscritters who are bought and paid for by the NRA can't seem to read the first half of the freaking sentence. Oh, and nevermind that when it was written, guns at that time fired at most one round per minute, not 600+ per minute like so many of today's killing machines. Not like the gun lobby and their lackeys really do nuance.
Sunday, July 28, 2019
It's (Still) Mueller Time!
The Russiagate scandal, along with Trump's other myriad scandals, is not going away anytime soon. And after Mueller testified to Congress, he made it clear that Trump was NOT exonerated, particularly for the high crime of obstruction of justice, though under current Justice Deparment rules a sitting president cannot be indicted. Thus, Congress needs to impeach him. And Nancy Pelosi really needs to stop dithering about it and get the ball rolling yesterday.
Tuesday, June 25, 2019
We Still Condemn Trump's Deplorable Immigration Policy
Trump's deplorable immigration policy is only getting worse it seems. While the administration has supposedly stopped separating undocumented children from their parents at the border, the children thay have been separated already have still not been reunited. And as there is currently a crisis at the border with all of the recent asylum seekers, they are increasingly being detained in deplorable conditions without adequate food, water, and sanitation. We literally have innocent children being treated worse than convicted felons in this country.
And yes, "concentration camps" is the correct term, since the dictionary definition is "the mass detention of civilans without trial". So it looks like AOC is apparently spot-on. This is how it started in 1930s Germany, after all--first they had detention camps, then slave-labor camps, and only from 1941 onward did they have extermination (death) camps.
Look, it is clear that a lot of people don't like the term "concentration camps". Maybe we should call them "torture camps" instead, given that what all too often occurs in them meets the internationally recognized definition of torture, especially when it involves children. Or perhaps we should call them "Trump Camps" to guarantee that historians forever attach their memory to his name and vile and disgusting legacy, while ironically giving him a perverse ego boost without him even seeing the irony.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is planning even more ICE raids for the purpose of deporting more and more undocumented immigrants, including those who have been living here for years or decades and have no criminal records.
Clearly, such cruelty for cruelty's sake has NOT been any sort of deterrent, as the number of illegal border crossings has gone from the lowest it has been in years in much of 2017 to the highest it has been in decades by March 2019. Let that sink in.
That kinda backfired, didn't it? Meanwhile, the 100% preventable illnesses, injuries, and deaths of both children and adults in these camps just keep piling up every day that goes by. We can no longer call our country a "shining city on a hill" anymore as long as this continues. Even the late Ronald Reagan (who coined both that phrase, as well as the MAGA slogan, by the way) must be spinning in his grave right now.
To be sure, the crisis at the border does not have any easy, ready-made solutions at this point, and certainly requires thinking outside the box. Ideally, all immigrants should come in through the proper channels legally. But the system is currently broken, and when those proper channels are blocked off by the powers that be, for political reasons, clearly something has to give as a result. And the train has basically left the station at this point.
Don't look away. This is how it starts, people. The banality of evil, and "we were just following orders" and "the law is the law". So where's the long-overdue outrage? Remember, the only thing it takes for evil to prosper, is for good people to do nothing. Seriously.
And yes, "concentration camps" is the correct term, since the dictionary definition is "the mass detention of civilans without trial". So it looks like AOC is apparently spot-on. This is how it started in 1930s Germany, after all--first they had detention camps, then slave-labor camps, and only from 1941 onward did they have extermination (death) camps.
Look, it is clear that a lot of people don't like the term "concentration camps". Maybe we should call them "torture camps" instead, given that what all too often occurs in them meets the internationally recognized definition of torture, especially when it involves children. Or perhaps we should call them "Trump Camps" to guarantee that historians forever attach their memory to his name and vile and disgusting legacy, while ironically giving him a perverse ego boost without him even seeing the irony.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is planning even more ICE raids for the purpose of deporting more and more undocumented immigrants, including those who have been living here for years or decades and have no criminal records.
Clearly, such cruelty for cruelty's sake has NOT been any sort of deterrent, as the number of illegal border crossings has gone from the lowest it has been in years in much of 2017 to the highest it has been in decades by March 2019. Let that sink in.
That kinda backfired, didn't it? Meanwhile, the 100% preventable illnesses, injuries, and deaths of both children and adults in these camps just keep piling up every day that goes by. We can no longer call our country a "shining city on a hill" anymore as long as this continues. Even the late Ronald Reagan (who coined both that phrase, as well as the MAGA slogan, by the way) must be spinning in his grave right now.
To be sure, the crisis at the border does not have any easy, ready-made solutions at this point, and certainly requires thinking outside the box. Ideally, all immigrants should come in through the proper channels legally. But the system is currently broken, and when those proper channels are blocked off by the powers that be, for political reasons, clearly something has to give as a result. And the train has basically left the station at this point.
Don't look away. This is how it starts, people. The banality of evil, and "we were just following orders" and "the law is the law". So where's the long-overdue outrage? Remember, the only thing it takes for evil to prosper, is for good people to do nothing. Seriously.
Sunday, June 16, 2019
No War With Iran!
After the recent attacks on oil tankers in the Sea of Oman and Strait of Hormuz by an unknown attacker, Trump and his warmongering cronies are now hastily blaming Iran for these attacks. But there is plenty of reason to believe they are being, shall we say, "economical with the truth".
The timing alone is suspicious, as Trump has every reason to "wag the dog" to deflect from his ever-mounting scandals including, but not limited to, Russiagate. Also, the evidence is lacking and what little there is, just doesn't really seem to add up. And we know that Trump has been hell-bent on provoking Iran ever since pulling out of the nuclear deal last year. Time will tell, of course, but this really has "false flag" written all over it.
Besides, going to war with Iran would most likely be a disaster of epic proportions, and certainly not something to take lightly. And even if Iran does somehow turn out to be the culprit, the fact remains that the ships attacked were not even American tankers (they were Norwegian and Japanese), and fully zero Americans were harmed in the process. In fact, this was apparently a "property damage only" (PDO) incident. So let's NOT fall for this would-be modern-day Gulf of Tonkin incident and get sucked into yet another decades-long quagmire again.
The best foreign policy can be summed up in four words: "first, do no harm". Seriously, this is not a game, and the stakes have never been higher now.
UPDATE: Just a few days later on June 20, Iran confirmed that they shot down an unmanned American spy drone (again, PDO) that they claim was flying in their airspace, while the Trump administration claims it was over international waters. Time will tell who is telling the truth, perhaps even both if, for example, it turns out that the drone entered Iranian airspace first but was subsequently shot down over international waters. Maritime borders can be tricky and nuanced. Regardless, this is still not a good reason to go to war with Iran.
It is exceeding unlikely that the Orange Cheeto in Chief actually wants a shooting war with Iran. He himself has said as much. He would rather just bluff to make himself look tough while distracting from his myriad scandals closing in on him in the late stage of his failed presidency. And his puppetmaster Putin apparently doesn't want him to go to war with his buddy Iran, either. But now that Iran apparently called his bluff, and Bolton and Pompeo are still itching for war, the United States is now in a very precarious situation thanks to Trump's stupid bear-poking saber-rattling routines, and a war may still happen inadvertently in spite of him canceling it at the last minute. He is clearly like a crackhead playing with matches and gasoline, and every day he seems more and more unfit for the office of dogcatcher, let alone for the office of the Presidency.
The timing alone is suspicious, as Trump has every reason to "wag the dog" to deflect from his ever-mounting scandals including, but not limited to, Russiagate. Also, the evidence is lacking and what little there is, just doesn't really seem to add up. And we know that Trump has been hell-bent on provoking Iran ever since pulling out of the nuclear deal last year. Time will tell, of course, but this really has "false flag" written all over it.
Besides, going to war with Iran would most likely be a disaster of epic proportions, and certainly not something to take lightly. And even if Iran does somehow turn out to be the culprit, the fact remains that the ships attacked were not even American tankers (they were Norwegian and Japanese), and fully zero Americans were harmed in the process. In fact, this was apparently a "property damage only" (PDO) incident. So let's NOT fall for this would-be modern-day Gulf of Tonkin incident and get sucked into yet another decades-long quagmire again.
The best foreign policy can be summed up in four words: "first, do no harm". Seriously, this is not a game, and the stakes have never been higher now.
UPDATE: Just a few days later on June 20, Iran confirmed that they shot down an unmanned American spy drone (again, PDO) that they claim was flying in their airspace, while the Trump administration claims it was over international waters. Time will tell who is telling the truth, perhaps even both if, for example, it turns out that the drone entered Iranian airspace first but was subsequently shot down over international waters. Maritime borders can be tricky and nuanced. Regardless, this is still not a good reason to go to war with Iran.
It is exceeding unlikely that the Orange Cheeto in Chief actually wants a shooting war with Iran. He himself has said as much. He would rather just bluff to make himself look tough while distracting from his myriad scandals closing in on him in the late stage of his failed presidency. And his puppetmaster Putin apparently doesn't want him to go to war with his buddy Iran, either. But now that Iran apparently called his bluff, and Bolton and Pompeo are still itching for war, the United States is now in a very precarious situation thanks to Trump's stupid bear-poking saber-rattling routines, and a war may still happen inadvertently in spite of him canceling it at the last minute. He is clearly like a crackhead playing with matches and gasoline, and every day he seems more and more unfit for the office of dogcatcher, let alone for the office of the Presidency.
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