Trump's deplorable immigration policy is only getting worse it seems. While the administration has supposedly stopped separating undocumented children from their parents at the border, the children thay have been separated already have still not been reunited. And as there is currently a crisis at the border with all of the recent asylum seekers, they are increasingly being detained in deplorable conditions without adequate food, water, and sanitation. We literally have innocent children being treated worse than convicted felons in this country.
And yes, "concentration camps" is the correct term, since the dictionary definition is "the mass detention of civilans without trial". So it looks like AOC is apparently spot-on. This is how it started in 1930s Germany, after all--first they had detention camps, then slave-labor camps, and only from 1941 onward did they have extermination (death) camps.
Look, it is clear that a lot of people don't like the term "concentration camps". Maybe we should call them "torture camps" instead, given that what all too often occurs in them meets the internationally recognized definition of torture, especially when it involves children. Or perhaps we should call them "Trump Camps" to guarantee that historians forever attach their memory to his name and vile and disgusting legacy, while ironically giving him a perverse ego boost without him even seeing the irony.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is planning even more ICE raids for the purpose of deporting more and more undocumented immigrants, including those who have been living here for years or decades and have no criminal records.
Clearly, such cruelty for cruelty's sake has NOT been any sort of deterrent, as the number of illegal border crossings has gone from the lowest it has been in years in much of 2017 to the highest it has been in decades by March 2019. Let that sink in.
That kinda backfired, didn't it? Meanwhile, the 100% preventable illnesses, injuries, and deaths of both children and adults in these camps just keep piling up every day that goes by. We can no longer call our country a "shining city on a hill" anymore as long as this continues. Even the late Ronald Reagan (who coined both that phrase, as well as the MAGA slogan, by the way) must be spinning in his grave right now.
To be sure, the crisis at the border does not have any easy, ready-made solutions at this point, and certainly requires thinking outside the box. Ideally, all immigrants should come in through the proper channels legally. But the system is currently broken, and when those proper channels are blocked off by the powers that be, for political reasons, clearly something has to give as a result. And the train has basically left the station at this point.
Don't look away. This is how it starts, people. The banality of evil, and "we were just following orders" and "the law is the law". So where's the long-overdue outrage? Remember, the only thing it takes for evil to prosper, is for good people to do nothing. Seriously.
Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Sunday, June 16, 2019
No War With Iran!
After the recent attacks on oil tankers in the Sea of Oman and Strait of Hormuz by an unknown attacker, Trump and his warmongering cronies are now hastily blaming Iran for these attacks. But there is plenty of reason to believe they are being, shall we say, "economical with the truth".
The timing alone is suspicious, as Trump has every reason to "wag the dog" to deflect from his ever-mounting scandals including, but not limited to, Russiagate. Also, the evidence is lacking and what little there is, just doesn't really seem to add up. And we know that Trump has been hell-bent on provoking Iran ever since pulling out of the nuclear deal last year. Time will tell, of course, but this really has "false flag" written all over it.
Besides, going to war with Iran would most likely be a disaster of epic proportions, and certainly not something to take lightly. And even if Iran does somehow turn out to be the culprit, the fact remains that the ships attacked were not even American tankers (they were Norwegian and Japanese), and fully zero Americans were harmed in the process. In fact, this was apparently a "property damage only" (PDO) incident. So let's NOT fall for this would-be modern-day Gulf of Tonkin incident and get sucked into yet another decades-long quagmire again.
The best foreign policy can be summed up in four words: "first, do no harm". Seriously, this is not a game, and the stakes have never been higher now.
UPDATE: Just a few days later on June 20, Iran confirmed that they shot down an unmanned American spy drone (again, PDO) that they claim was flying in their airspace, while the Trump administration claims it was over international waters. Time will tell who is telling the truth, perhaps even both if, for example, it turns out that the drone entered Iranian airspace first but was subsequently shot down over international waters. Maritime borders can be tricky and nuanced. Regardless, this is still not a good reason to go to war with Iran.
It is exceeding unlikely that the Orange Cheeto in Chief actually wants a shooting war with Iran. He himself has said as much. He would rather just bluff to make himself look tough while distracting from his myriad scandals closing in on him in the late stage of his failed presidency. And his puppetmaster Putin apparently doesn't want him to go to war with his buddy Iran, either. But now that Iran apparently called his bluff, and Bolton and Pompeo are still itching for war, the United States is now in a very precarious situation thanks to Trump's stupid bear-poking saber-rattling routines, and a war may still happen inadvertently in spite of him canceling it at the last minute. He is clearly like a crackhead playing with matches and gasoline, and every day he seems more and more unfit for the office of dogcatcher, let alone for the office of the Presidency.
The timing alone is suspicious, as Trump has every reason to "wag the dog" to deflect from his ever-mounting scandals including, but not limited to, Russiagate. Also, the evidence is lacking and what little there is, just doesn't really seem to add up. And we know that Trump has been hell-bent on provoking Iran ever since pulling out of the nuclear deal last year. Time will tell, of course, but this really has "false flag" written all over it.
Besides, going to war with Iran would most likely be a disaster of epic proportions, and certainly not something to take lightly. And even if Iran does somehow turn out to be the culprit, the fact remains that the ships attacked were not even American tankers (they were Norwegian and Japanese), and fully zero Americans were harmed in the process. In fact, this was apparently a "property damage only" (PDO) incident. So let's NOT fall for this would-be modern-day Gulf of Tonkin incident and get sucked into yet another decades-long quagmire again.
The best foreign policy can be summed up in four words: "first, do no harm". Seriously, this is not a game, and the stakes have never been higher now.
UPDATE: Just a few days later on June 20, Iran confirmed that they shot down an unmanned American spy drone (again, PDO) that they claim was flying in their airspace, while the Trump administration claims it was over international waters. Time will tell who is telling the truth, perhaps even both if, for example, it turns out that the drone entered Iranian airspace first but was subsequently shot down over international waters. Maritime borders can be tricky and nuanced. Regardless, this is still not a good reason to go to war with Iran.
It is exceeding unlikely that the Orange Cheeto in Chief actually wants a shooting war with Iran. He himself has said as much. He would rather just bluff to make himself look tough while distracting from his myriad scandals closing in on him in the late stage of his failed presidency. And his puppetmaster Putin apparently doesn't want him to go to war with his buddy Iran, either. But now that Iran apparently called his bluff, and Bolton and Pompeo are still itching for war, the United States is now in a very precarious situation thanks to Trump's stupid bear-poking saber-rattling routines, and a war may still happen inadvertently in spite of him canceling it at the last minute. He is clearly like a crackhead playing with matches and gasoline, and every day he seems more and more unfit for the office of dogcatcher, let alone for the office of the Presidency.
Friday, June 14, 2019
Take Back The Flag
Just pointing out that today is Flag Day. But this blog looks no different today because we display the Stars and Stripes every day (albeit inverted ever since Trump took office, as our nation is in distress).
To all the ignorant fools who burn it, remember what it is that you're really burning, and all those that fought and died for it. Those who consider themselves to be on the political left would be better served by "taking back the Flag" and waving it proudly, so it is not perverted into an ultra-right-wing symbol by the fascists. Make it clear that the government policies you oppose are not in the national interest. And let everyone know that you can just as strongly love this country as you fear its government. In fact, plenty of true patriots often do feel that way, and as Jefferson once said, "dissent is the highest form of patriotism."
The Flag is not Republican, Democrat, liberal, conservative, or belonging to any other faction. It is the American Flag, and it belongs to all of us. Live free or die!
To all the ignorant fools who burn it, remember what it is that you're really burning, and all those that fought and died for it. Those who consider themselves to be on the political left would be better served by "taking back the Flag" and waving it proudly, so it is not perverted into an ultra-right-wing symbol by the fascists. Make it clear that the government policies you oppose are not in the national interest. And let everyone know that you can just as strongly love this country as you fear its government. In fact, plenty of true patriots often do feel that way, and as Jefferson once said, "dissent is the highest form of patriotism."
The Flag is not Republican, Democrat, liberal, conservative, or belonging to any other faction. It is the American Flag, and it belongs to all of us. Live free or die!
Monday, May 27, 2019
How To Prevent--And Cure--The Next (Or Any) Recession Or Depression
With a recession likely coming later this year or next year at the latest, it is important to realize the causes so such recessions can be cured or even prevented in the first place. Enter Rodger Malcolm Mitchell, the guru of Monetary Sovereignty, penned this important and timely article.
He notes that every single recession and virtually every depression in history has been preceded by a cut in federal deficit spending, or worse, a federal surplus. That is not coincidence, since cutting the federal deficit slows the growth of the money supply, and surpluses actually shrink the money supply, all else being equal. (Federal deficit spending = spending new dollars into existence.) A growing economy requires a growing supply of money, and when the money supply fails to keep up with the demand for money for too long, the economy reacts by shrinking. Thus, barring a truly massive increase in private debt (i.e. more money lent into existence by banks) deficit cuts ultimately result in recessions and surpluses result in depressions or at least really long and deep recessions. And recessions and depressions can only be cured by increasing the money supply dramatically, typically by increasing federal deficit spending. That's it.
And this makes perfect sense, since GDP is literally nothing more than a money measure. To wit, GDP = Federal Spending + Nonfederal Spending + Net Exports. Kinda hard to grow that without sufficently growing the money supply as well.
Everything else is basically a sideshow, but that said, sometimes sideshows can be significant too. Take the current Trump Trade War, for example. This lose-lose, negative-sum game would have been recessionary by now had it not been for the massive growth in the federal deficit occurring at the same time, and eventually it may still cause the next recession in spite of the deficit. But if the Republicans decide to cut federal spending because of manufactured deficit hysteria, that will cause a far worse recession or depression, on top of the consequences of the trade war. And Wall Street recklessness can indeed cause financial crises, which of course can have knock-on effects on Main Street as well, as we have seen numerous times already. Though even that is most likely due to the fact that stock market crashes--or any other asset price crash--will shrink the money supply, all else being equal. And that is especially true when there is a "credit crunch" where banks suddenly refuse to lend as much as before, as we have seen in the wake of both the 1929 and 2008 stock market crashes (but not 1987).
What about oil and gasoline prices? True, 10 out of the past 11 recessions have been preceded by sharp increases in fuel prices. And that makes sense in a country in which oil is the lifeblood of the economy. But even this is more nuanced than one may think. Neither increases in interest rates alone nor increases in fuel prices alone seem to be enough to cause a recession by themselves unless such increases are truly extreme, which is very rare. But the simultaneous combination of significantly large increases in both (that is, a sharp hike in the Fed Funds Rate by more than 2.00-2.50% AND at least a doubling of crude oil prices within a year or two) appears to be sufficient to cause a recession. Of course, given how rare it is for recessions to not be preceded by cuts in deficit spending, it is not clear if sufficient deficit spending can be enough to prevent an oil-induced recession while interest rates are also hiked to prevent or cure inflation. But at the very least, increasing federal deficits will cure such recessions once the inflation dragon is defeated.
Overall, we know what causes virtually all recessions and depressions. That means we also know how to prevent and cure them as well. That is, when recession hits, or ideally before it hits, we should increase federal deficit spending, or at least refrain from cutting it. It's really not rocket science.
He notes that every single recession and virtually every depression in history has been preceded by a cut in federal deficit spending, or worse, a federal surplus. That is not coincidence, since cutting the federal deficit slows the growth of the money supply, and surpluses actually shrink the money supply, all else being equal. (Federal deficit spending = spending new dollars into existence.) A growing economy requires a growing supply of money, and when the money supply fails to keep up with the demand for money for too long, the economy reacts by shrinking. Thus, barring a truly massive increase in private debt (i.e. more money lent into existence by banks) deficit cuts ultimately result in recessions and surpluses result in depressions or at least really long and deep recessions. And recessions and depressions can only be cured by increasing the money supply dramatically, typically by increasing federal deficit spending. That's it.
And this makes perfect sense, since GDP is literally nothing more than a money measure. To wit, GDP = Federal Spending + Nonfederal Spending + Net Exports. Kinda hard to grow that without sufficently growing the money supply as well.
Everything else is basically a sideshow, but that said, sometimes sideshows can be significant too. Take the current Trump Trade War, for example. This lose-lose, negative-sum game would have been recessionary by now had it not been for the massive growth in the federal deficit occurring at the same time, and eventually it may still cause the next recession in spite of the deficit. But if the Republicans decide to cut federal spending because of manufactured deficit hysteria, that will cause a far worse recession or depression, on top of the consequences of the trade war. And Wall Street recklessness can indeed cause financial crises, which of course can have knock-on effects on Main Street as well, as we have seen numerous times already. Though even that is most likely due to the fact that stock market crashes--or any other asset price crash--will shrink the money supply, all else being equal. And that is especially true when there is a "credit crunch" where banks suddenly refuse to lend as much as before, as we have seen in the wake of both the 1929 and 2008 stock market crashes (but not 1987).
What about oil and gasoline prices? True, 10 out of the past 11 recessions have been preceded by sharp increases in fuel prices. And that makes sense in a country in which oil is the lifeblood of the economy. But even this is more nuanced than one may think. Neither increases in interest rates alone nor increases in fuel prices alone seem to be enough to cause a recession by themselves unless such increases are truly extreme, which is very rare. But the simultaneous combination of significantly large increases in both (that is, a sharp hike in the Fed Funds Rate by more than 2.00-2.50% AND at least a doubling of crude oil prices within a year or two) appears to be sufficient to cause a recession. Of course, given how rare it is for recessions to not be preceded by cuts in deficit spending, it is not clear if sufficient deficit spending can be enough to prevent an oil-induced recession while interest rates are also hiked to prevent or cure inflation. But at the very least, increasing federal deficits will cure such recessions once the inflation dragon is defeated.
Overall, we know what causes virtually all recessions and depressions. That means we also know how to prevent and cure them as well. That is, when recession hits, or ideally before it hits, we should increase federal deficit spending, or at least refrain from cutting it. It's really not rocket science.
Sunday, May 26, 2019
The Best Way To Honor Our Fallen Heroes
This Memorial Day, and any other day of the year for that matter, the best way to honor our fallen heroes is to stop making more of them, as blogger Dave Hitt famously noted. We need to bring our troops home and stop sending more and more of our servicemembers to these unnecessary wars of choice. And of course, our Veterans need to be properly cared for as well, something that, with few exceptions, both corporate duopoly parties in government have consistently failed to do for decades now.
Let us now take a moment of silence for our fallen heroes who have made the ultimate sacrifice for our country.
Let us now take a moment of silence for our fallen heroes who have made the ultimate sacrifice for our country.
Monday, May 20, 2019
What The (Latest) Right-Wing Attack On Women's Reproductive Rights Is Really About (Hint: It's NOT The Sanctity Of Life)
In recent weeks, the long-standing right-wing assault on women's reproductive rights has heated up dramatically. Now that there are enough right-wing reactionary judges on the Supreme Court to seriously endanger Roe v. Wade, several states have passed increasingly restrictive abortion laws. It did not stop with the TRAP laws, bizarre restrictions, and attempts to defund Planned Parenthood years ago. And it will NOT stop with the latest "heartbeat" laws in Missouri, Ohio, and Georgia, or with Alabama's near-absolute BAN on abortion either. And if unchecked, it will NOT stop with overturning Roe v. Wade (and Doe v. Bolton) either, since after that, Griswold v. Connecticut and Eisenstadt v. Baird (the cases that legalized birth control) is ultimately in their sights as well.
Now you see why they were in such a rush to get Brett Kavanaugh confirmed despite the cloud of sexual assault (including attempted rape) allegations hanging over his head. But why the recent push to ultimately eradicate women's reproductive rights NOW? Why has it become so feverish, more so than usual? It is no coincidence that Alabama's draconian abortion ban was signed into law on the same day that it was announced that the birth rate, particularly the total fertility rate (TFR), had apparently dropped to a new low for the USA: 1.728 children per woman. Granted it is not the only reason, but the panic among both the religulous reich as well as the corporate oligarchy is certainly palpable, since capitalism depends on growth for the sake of growth, the ideology of the cancer cell that eventually kills its host, by the way. It's basically one giant Ponzi scheme, with patriarchy as its main protection racket.
What we are witnessing is a sort of "birth strike" by American women, and even men as well, particularly of the Millennial generation. Given the outrageous cost of living these days, and especially the cost of raising even one child (let alone two or more), lack of social support for parents and a fraying social safety net in general, stagnant wages, a hollowed-out middle class, and the massive albatross of student loan debt, it actually makes perfect sense. They are the ones who are actually thinking rationally here.
And contrary to what the naysayers may claim, that is actually a very GOOD thing on balance. The world is grossly overpopulated and in serious ecological overshoot, and Americans' truly elephantine ecological footprint per capita due to our massive pollution and overconsumption of resources only makes it that much more important to reduce birthrates in the USA relative to the rest of the world. And such grave ecological concerns greatly dwarf any social and economic concerns about population aging and other consequences of low birthrates. Especially since with a Monetarily Sovereign government like our own federal government, money is literally no object when it comes to things like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and things like that--the government can literally only go broke if they choose to. And our addiction to economic growth is also part of the problem in terms of ecological sustainability, so that fear needs to be jettisoned at once as well.
Now you see why they were in such a rush to get Brett Kavanaugh confirmed despite the cloud of sexual assault (including attempted rape) allegations hanging over his head. But why the recent push to ultimately eradicate women's reproductive rights NOW? Why has it become so feverish, more so than usual? It is no coincidence that Alabama's draconian abortion ban was signed into law on the same day that it was announced that the birth rate, particularly the total fertility rate (TFR), had apparently dropped to a new low for the USA: 1.728 children per woman. Granted it is not the only reason, but the panic among both the religulous reich as well as the corporate oligarchy is certainly palpable, since capitalism depends on growth for the sake of growth, the ideology of the cancer cell that eventually kills its host, by the way. It's basically one giant Ponzi scheme, with patriarchy as its main protection racket.
What we are witnessing is a sort of "birth strike" by American women, and even men as well, particularly of the Millennial generation. Given the outrageous cost of living these days, and especially the cost of raising even one child (let alone two or more), lack of social support for parents and a fraying social safety net in general, stagnant wages, a hollowed-out middle class, and the massive albatross of student loan debt, it actually makes perfect sense. They are the ones who are actually thinking rationally here.
And contrary to what the naysayers may claim, that is actually a very GOOD thing on balance. The world is grossly overpopulated and in serious ecological overshoot, and Americans' truly elephantine ecological footprint per capita due to our massive pollution and overconsumption of resources only makes it that much more important to reduce birthrates in the USA relative to the rest of the world. And such grave ecological concerns greatly dwarf any social and economic concerns about population aging and other consequences of low birthrates. Especially since with a Monetarily Sovereign government like our own federal government, money is literally no object when it comes to things like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and things like that--the government can literally only go broke if they choose to. And our addiction to economic growth is also part of the problem in terms of ecological sustainability, so that fear needs to be jettisoned at once as well.
In fact, one recent study finds the ideal TFR in terms of standards of living overall is in fact in the 1.5-2.0 range, basically the same as what the TSAP has long advocated since our founding nearly a decade ago in 2009. Yes, really. Take that, birth dearthers!
Of course, it is not all wine and roses either. The very same New York Times article that we referenced in a previous post does note that both women and men are on average having fewer kids than their own self-reported ideal numbers, primarly due to economic reasons. Part of the decline in fertility is due to Millennial women having more choices than previous generations, of course, but at the same time those choices are severely constrained by economics. Our nation has a truly abysmal record of providing paid family leave, high-quality childcare, and social safety net benefits in general compared to most other modern and even semi-modern countries. And in spite of increasing gender equality in many ways, the modern workplace remains both largely male-dominated and male-defined, and thus stuck in the past in terms of work-life balance. And while the perennial fears of low birthrates are largely overblown, it is still entirely possible that if they eventually fall to extremely low levels (such as Japan's 1.2-1.4 over the past two decades) and remain that low for decades at a time, we may very well hit a "pothole" on the road to sustainability. So there is still plenty of room for improvement in that regard, even if current TFRs are right where they should be. And besides, it is simply the right thing to do regardless of fertility rates and any concerns about such numbers.
If the pro-lifers and pro-natalists really cared, they would instantly advocate not only very generous paid family leave and subsidized (if not free), high-quality childcare, but would also support things like Universal Basic Income (UBI) to eliminate poverty (especially child poverty) while also (partially) compensating the unpaid work of mothers (and some fathers as well). They would also advocate better quality education from pre-K through post-grad, also free, as opposed to currently trying to kill the entire public education system via death by a thousand cuts. They would advocate better work-life balance for both women AND men, higher minimum wages, and especially shortening the workweek (what's the point of having kids if you are never going to see them?). And they would also advocate single-payer Medicare For All. But do you see them advocating any of those things? Of course not. Gee, I wonder why.
So can you really blame young people for effectively going on a (partial) reproductive strike given the world we currently live in? Of course not.
So can you really blame young people for effectively going on a (partial) reproductive strike given the world we currently live in? Of course not.
The best way to sum things up: Want us Millennials to have (more) kids? Give us a quarter-million dollars, then we'll talk. Because that's about how much it costs on average to raise a child from birth through age 18--and that doesn't even include college. And besides, our Mother Earth will truly thank us in the long run. Otherwise, silence is golden. Capisce?
Friday, April 19, 2019
The Mueller Report Is Out--And Even The Redacted Version Is A Lot More Damning Than Trump Wants You To Believe
Well, the much anticipated Mueller Report is out now, and even the redacted version is a LOT more damning than Trump or Barr want anyone to believe. Seriously. While it is ostensibly inconclusive about Trump's personal participation in the Russian hacking and interference, the three most important words in the entire 400+ page report are "does NOT exonerate", particularly in relation to the high crime of obstruction of justice. And even the inconclusiveness was largely due 1) important evidence apparently being deleted/destroyed by some of the major players in the Russiagate scandal, and 2) apparent duress, however subtle, to one degree or another, from the Justice Department under Trump.
I mean, this is the very same Donald Trump who unceremoniously fired FBI Director James Comey, then forced Attorney General Jeff Sessions to resign, and even tried to fire Robert Mueller himself--all because he wanted the ever-growing Russiagate investigation to just go away already. Ipse dixit--he himself said it, after all. If that is not a textbook example of obstruction of justice, and one that would make even Tricky Dick Nixon himself blush, in fact, I really don't know what is anymore.
And that is just the redacted version! In other words, Trump is NOT out of the woods yet, if ever. His fate now rests in the hands of Congress, as well as the Southern District of New York, who is now led by Attorney General Letitia James. So Donald, if I were you, I would do us all a YUUUGE favor and RESIGN, yesterday. Then pray that you don't ultimately end up behind bars, because I doubt they would take very kindly to the likes of you in the big house.
I mean, this is the very same Donald Trump who unceremoniously fired FBI Director James Comey, then forced Attorney General Jeff Sessions to resign, and even tried to fire Robert Mueller himself--all because he wanted the ever-growing Russiagate investigation to just go away already. Ipse dixit--he himself said it, after all. If that is not a textbook example of obstruction of justice, and one that would make even Tricky Dick Nixon himself blush, in fact, I really don't know what is anymore.
And that is just the redacted version! In other words, Trump is NOT out of the woods yet, if ever. His fate now rests in the hands of Congress, as well as the Southern District of New York, who is now led by Attorney General Letitia James. So Donald, if I were you, I would do us all a YUUUGE favor and RESIGN, yesterday. Then pray that you don't ultimately end up behind bars, because I doubt they would take very kindly to the likes of you in the big house.
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