Will California Dreaming Finally Become A Reality in 2016?

In 2010, it seemed very likely that California would legalize recreational cannabis use via ballot initiative.  Unfortunately, the initiative failed.  But this year, it looks like they have a much better chance, given how it will be a presidential election and how California would not be the first state to do so this time around.  The California Medical Association even endorses one such initiative. And as goes California, so goes the nation.

Of course, even bigger news is that several New England states are also looking this year to join Colorado, Washington, Alaska, Oregon, and DC as states in which cannabis is fully legal.   Ditto for Michigan and Nevada as well.  There is even currently a bill in Congress called the "Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol Act", which would decriminalize cannabis at the federal level by removing it from scheduling under the Controlled Substances Act and leave it up to the states to regulate as they see fit.  Thus, it's only a matter of time before the ganja is fully legal nationwide.

And thus far, the best available evidence suggests that legalization has been a resounding success overall in the states where it has already been implemented.  Not only did tax revenue exceed expectations, but practically none of the predicted "parade of horrors" that the fearmongering opponents predicted would occur actually materialized.  And several recent studies have debunked many if not all of the prohibitionists' favorite talking points and scaremongering studies on the supposed dangers of cannabis.  Looks like Brian C. Bennett was right after all--it's nowhere near as scary as they want us to think.

While cannabis, like any other psychoactive substance, is not 100% safe for everybody and can indeed be harmful when abused, the overwhelming weight of the scientific evidence of the past 150+ years suggests that by just about any rational and objective measure it is safer than alcohol, tobacco, most prescription drugs, Tylenol, and even some foods, and is generally less addictive than coffee.  And while there is some evidence that regular use of weed, like alcohol, may present unique risks to people under 18 (and especially under 15), there is no hard scientific evidence that it is any more dangerous for an 18 year old than for a 21 year old or a 30 year old for that matter.  And the best evidence suggests that, as we learned the hard way with alcohol in the 1920s, prohibition clearly does more harm than good.  Thus, there is really no good reason to keep cannabis illegal or treat it any more stringently than alcohol or tobacco in a free society.

We should note that the TSAP is not a "pro-drugs" party. Rather, we are pro-liberty and anti-tyranny. We do not actually endorse the use of any substances, including alcohol and tobacco, but believe that legal adults are sovereign in body and mind and that prohibition of these substances clearly does more harm than good on balance.  Remember, the term "controlled substance" is actually a misnomer since it is virtually impossible to adequately control that which is prohibited.

To all those who live in California (or any other state with legalization or medicalization initiatives on the ballot), especially those under 30:  Get out there and rock the vote this November!

AND NOW FOR A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT:

Kids, talk to your parents.  Show them the following.

This is your country:

This is DrugWar:

This is your country on DrugWar:

Any questions?

How to Prepare for the Next Big Crash (Part Deux)

As we have noted before, things are really not looking good for the global economy this year.  Whether we actually experience another financial crisis on the order of 2008 or even 1929 (or worse) is a matter of debate, but the time to prepare for such a scenario is yesterday.  At the very least, another recession is inevitable at this point by 2017 at the latest, since no economic expansion has lasted much more than eight years straight in this country (with the notable exception of 1991-2001 that lasted exactly ten years).  Granted, the expansion from July 2009 to the present mostly benefited the rich, and until around 2014 practically entirely benefited the rich, but it was still technically an expansion of the economy even if the growth was largely uneconomic in practice.  And expansions can only go on so long before a contraction (i.e. recession or depression) inevitably occurs--it's just a fundamental truth of the business cycle.

One thing is for sure--things are very different this time around at least in terms of monetary policy.  At least in 2008, interest rates were well above-zero, and could be cut to stimulate the economy (or, more accurately, stop or slow down the hemorrhaging).  When that proved to be futile, then the Feral Reserve and many of the world's other major central banks resorted to "quantitative easing" (i.e. creating money out of thin air and giving it to the banks directly).  In late 2014, the USA tapered off and ended its QE policy, and in December 2015 ended its zero interest-rate policy by raising the Fed Funds Rate to 0.25-0.50%.  But now, the central banks of the world are starting from zero or close to zero--and some banks including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have even resorted to negative interest rates recently.  That means they are effectively charging depositors for the "privilege" of depositing money, and effectively paying borrowers to borrow money, which basically turns the world of finance upside-down.  Such negative rate territory is uncharted waters, since until a few years ago no country has ever dared to do such a thing.  And there is currently no evidence that such a move will be beneficial, and may in fact turn out to do more harm than good overall.

So monetary policy basically needs a new set of tools and a new game plan to deal with the next crisis, whenever it occurs.  The Feral Reserve and the other central banks of the world are basically still using an outdated playbook.  In the near-term, two things need to change yesterday.  First of all, they need to abandon interest-rate targets altogether for the time being, and instead focus on targeting the growth of the overall economy.  Like Paul Volcker did in 1979-1982, but done in reverse since the "inflation dragon" is not the problem this time.  Secondly, implement Quantitiative Easing for We the People in general (as opposed to the banks, which only benefits the ultra-rich) by injecting newly-created money into everyone's bank accounts.  Granted, the latter measure would probably require an Act of Congress to allow it to occur legally, but as the Feral Reserve is currently debating the legality of negative interest rates in the future, I'm sure they could find some sort of a loophole to allow it in an emergency such as a massive financial crisis.  And of course fiscal stimulus would likely be necessary as well, in additional to much needed reforms to regulate Wall Street and the big banks (a law that rhymes with "brass seagull" comes to mind, as well as a financial transactions tax and better regulation of the shadow banking system), but those two changes to monetary policy would go a long way towards preventing the next recession/crisis from turning into another 2008 or worse.  And of course the silly idea of negative interest rates needs to be abandoned as well.

But let's be brutally honest.  What we are really witnessing these days is the death of an obsolete system, one that has been kept on life support for many years now.  And eventually we will have to pull the plug on it, sooner or later.  It's just a matter of time.

How to Prepare for the Next Big Crash

As we have noted in the previous article, the risk of the next big economic crash continues to loom large, and it may be too late to actually prevent it from occurring entirely.  That's not to say that there aren't things that should be done to prepare for it to make it less catastrophic, though.  Back in 2014, the TSAP had predicted that a crash would occur within a few short years, and we had written an article then discussing how to prevent it before it occurs or at least take the edge off of it, while ending the previous economic "stagpression" for good.   And we should note that these things would indeed help take the edge off of the next looming financial crisis as well.

Two things come to mind right away:  1) a Universal Basic Income Guarantee for all, an idea that is LONG overdue, and 2) Quantitiative Easing for We the People in general (as opposed to the banks, which only benefits the ultra-rich) by injecting newly-created money into everyone's bank accounts.  Additionally, we need to better regulate the Wall Street casino so such a crisis could never happen again, and also JAIL the banksters who caused the crisis (instead of bailing them out) like Iceland did.  A debt jubilee would be even better still, but even the things we just mentioned are a fairly tall order for a government who is bought and paid for by the banksters/oligarchs.  While other things need to be done as well in the long run, such as critical investments in infrastructure and education, the aforementioned measures would go a long way towards fixing our ailing economy.

Those are the things that should be done at the government level, of course.  At the individual level, there is really not much one can do except get OUT of the stock market while you still can, and take at least most of your money OUT of the big banks (before the "bail-ins" begin) and put it into smaller banks, credit unions, or even under your mattress.  Or even in a big, brown bag inside a zoo.

Is the Crash of 2016 Upon Us?

A few years ago, Thom Hartmann wrote a book called The Crash of 2016:  The Plot to Destroy America.  And recent events suggest that book is even more presicent than we originally thought:

• Economic inequality remains at historically high levels, and history has shown that high levels of inequality are virtually always followed by a massive stock market crash and a deep recession or depression, as infamously happened in 1929 and 2008.
• The stock market has been artificially high (a bubble) for a few years now and the Dow Jones dropped from a high of over 18,000 to below 16,000, most of which in the past month alone.  The drop has actually been faster that the same period in early 2008.
• The Feral Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) ended in late 2014 and their zero-rate policy ended in December 2015, both of which have been artificially propping up the stock market. 
• The stock bubble was also fueled by corporations buying back their own stock and/or cannibalizing their workforces, for the most part.  And that clearly can't go on forever.
• We still have not yet fully recovered from the previous crisis and depression. 
• Rich Dad famously predicted in 2010 that the stock market would crash in 2016 thanks to ERISA, which mandates that retirees start taking money out of IRAs (and thus out of the stock market) by age 70 1/2 at the latest.  And guess what age the first Baby Boomers turn this year?  You guessed it!
• Industrial production dropped in the fourth quarter of 2015, which historically predicts at least a recession in the near future.
• There has been concern that China's recent economic weakness will affect us as well.
• Recently, a key trade indicator, the cost of shipping "dry goods" (Baltic Dry Index), has dropped to historically low levels, and history has shown that index to be a bellwether of the global economy.  This would actually predict a worse crash than 2008.
• Oil prices have been plummeting since mid-2014, and this has been hurting oil companies' profits.  And apparently the banks have made some pretty bad bets on that.
• And finally, the real kicker:  Thanks to the Wall Street casino remaining poorly regulated, the same derivatives bubble that caused the Crash of 2008 is now bigger than ever, and all it would take is one default in just the right place and it will burst, with severe consequences.

So given the above facts, there is good reason to predict a massive financial crisis and stock market crash in 2016, one that, as Thom Hartmann predicts, would make 2008 and even 1929 look like a walk in the park.  Now it is entirely possible that such a thing will not occur, or will be much milder than he predicts.  But the risk that he is correct seems to be growing every day now.

Oh, and by the way--there appears to be no "safe haven" for money this time.  Commodities are doing poorly, and as Ellen Brown has repeatedly noted for years now, the big banks supposedly have a plot to confiscate our deposits via "bail-ins".  Thus, FDIC would basically become a dead letter in practice, and the resulting bank runs would undoubtedly deepen any financial crisis.  Not to say that the Feral Reserve won't bail out the banks again, but there is still such a risk.  Caveat emptor, and caveat lector as well.

How To Really Defeat ISIL For Good

The USA and coalition forces have been bombing Daesh/ISIL (which we prefer to call them so as not to inadvertently profane the name of the Goddess) for over a year now, 17 months to be exact.  And Russia has been bombing them for nearly three months now.   And yet they still seem to be spreading, even though they are clearly on the losing side in the long run.   After the first few weeks of bombing in August/September 2014, the fight basically became a stalemate which lasted until Russia started their airstrikes in Syria, tipping the balance against Daesh once more.

Now the hawks such as Donald Chump are, unsurprisingly, calling for an escalation of this war.   Clearly, we are already fighting fire with gasoline, and those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.  In fact, it was our own meddling and warmongering that caused Daesh to become a problem in the first place!  But here is a better idea--let's NOT give Daesh the "holy war" they so desperately want.  In fact, Tom Englehardt (Tom Dispatch) and Peter van Buren have the best idea of all--quick withdrawal, after getting them where it really hurts by taking out their OIL.  Such targets--wellheads and oil trucks--are not at all hard to find, and are fairly easy to take out from the air.  And put diplomatic and economic pressure on Turkey and other so-called "allies" to stem the flow of Daesh oil as well.  Because oil is their primary source of funding, and removing that will cause them to quickly collapse of their own weight, and when they are seen as a failure then few would want to join them.  And once we take it out, then GTFO and let Daesh fall on their own sword.

The TSAP agrees with that idea, and we would also like to add to that.  Before withdrawing, we should give every *woman* over there an AK-47 and tell them to take over their country and mow down anyone who stands in their way. Let Allah sort it out. Problem solved. But of course, the mostly-male powers that be would not be too keen on that idea. After all, they wouldn't want women in THIS country getting any ideas, now would they?  (Of course, the TSAP believes that women should take over the world in order to save it, so that wouldn't really be a bad idea)

Honestly, it is certainly a better idea than arming questionable male "rebels" who end up turning traitor.  VIVE LA FEMME! 

Where We Stand Today

Since our founding in 2009, the True Spirit of America Party (TSAP) has come a long way.  Many of our positions on various issues have evolved since then, in some cases rather dramatically.

• Originally, we believed that capitalism could perhaps be redeemed and used for the greater good.  Currently, the TSAP is essentially anti-capitalist since we now realize that capitalism cannot be redeemed, and its addiction to growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell, which eventually kills its host.  We must leave room for Nature, lest Nature not leave room for us.
• Originally, the TSAP was staunchly pro-guns and in some ways to the right of the NRA.  But with the recent increase in mass shootings and what we have learned since then, we have since adopted a more nuanced and moderate position on the issue of gun control.
• Originally, the TSAP attempted to find common ground with the nascent Tea Party movement and the broader Patriot movement in 2009-2010.  Since around 2011 or so, we have since ended such attempts upon realizing that they are, by and large, just another reich-wing racist and neo-fascist movement.  We now prefer the Occupy movement instead, by far.
• Originally, our stance on immigration was relatively hard-line; it has since softened quite a bit.  We now believe in a more generous amnesty program, as not doing so would be far too cruel. And we also realize just how blinded by white privilege we once were.
• Originally, the TSAP was pro-nuclear power all the way;  as of 2015 we now currently take the more neutral stance that the Union of Concerned Scientists takes, neither for nor against it.
• Originally, the TSAP believed that with very few exceptions, every able-bodied adult should "work for a living".  We now feel that such an idea is archaic and outdated, and that Buckminster Fuller would be rolling in his grave.  There are more than enough resources in the world such that with today's technology we no longer NEED everyone to "work for a living" unless they really wanted to.  The real problem is that our abundance is being wasted and/or hoarded by the oligarchs, to the detriment of everyone else.
• Originally, the TSAP was "egalitarian" on the issue of gender for the most part.  We also assumed that our party (including our leader Ajax the Great) would eventually save the world, lol.  But more recently, we now believe that it ain't gonna be us fellas who will save the world.  Only women would really be able to do so, and to do so they must take over.  Yesterday.  The futurists are unanimous about this:  the future belongs to women.  Thus, as of 2014 our party has been an observer of the Matriarchy movement, and as of 2016 we have basically joined the movement fully.  At the same time, we will continue to support our cause of progressive libertarianism to the fullest, as we believe that the two are perfectly compatible.  We would like to thank the distinguished Guru Rasa von Werder and William Bond for helping us see the light in that regard, as well as several others such as Pat Ravasio and Riane Eisler who have inspired us along the way.

Thus, our rather dynamic third party is continuing to evolve.  As John Mellencamp and India Arie would say, "If you're not part of the future, get out of the way!"

UPDATE:  The TSAP party leader, Ajax the Great, has recently created a new blog about the Matriarchy movement, called "The Chalice and the Flame".   Please check it out.  Opinions expressed therein are those of Ajax the Great and not necessarily the TSAP as a whole.