It is June now, and we at the TSAP think it is time to issue tentative grades for each country on how they handled the pandemic. These will be updated over time. Grades are based on a mixture of per-capita death rates, economic damage, and policy measures. All grades are on a curve, normalized with the European average set at C. Here is the current list:
Taiwan: A+
Hong Kong: A
Iceland: A
Belarus: A
Norway: A
Finland: A
Denmark: A
Japan: A-
New Zealand: A-
Germany: A-
Austria: A-
Russian Federation: B+
Portugal: B+
Australia: B+
Canada: B
Singapore: B-
Switzerland: C+
Netherlands: C
Sweden: C
USA: C (overall, varies by state)
Brazil: D
France: D
Italy: F
Spain: F
UK: F
Belgium: F
China: F (though they really deserve a Z, for infecting the whole world!)
Countries that avoided a full lockdown and still got good results automatically get higher grades than those who achieved the same results with a full lockdown.
For US states, a partial list of states' grades:
Washington State: A
Iowa: A
Wyoming: A
Hawaii: A-
South Dakota: A-
Arkansas: A-
North Dakota: A-
Oregon: A-
California: B+
Florida: B+
Georgia: B+
South Carolina: B
North Carolina: B
Texas: B-
Arizona: C+
DC: C
Maryland: C
Virginia: C
Wisconsin: C
Connecticut: C-
Massachusetts: C-
Louisiana: D
Illinois: D
Michigan: D-
Pennsylvania: D-
New Jersey: F
New York: F
If you remove the seven worst states, the USA has one of the mildest outbreaks in the world. Only a very few states are worse than the European average as far as per capita death rates. And non-lockdown states outperform most non-lockdown states.
All of these grades are of course subject to change in the coming weeks and months.
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Thankfully, the coronavirus outbreak will soon end. Herd immunity helps.
ReplyDeleteIndeed, that is true. The epidemic is petering out in virtually all countries, as if the virus is getting tired or even bored, and herd immunity certainly helps. New York, my neck of the woods, seems to be already there, as is England (especially London) and the greater Stockholm area of Sweden, and many other places as well both now and to follow very soon. Even in Brazil the epidemic will end soon, despite a delay in its beginning there.
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