Sunday, January 10, 2021

Still More Evidence That Lockdowns Don't Work And Do More Harm Than Good--So Why Do They Still Exist?

In case you are still not convinced that lockdowns are worse than useless, after we have repeatedly presented evidence since April 2020, there is even more evidence now a year into the pandemic.

A recent study that compared more-restrictive NPIs (i.e. mandatory stay-at-home orders and business closures) to less-restrictive NPIs, and (unlike some studies) teased out the the effects of the latter from the former, did not find significant benefits on the course of a country's epicurve from the former, and perhaps even a perverse effect.  And another study finds an uncanny resemblance between the shapes of the epicurves of each virus wave in nearly every country in the world regardless of what they did for the most part.  This also works when comparing states and localities as well, by the way.  And worse, yet another study finds that the harms of lockdowns may very exceed the supposed benefits by a factor of TEN.

But hey, we could've told you that nine months ago.

In other words, with very few exceptions, the strictest lockdown countries and states sure "flattened the curve" all right--VERTICALLY.  If such extraordinary restrictions are applied too late, it is like gasoline on the fire.  And when applied earlier, it may delay things a bit before exploding sooner or later, but the more it does when it does.  But ultimately, it does not make much if any difference in terms of the progress of the virus once it becomes widespread enough.  Thus, early lockdowns are unnecessary compared to less-restrictive NPIs, late lockdowns are truly worse than useless, and both cause unnecessary and utterly preventable collateral damage.

So what do we call doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results?

QED

UPDATE:  Still another study, this time in the Northern Jutland region of Denmark where some areas had strict lockdowns while others didn't, finds no detectable difference in COVID rates between lockdown and non-lockdown locations.  Lockdowns apparently did not stop or even slow down transmission of the virus.  If the results of that natural experiment are not the final nail in the coffin for lockdowns, we really don't know what is.

And the UK?  Well, COVID infections were apparently already dropping before Lockdown 2.0 went into effect, and already rising again before the lockdown was relaxed.  Thus, the correlation with cases and deaths is most likely spurious and unrelated, and the lockdown clearly didn't do a lick of good.  But of course that didn't stop Boris from implementing Lockdown 3.0, which will likely last longer than the first two lockdowns combined.  The first time was naive, the second time was stupid, and the third time is truly the very height of thick-headedness!

And yet again, true to form, early evidence suggests that for Lockdown 3.0, infections also already peaked before that one would have had any sort of effect either.  In other words, the powers that be have a tendency to impose or tighten lockdown restrictions right around the peak, and then take credit for declines in cases that would have occurred regardless.

Oh, and school closures?  Yet another study came out showing that the lockdown zealots were wrong and that we at the TSAP were essentially right all along, namely that keeping schools open and fairly normal, even in times and places of significant community spread, and even without masks, does NOT lead to disaster for students, teachers, or anyone else.  And again, we could have told you that nine months ago.

Meanwhile, the collateral damage continues to mount, and will do so for many years to come. 

If only we had stuck to the wisdom of the ages that prevailed before March 2020, instead of throwing it all out the window like so much garbage.

STOP PRESS:  Be sure to also check out the ever-insightful Toby Young's excellent rebuttal to turncoat Christopher Snowdon's pro-lockdown piece, and Young's second rebuttal to Snowdon's rejoinder as well.  He debunks, debones, slices, dices, and juliennes the perpetually flimsy case for lockdowns, and pretty much lays waste to its remains.

Oh and by the way, Sweden, who famously eschewed lockdowns and barely even wore any masks, had a lower excess death rate for 2020 than most of Europe did.  Their COVID death rate was about average for Europe while their excess all-cause mortality was in fact better than average.  Kinda like how wide-open Florida did better than the USA average.

12 comments:

  1. Ajax the Great for President 2024! Come on, you need to run for office.

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    1. Do you approve my official endorsement?

      https://waylandellis.blogspot.com/2021/01/my-official-endorsement-of-ajax-great.html

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    2. I'm Ajax the Great, and I approve this message!

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    3. Alas, not only are my words falling on the very deafest of ears, but I see even the formerly anti-lockdown Christopher Snowdon appears to have switched sides recently to the pro-lockdown side, and is throwing skeptics under the bus now. FEH.

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    4. I added some new updates to this post as well.

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    5. A good rebuttal to turncoat Snowdon can be found here: https://lockdownsceptics.org/progressing-the-debate-an-observation-on-christopher-snowdens-quillette-article/

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  2. Ajax, you act like the government is sincere in trying to curb a pandemic. I don't believe in them. IMO they have created this virus & spread it, as a form of biowarfare against the citizens, the people. Their intentions are sinister. They want to decrease the population so they can control us better - after all - there are only about 20K of those 'in charge' & billions of us. They want to herd us like animals, into 'reservations,' 'factory farms,' cities, where they can control, exploit, drain, use us up. And if any serious rebellions occur, they have concentration camps ready to fry us the way Hitler did Jews. Bill g is one of the big shots calling the cues. This man is patently insane & should be put in lockdown in a mental institution. First, he is taking drugs to enhance his brain - a drug that sounds like cocaine to me. Second, he is now sponsoring a Harvard study to DIM THE SUN to prevent global warming. {Is Harvard insane or just playing alone with him for money} He's done a Ted talk where he said vaccines will help CURB THE OVERPOPULATION. He is one example of what these people are trying to do. They are murdering people. Once they get us to accept injections, they will put every kind of disease, poison, HIV, microchip, sterilizer, into the vaccines. Beware of Patriarchal governments, they are murderous, insane, sinister, demonic entities who do not have your interests in mind, they have their interests in mind, which are to rule, control & exploit at any cost. Beware, beware, beware. I saw a documentary - not fantasies or lies - during the Cold War our country was doing a project to BLOW UP THE MOON. They were going to do this to show Russia that we were superior - they were going to put so many nuclear bombs on the moon, it would explode. This if possible, would have disturbed all life o our planet. Now they are working to dim the Sun, & Ajax, you take these guys seriously about wanting to curb a pandemic?

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    1. The patriarchy and oligarchy are indeed quite diabolical, and I really wouldn't put anything past them at this juncture of history.

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  3. https://www.amazon.sg/Adams-Curse-Future-Without-Men/dp/0393326802

    The cure for Patriarchy. The cure for all world ills, nothing else will work. No man on a white horse, male extinction. Adam's Curse: A Future Without Men is a 2003 book by Oxford University human genetics professor Bryan Sykes expounding his hypothesis that with the declining sperm count in men and the continual atrophy of the Y chromosome, within 5,000 generations men shall become extinct. Wikipedia

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    1. Sad but true, it seems. Of course, 5000 generations (or 100,000+ years) is a very, very long time. Some researchers put it at 3000 years (or 150 generations instead), but that is still a very long time as well.

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    2. I can wait, haha - Just to know THERE IS A FUTURE warms my heart, because with men running the world, there might not be

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