Showing posts with label banks big money. Show all posts
Showing posts with label banks big money. Show all posts

Saturday, February 15, 2025

1971: The Year That Changed Everything (But Probably Not For The Reason You Think)

NOTE:  It's almost certainly NOT what you think!

On August 15, 1971, President Richard M. Nixon (who was actually to the left of both Bill/Hillary Clinton and Obama on most issues) ended the Gold Standard for all practical purposes.  First temporarily, then permanently by 1973, and all remaining tenuous links between the dollar and gold were severed completely by 1975.  Some pundits point to this as the main reason why America has gone downhill ever since, and as they say, the rest is history.

But that's not really accurate, though.  You see, the so-called "Gold Standard" hasn't been true gold since 1933, when FDR first suspended it.  And for very good reason:  all of the objective evidence showed that the Gold Standard created artificial scarcity of money, and thus made the Great Depression worse.  Only after it was suspended was the economy able to heal.  And when it was reinstated after WWII with the Bretton Woods System, it contained a massive loophole that basically allowed central banks like the FERAL Reserve to do as they pleased regardless, provided that the system of fixed currency exchange rates remained intact.  And not every country toed the line, inflation happened anyway with the very expensive Vietnam War followed by the exogenous 1973 oil crisis, and eventually by the early 1970s the system had collapsed, so Nixon essentially had to put it down like a rabid dog.

The world indeed changed in 1971, and could have changed for the better.  Without the old Gold Standard to tie its hands, the federal government now had full Monetary Sovereignty as the sole issuer of its own currency, and but for the arcane and archaic rules left over from the Gold Standard, would have been able to fund a better than Nordic style social welfare state with less than Florida or Alaska taxes, simply by creating the money on an ad-hoc basis.  There indeed was increasing appetite among We the People for that which reads like Bernie Sanders' wish list.  Things like Universal Basic Income (UBI), Job Guarantee, single-payer Medicare For All, paid family leave, free or subsidized childcare, free college, and stuff like that were all being considered back then.  And the futurists' almost unanimous predictions of a radically shorter workweek by now could have been realized as well.  

So what happened?  Why aren't we living in a free, post-capitalist utopia (or at least protopia) by now?

Enter the infamous Powell Manifesto in 1971.  From FDR's New Deal up until then, the oligarchs were kept on a very tight leash with things like high taxes on the very rich, regulation of Wall Street and big business in general, social welfare programs, and a strong organized labor (union) movement.  But that Powell Manifesto, and what it advocated, was the beginning of the end for that, which ultimately paved the way for the "Reagan Revolution" of neoliberalism, inspired by Milton Friedman and the Chicago School:  deregulation of Wall Street and big business, tax cuts for the rich, gutting the social safety net, union-busting, offshoring/outsourcing, and stuff like that.  That agenda was ultimately continued by every administration since then to one degree or another.  Inequality exploded and poverty began to worsen again after plummeting for decades, and all manner of social ills related to those increased as well.

Productivity has increased dramatically since 1971, and yet wages have failed to keep up.  Why?  Because the oligarchs took nearly all of the gains since then, that's why.  And their sycophantic lackeys in government have enabled them.

America, and the world, ultimately learned the hard way why the Powell Manifesto was dead wrong, and that letting the oligarchs off of their leash completely was NOT such a good idea after all.  That is, only to repeatedly and thick-headedly forget such a lesson over and over again since then.  The parable of Chesterton's Fence comes to mind.  

Some argue that power doesn't really corrupt, it reveals.  Regardless, though, it is still just as dangerous to concentrate so much wealth and power in the hands of so few people.  A bad person on a leash is still a bad person, of course, but truly they are far more dangerous without the leash.

Also, let's not forget to thank the social conservatives, traditionalists, and reactionaries of both duopoly parties as well.  From the arguably misguided Daniel Patrick Moynihan all the way to Phyllis Schlafly and her demonic ilk, they railed hard against any programs or policies that in their eyes threatened "the family" (code for patriarchy, of course), and they successfully rallied their increasingly disaffected base.  Kinda like the reactionaries today, in fact.  But the fact remains that, both then and now, the reactionaries would not have gotten far had the Democrats not all but abandoned their economic progressivism first.

And as they say, the rest is history.  History may not always repeat itself, but it sure as hell does rhyme!

P.S.  For those who claim that increasing the number of women in the workforce was the cause of this problem of wages lagging behind not only productivity but also the cost of living, keep in mind that nearly doubling the workforce should have resulted in shortening the workweek across the board, as "many hands make light work".  Passing a Dutch-style law that gives workers the right to the same hourly wage rate regardless of number of hours, and the right to choose one's hours, would have largely done the trick without violating the iron laws of supply and demand, as would lowering the the legal threshold for overtime pay from 40 hours/week to 32 or less (it almost was set at 30 in 1938, by the way).  Closing the "exempt" loophole for salaried employees would also be wise.  But the oligarchs had other plans, and as they say, the rest is history....

Thursday, June 20, 2024

Hey FERAL Reserve, Cut Interest Rates NOW!

The FERAL Reserve still has yet to cut interest rates, and despite the Dow Jones recently hitting 40,000, the risk of recession is apparently growing by the day.  And after falling dramatically from its 2022 peak of 9% once the pandemic-induced (more like lockdown-induced) supply chain issues and shortages got resolved, inflation currently remains stubbornly stuck in the neighborhood of 3%.  Because Jerome Powell is too stubborn to cut rates, thus keeping us trapped in a quagmire.  Hello, stagflation!

A recession is probably already baked into the cake at this point, and thus is probably too late to avoid entirely.  Granted.  But the Fed can still at least delay the onset, reduce the length and severity, and promote a speedier recovery IF they would deign to cut rates yesterday.  And even just delaying the onset by a quarter or two would likely postpone it until after the November election, reducing the odds that the Donald would win again. 

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Hey FERAL Reserve: Cut Interest Rates NOW!

The FERAL Reserve still has yet to cut interest rates, and despite the Dow Jones recently hitting 40,000, the risk of recession is apparently growing by the day.  And after falling dramatically from its 2022 peak of 9% once the pandemic-induced (more like lockdown-induced) supply chain issues and shortages got resolved, inflation currently remains stubbornly stuck in the neighborhood of 3%.  Because Jerome Powell is too stubborn to cut rates, thus keeping us trapped in a quagmire.  Hello, stagflation!

A recession is probably already baked into the cake at this point, and thus is probably too late to avoid entirely.  Granted.  But the Fed can still at least delay the onset, reduce the length and severity, and promote a speedier recovery IF they would deign to cut rates yesterday.  And even just delaying the onset by a quarter or two would likely postpone it until after the November election, reducing the odds that the Donald would win again. 

Sunday, March 10, 2024

How To Escape A Stagflationary Quagmire

What happens when the FERAL Reserve uses raising interest rates in an attempt to quash inflation?  You guessed it:  STAGFLATION. That is, a combination of economic stagnation (or even recession, if they keep raising it "until something breaks") and persistently high inflation.  But if the only tool that have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail to them.  And a quagmire thus results when tight monetary policy is kept in place well beyond its (very short) shelf life.

Contrary to Milton Friedman, the godfather of neoliberalism (who literally coined the term "neoliberalism" himself, along with the term "stagflation"), who claimed that "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon", it is more accurately described as being (almost) always and everywhere a supply-side problem of goods and services, as Rodger Malcolm Mitchell notes.  And the only way to cure it is to cure the shortages, which counterintuitively often requires increasing (and better targeting) federal spending to incentivize production of scarce goods and services, especially energy.  There is clearly an extremely strong correlation (almost perfect, in fact) between energy prices (especially oil) and the general price level (CPI) of goods and services overall.  While there is, contrary to popular opinion, very little to no correlation between inflation and federal deficit spending, or even the general money supply itself.  (The general money supply consists of deficit spending of new money into existence plus banks lending new money into existence, though the latter is of course inflationary albeit only due to interest.)

(And let's not forget greedflation as well!)

At best, as a "break glass in case of emergency" measure, raising interest rates, especially to above the inflation rate, has a weak, very short-term benefit on fighting inflation, followed by a longer-term exacerbation and prolonging of inflation that seems to be unrelated but is in fact caused by it.  After all, hiking interest rates is effectively a blunt and regressive tax that increases costs across the board, which are then passed onto the consumer in the form of...higher prices.  And so on.  That is, MORE INFLATION, in a vicious cycle like a yo-yo.  The "cure" is in fact far worse than the disease, like applying leeches to cure anemia, as Mitchell would put it.

The plandemic-induced supply-chain issues have been resolved, and even the global geopolitical issues would should by now have less effect in the domestic oil and gas powerhouse that is the USA.  Oil and gas prices are now down significantly stateside.  The money supply and federal spending have shrank since then as well.  And yet inflation, though much lower than its 9% peak in 2022, remains stubbornly above than 3% today.  Could it be that keeping interest rates well above the current inflation rate is actually not only part of the problem, but now THE problem?

BINGO.  So the FERAL Reserve would be wise to end Quantitative Tightening and cut interest rates yesterday from the current 5.25% to 3%, then to below 3% very shortly thereafter (within days or weeks).  Then when inflation falls, cut it again to below the new inflation rate, and so on. All the way to zero if necessary.  Failing that, the only thing that would end this quagmire is a severe enough recession to kill demand across the board, which will clearly do more harm than good.  History certainly bears that out.

(It explains not only today's quagmire, but also the 1970s and 1980s in the USA and a fortiori in Canada.  And it even at least partially explains the phenomenon of "chronic inflation" in various Latin American countries in the 1990s and beyond.)

Then, Congress must increase, not decrease, federal spending to cure the stagnation part, which is the other half of the stagflation.  Yesterday. 

And while we are at it, we should also phase out the scam known as "fractional reserve banking" (or more accurately, "fractional capital lending") by increasing the reserve requirement for private banks from the current 0% to 10% immediately, as it was before March 15, 2020, then very gradually raising it all the way to 100% over a number of years.  (The only reason to do it gradually is to prevent markets from suddenly seizing up and causing a financial crisis.)  And also either break up, nationalize, or tax heavily any banks that are "too big to fail" as well.

So what are we waiting for?

P.S.  This argument does NOT apply to "creeping inflation" (i.e. consistently below 3%), as that level of inflation is easily controlled and adjusted for, promotes economic growth, and is actually beneficial on balance.  Such low to moderate inflation is far better tolerated than risking even a small amount of deflation (negative inflation), which, at best, is VERY difficult to control and can all too easily become a vicious cycle and downward spiral into a full-blown depression or long-term "stagpression".  In contrast, inflation only becomes net harmful on balance when it greatly exceeds 3%.  Again, history bears this out.

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

How To Defuse The QUADRILLION Dollar Derivatives Bubble

"Beware the Ides of March!"

With all the talk about (so far) isolated bank failures and the potential for a real, wider financial crisis in the near future, no one wants to talk about the real elephant in the room:  the looming QUADRILLION dollar derivatives bubble just waiting to burst.  And if the FERAL Reserve keeps on hiking interest rates in a misguided attempt to fight inflation that is already cooling, it will burst catastrophically, making 2008 and possibly even 1929 look like a walk in the park.

This massive derivatives bubble was decades in the making, resulting from the ever-increasing "financialization" of the economy.  Wall Street has basically been gambling with other people's money, in the world's largest casino, all while getting bailouts.  Privatize the profits, and socialize the losses, basically.

There is still time to defuse this ticking time bomb though:

  1. Cut interest rates, YESTERDAY!  Or at least stop raising them!
  2. End Quantitative Tightening, YESTERDAY!
  3. Pass a financial transaction tax (aka "Wall Street Gaming Tax") of 0.1% on all financial transactions, including stocks, bonds, and especially derivatives.
  4. Repeal the "safe harbor" provision of bankruptcy law, particularly as it applies to derivatives. 
  5. Reinstate the Glass-Steagall Act in full.
  6. Ban the practice of "quote stuffing".
  7. Ban stock buybacks by corporations.
  8. Going forward, ban any and all types of new and exotic derivatives that are not completely transparent. 
  9. No more bailouts OR "bail-ins" of the banks (but of course depositors should still be made whole per the FDIC, with  no apologies to ultra-purist libertarians or paleoconservatives).
  10. Implement "Quantitative Easing For People" (that is, with direct payments to individuals, not banks) as needed.
  11. And last but not least, all banks that are "too big to fail" are really too big to exist, and should thus be either forcibly broken up, or nationalized as public utilities.  YESTERDAY!

The first five items alone, or even the first four, would be enough to defuse it in the near term, while the remaining items would be to clean up the damage and/or prevent it form happening again in the future. 

In the meantime, we all need to brace ourselves for a possible financial crisis and recession in the future.  But don't fall for the idea that we should withdraw all of our money now, as that would literally be a self-fulfilling prophecy.  The FDIC guarantees the first $250,000 per depositor per bank, so unless you have more than that (and didn't put it in multiple banks like you should have), it does not make sense to do so.

And let's not forget the role that the lockdowns played in all of this.  To paper over their predictable consequences, they printed trillions of dollars to do so (which increased demand for goods and services), at the same time that the lockdowns and their fallout constrained supply and snarled supply chains.  The resulting inflation was then belatedly papered over by raising interest rates and Quantitative Tightening, and the resulting whiplash has brought us where we are now with the banks, and making the bubble even more likely to burst.

Of course, things weren't exactly rosy for the financial system before the pandemic either.  Behind the scenes, a financial crisis was already subtly brewing, with the turmoil "repo market" in September 2019 being the first canary in the coal mine.  The FERAL Reserve kept printing more and more money to try to paper it over, but the problem wouldn't go away, even many months later.  They needed to do something BIG, and FAST.  It's almost like the pandemic was actually a PLANDEMIC, a big heist of the century to temporarily shore up the big banks in 2020 and make the rich richer, the poor poorer, and hollow out whatever is left of the middle class.  But hey, that's just a "conspiracy theory", right?

UPDATE:  The FERAL Reserve has raised the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25 percentage points.  Looks like they really, really wanna pop the "Everything Bubble".