How To Achieve (Functional) Zero COVID In TWO WEEKS Without Lockdowns, Masks, Or Vaccines (Updated For Delta)

DISCLAIMER:  The following article references third-party sources and is intended for general information only, and is NOT intended to provide medical advice or otherwise diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease, including (but not limited to) COVID-19.  Consult a qualified physician before beginning any sort of treatment or prophylactic regimen and/or if you know or suspect that you currently have COVID-19.  Anyone who takes or does anything mentioned (or alluded to) in this or any other TSAP article does so entirely at their own risk and liability.  The TSAP thus makes absolutely no warranties, express or implied, and is not liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages resulting from any act or omission on the part of the reader(s) or others. Caveat lector.

See also our previous articles here, here, and here as well.  Also, special thanks to Bill Sardi, Dr. Gareth "Gruff" Davies, Dr. Dmitry Kats, Dr. Mikko Panunio, and Swiss Policy Research, et al. whose research this article draws upon and cites in the links throughout.

(Editor's Note:  The TSAP currently accepts that SARS-CoV-2 is essentially an endemic virus at this point and will be pretty much forever, and will eventually become the new common cold.  We use the term "Zero COVID" only in a very loose, relative, and temporary sense, as true and permanent eradication is no longer possible going forward.  Rather, it's functional Zero COVID.)

It's now nearly September 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic is now a year and a half old, and it looks like it the vaccines are not all they are cracked up to be.  In the USA and other wealthy countries, vaccination rates are already quite high and growing, and when combined with the at least 30% of the American population (estimated as high as 50-70% in North and South Dakota, and of course New York and New Jersey) that is estimated to have already been infected with the virus (often without even realizing it), even before Delta came on the scene, "herd immunity" has most likely already been achieved even when using the naive definition that assumes a homogeneous population.  That does not eradicate the virus, of course, but it does keep it from exploding again in the future.  Well, immunity from natural infection sure does that.  These "leaky" vaccines, at least as "leaky" as flu shots, well, not so much.

Israel has essentially become the world's largest study of the vaccines, particularly Pfizer, and the results have been rather disappointing to say the least.  The same goes for their lockdowns, masks, and NPIs as well.  And if you think boosters are the solution, well, we've got a nice bridge we'd like to sell you. 

The "Zero COVID" movement has clearly been wrong about being able to eradicate the virus using lockdowns, masks, or other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), as that train has clearly left the station long ago.  Even the best vaccines are unlikely to do it completely either.  Rather, what would be needed is 1) a quick silver-bullet cure for existing cases, and/or especially 2) a 100% prophylaxis (or very nearly so) that is readily available to all.  That would be powerful enough reduce the R value to well below 0.5, which seems to be the barrier below which no NPIs, even extreme lockdowns, are able push it for very long (unless done extremely early, along with border closures AND extremely good luck), yet that is the level where we would actually have a chance at beating the virus for good.  Otherwise, it just keeps popping back up, leading to an "epidemic yo-yo".

So what would this secret sauce be? Well, as we noted before in previous articles, Dr. Dmitry Kats knows it:

NIACIN!

That's right, Niacin (nicotinic acid, or Vitamin B3), in high doses would do the trick, practically overnight:

Dr. Kats himself even did an RCT, in fact:

And given how one "generation" of this virus is roughly two weeks, if nearly everyone were to follow this protocol whether they currently have COVID or not, the virus could conceivably be "eradicated" in as little as two weeks! Assuming Dr. Kats is correct about it being a virtually 100% prophylaxis, if done by at least 90% of the population for a mere two weeks, the R value would drop far too low for the virus to have any sort of chance at sustaining itself even in a totally COVID-naive and unvaccinated population.

Don't fear the flush!  It is a feature, not a bug!

Oh, and Dr. Kats knew this since MARCH 2020 and was trying to tell the world, but the ghouls in charge kept on censoring him.  Gee, I wonder why?  

Because their whole diabolical racket would collapse overnight, of course.  DUH!

(And it even works for long-haulers too!  Within a matter of days to no more than a few weeks for the worst cases.  Taking it while still acute, of course, would by definition nip it in the bud even sooner.)

Adding Vitamin D, Vitamin C, Vitamin A, Zinc, Quercetin, Thiamine, Vitamin B12, Magnesium, Selenium, Vitamin K, NAC, and the amino acid Lysine would also help greatly as well, but the real rockstar here is Niacin, as immediate-release nicotinic acid.  As is the latest rising star, Melatonin as well.

For Vitamin D, nearly everyone taking 50,000 units once weekly for two weeks, followed by 50,000 units once every two weeks until week six, would likely be enough alone to greatly reduce death and severe illness rates within two weeks, and can even end the pandemic in as little as six weeks.  Add 500-1000 mg/day of Niacin, plus the other nutrients, and you've got a belt-and-suspenders approach to eradication.

Throw in a little help from Mother Nature, given the seasonality of this virus (which is effectively "out of season" now in the northern temperate zone until well into the fall), and we basically got it made now.

And the best part of all:  we can go 100% back to normal on literally DAY ONE!  Yes, really.

So what are we waiting for?  

(And while we're at it, let these vitamins and minerals be among the very first things we send over to countries like India.  Apparently, 70-90% of Indians are suprisingly Vitamin D deficient to one degree or another--and that was before the pandemic.)

UPDATES:  We have decided after writing this article to give an honorable mention to another promising addition to our arsenal against the virus, namely C60 (Carbon 60, aka Buckminsterfullerene or Buckyball). It is believed to be up to 270 times more potent than Vitamin C in terms of antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, antiviral, and immune-boosting power, and is also considered to be a good detox and anti-aging compound as well.  Worth the old college try.

Also, note that N-acetylcysteine (NAC) is now recommended by Dr. Kats in addition to niacin and the others.  Though it is probably still best to wait at least three hours between them to avoid interference, much like waiting six hours between NAC and resveratrol.  Bill Sardi also recommends it as well, as it seems to work well against COVID and various other ailments as well.  NAC not only raises T-cell levels, but also seems to disrupt the virus' key spike protein, and even more so when combined with the enzyme bromelain (from pineapples, and which is often found in quercetin supplements as an activator as well). No wonder the FDA is actually trying to ban it on essentially the same specious, spurious, and utterly pharisaical grounds they have been trying to ban CBD (cannabidiol) with for years--their Big Pharma masters feel utterly threatened by it.

Another thing Bill Sardi noted recently:  the latest (clearly rigged) study that appeared to cast doubt on Vitamin C has basically been refuted upon closer examination.  Thus, not only should Vitamin C (in high enough doses, and most importantly, taken frequently enough) be back on the menu, it never should have been off in the first place.  

Dr. Kats recommends taking it in a 2:1 ratio of Vitamin C to Niacin.  He also recommends taking both Niacin (nicotinic acid) and Niacinamide (nicotinamide) in equal amounts as well.  And he later added melatonin to his protocol as well, especially for long-haulers.  Apparently, the virus' messing around with tryptophan metabolism depletes not only NAD (which Niacin and Niacinamide are both precursors for), but also endogenous melatonin as well. Such depletion is very bad, but fortunately can be quickly easily corrected with supplements to restore health by jump-starting the body's natural processes.

Back to Vitamin D, there is an interesting theory from 2008 that the variation of the levels of this nutrient may explain not only the apparent Hope-Simpson seasonality of influenza, but also the tendency of some individuals to be what we would now call "superspreaders" as well, with or without symptoms.  The parallels with COVID are quite intriguing, and it seems Vitamin D would reduce not only deaths and serious illnesses, but also transmission as well.

And let's not forget Ivermectin as well, as both treatment and prophylaxis, which has practically become "the new penicillin" and "the drug that cracked COVID" in so many countries.  Budesonide is another successful and underrated early treatment as well.  And for any cases that still manage to become or remain severe or critical, there is always the rest of the MATH+ Protocol to fall back on, per the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance.

Ivermectin's mechanism of action is manifold, and includes binding/blocking the viral spike protein from docking onto/into our cells, as well as blocking a key enzyme needed for viral replication.  Again, one should note that NAC also works by targeting the spike protein as well, and it was recently reported in a German study that dandelion extract can also block the spike protein (at least in vitro.)  Resveratrol (from grapes) also appears to neutralize the spike protein, though again it is best to take NAC and resveratrol at least six hours apart to avoid any mutual antagonism. 

As for prophylactic nasal sprays, some are in development as we speak, though not yet commercially available.  Until then, fortunately there is already one that is likely to block the virus while yielding additional health benefits in the meantime.  It is called Xlear, a natural, drug-free saline nasal spray with xylitol and grapefruit seed extract.  Additionally, there is another one called Betadine, which contains carrageenan (from seaweed), that also apparently has a good antiviral effect as well.

And finally, stop all the funny business with the way cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are counted as well, including the ridiculously high cycle threshold for the PCR testing (should be set no higher than 30, or perhaps even 25, instead of the ridiculous 37-40+ in many places still) along with the routine testing of people without any symptoms in the community.  And no more double standards either:  use the same cycle threshold and definitions for vaccinated and unvaccinated people alike, period.  If you feel you absolutely must test asymptomatic people, go with the rapid test first, and only use PCR as confirmation if positive.  The "casedemic" is a big chunk of the overall pandemic, if not the vast majority of it currently.  Problem solved. 

UPDATE OF UPDATE:  Ivermectin (and even HCQ to an extent) actually works when used properly under the guidance of a qualified physician, but it should go without saying, DO NOT use any sort of veterinary medications, especially ones designed for horses!  Just like you should NOT drink fish tank cleaner either, unless of course you really want to earn a Darwin Award.  Yes, people actually have done both in the USA.  And the fact that anyone would consider resorting to that shows just how terrible our government's pandemic response has been overall.

Additionally, see here for further lifesaving tips from Bill Sardi as well if you think you may have COVID.  He also points out the usefulness of another supplement, beta-glucan which comes from yeast, which helps to train the immune system's T-cells.  And don't forget fisetin (from strawberries) either, a polyphenol similar to quercetin and resveratrol.

And the Swiss Doctor recently updated their early treatment protocol to include the herb artemisia as well as the amino acid arginine.  Yes, you read that last one correctly, and it is quite a jarring plot twist since the conventional wisdom is that arginine is what all viruses need in order to replicate and that lysine (which blocks arginine) is what one should be aiming for while cutting back on arginine.  That, along with zinc, has long been a mainstay for how to treat things like herpes and cold sores, for example.  But even though a previous study shows a clear benefit to lysine in regards to COVID, the latest research now shows an apparent benefit to arginine, go figure.  That seems to be true for both early treatment as well as for hospitalized patients.  Perhaps the two amino acids are like yin and yang in relation to the virus somehow?  Also, the Ivermectin controversy continues to heat up, with the Swiss Doctor starting to sour on relying on it alone.  Mouthwashes and nasal sprays also continue to be recommended too, as they have been for some time.

Don't forget Dr. Zelenko either.  Words of wisdom.

Back to Ivermectin, as David DeGraw notes, it is best when combined with zinc and perhaps doxycycline (an antibiotic) as well for a synergistic effect, as we at the TSAP have long advocated since Karl Denninger first pointed that out back in February 2021.  That may very well be why some studies have shown disappointing results while others have shown glowing results, much like we have seen with HCQ.

And some research even suggests that plain old genuine aspirin (not Tylenol) can cut the risk of COVID death by nearly half.  Be sure to take plenty of Vitamin C with it though, as aspirin can deplete one's Vitamin C.

Finally, to the extent that they even suppress viruses at all, NPIs and antisocial distancing are counterproductive for yet another reason:  the common cold.  Interestingly, due to competition, the common rhinovirus can actually boot out the COVID virus when one gets exposed to both viruses at or around the same time.  So when the former retreats, the latter advances.  Just like influenza appears to have been temporarily suppressed by COVID.

So what are we waiting for?

And So We Learn Just How "Leaky" These Vaccines Really Are

The latest data out of the UK, where nearly all new COVID cases have been the Delta variant (albeit notably recently plummeting despite lifting restrictions), illustrate in real time just how "leaky" these vaccines really are in practice:  they are, on average, as low as 17% effective against preventing infection, while 77% effective against preventing death from COVID.  Granted, these data also include the less effective AstraZeneca/Oxford and J&J vaccines along with the more effective Pfizer and Moderna ones, but data from Israel (essentially the world's largest vaccine study) in which nearly all vaccinations have been Pfizer have also been kinda disappointing as well:  16-75% protection against infection (and waning over time), 80% protection against serious illness, and 90% protection against death.  And what's true for Pfizer would also be true for Moderna as well, given how they are both essentially the same vaccine.

Compare this to the annual flu vaccines:  for protection against infection, it is as high as 60% effective if a good match and as low as 10% effective if a bad match for whatever virus variants happen to be dominant at a given time, averaging 40-50%.  Yet against serious illness and death, it is generally in the 80-90% range.  Thus, the COVID vaccines appear to be about as "leaky" as flu shots, which were also originally claimed to be 70-90% effective when first developed.  And as we clearly know, if you can still catch a virus, you can also spread it as well.

In fact, the real kicker from the latest British data is that there is really no significant difference in viral load (and thus infectiousness) between vaccinated and unvaccinated people who contract the virus, as evidenced in the fact that they had similar cycle threshold (Ct) levels in PCR testing.  In other words, vaccinated people may be at least somewhat less likely to contract the virus in the first place, but when they do happen to catch it, they are likely just as contagious as if they were not vaccinated.

Let that sink in for a moment.  Oops, maybe the technocrats should have thought that one through!

The implications of this data are quite stark and resounding indeed.  We can thus conclude:

• These vaccines are NOT the silver bullet that so many had hoped for, and putting all of our eggs into that one basket (at the expense of early treatment and prophylaxis like Ivermectin, HCQ, and budesonide, along with various vitamins and other nutrients like Vitamin C, Vitamin D, Niacin, Thiamine, Zinc, Selenium, Quercetin, Resveratrol, NAC, and the amino acid Lysine) was the very height of foolishness at best.  Some would even call it mass murder for profit!
• These vaccines are NOT fit for purpose if the goal is to stop all infections, but might still be fit for purpose if the goal is to protect the vulnerable members of society from serious illness and death.  And by now, they all have either 1) been vaccinated or 2) chose not to receive it, making that purpose largely academic now in nearly all rich countries, who thus now have a moral duty to freely share these now-abundant vaccines and their patents with poorer countries for all who want it, as there are of course plenty of vulnerable people there too.  (As they should have done many months ago, but for corporate greed of Big Pharma.)
• These vaccines are mainly for self-protection, while any protection of the community is at best a bonus.  Any argument to the contrary is essentially a specious and spurious argument.
• These vaccines do NOT prevent the evolution or dominance of new virus variants either.  Anyone who still thinks so needs their head examined.
• There is ZERO benefit to public health from forcing or coercing people to get these vaccines, restriction of rights for the unvaccinated, and/or segregating the vaccinated and unvaccinated.  And there is ZERO justification for such.
• If masks actually worked as source control, there would perhaps be some justification for requiring both vaccinated and unvaccinated people alike to wear them in certain high-risk indoor settings when community spread is at "substantial" or "high" levels, per the CDC.
• But since there is still really no hard evidence that surgical or cloth masks actually work meaningfully as source control at the macro level, even after a year and a half of data, that specious justification also collapses as well.  They sure didn't work in 1918, and they don't work now.  Rather, we should instead simply recommend (not require) vulnerable adults to correctly wear N95 (or greater) masks, which are now nearly as available and abundant as toothpicks, in such high-risk settings for self-protection.  (See a pattern here?)
• When the proverbial fat lady finally sings, it would NOT be because of vaccines, but rather primarily from herd immunity via natural infection, along with perhaps attenuation (weakening) of the virus itself.  In other words, just like every other flu or flu-like pandemic and epidemic in recorded history, essentially. 
• The Great Barrington Declaration, along with its sister organization PANDA, were therefore quite right all along, by simply following the hard-won wisdom of the ages, and we were very foolish not to listen.  We clearly have paid, and will still continue to pay, a very heavy price for our collective foolishness and hubris.

Thus, while the TSAP has always opposed forcing or coercing anyone to get these vaccines, our opposition applies a fortiori given how leaky these vaccines have turned out to be.  Not only are slopes slipperier than they appear in terms of civil and human rights, and the long-term safety of these vaccines remains unknown, but there is also an even darker reason as well not to vaccinate everybody and their mother.  If nearly everyone received these leaky vaccines, the virus would continue to spread largely under the radar, and by putting strong selective pressure on the virus while reducing symptoms, it will increase the chance that the virus will select for or mutate into more deadly variants, rather than merely more contagious but less deadly ones as would occur naturally in the absence of mass vaccination.  This is not just theory, it has actually happened before with Marek's disease in chickens, as Karl Denninger has pointed out.  And it is likely the unstated reason why we have historically NOT forced or coerced everyone to get flu shots.  Ironically, for such leaky vaccines, we would actually need a chunk of the population to remain unvaccinated, in order to be a firebreak against such deadly variants.  Hopefully we will NOT foolishly end up pulling the proverbial "black ball from the urn" in that regard and get a truly super-deadly plague that really wipes out the population!

And it should go without saying that all this applies a fortiori to children, who are statistically at less risk from COVID than they are from the flu (as well as car accidents), and are likely at more risk from the vaccines than from the virus (even if we don't know for certain yet).  And unlike the flu, children are NOT superspreaders of COVID either, and are far more likely to catch it from adults than the other way around.  Forcing or coercing these largely untested vaccines on them is basically criminal at this juncture, and the precautionary principle certainly applies here.  If there was ever a hill to die on, this is the one!

For children and young people under 16, and especially under 12 (!), we should consider all of these COVID vaccines to be absolutely contraindicated until proven otherwise.  (Originally we said under 18, but alas that genie is out of the bottle now in the USA.)  And for everyone else, they should be strictly voluntary without even a hint of coercion.

In other words, to the extent that it even is a pandemic anymore, it is quickly becoming a pandemic of the vaccinated.  And all of these mandates and restrictions are worse than useless, from lockdowns to masks to antisocial distancing to now vaccine mandates and passports as well.  All the more reason to end all of these mandates and restrictions, and yesterday is not soon enough!

Leaky vaccines + leaky masks + leaky lockdowns = illusion of control (at best).  Don't fall for it!

UPDATE:  We just came across this, maybe a bit hyperbolic, but still largely correct overall.  We are actually pretty damn lucky that all we got from this was Delta so far.  We know Delta is more contagious and it has a partial escape mutation, which is bad, but at least it's NOT a more deadly variant--yet, that is.  In fact, it actually seems to be LESS deadly than previous strains.  But the next mutation may not leave us so lucky next time.  If this increasingly endemic virus does hopefully continue its long-term trend towards becoming the new common cold (that is, becoming more contagious but less deadly overtime), it would certainly be NO THANKS to these leaky vaccines!

And if, God forbid, we ever do get a "doomsday variant", it would NOT be because we undervaccinated with a good vaccine, but rather because we overvaccinated with a leaky vaccine.

If Masks Really Worked...

Once again, the witty Professor hits another homerun right out of the park here: 

That basically explains the TSAP's evolving position over time.  Originally we were pro-mask since we honestly believed they worked based on some spurious observations in a few East Asian and Eastern European countries, plus a few sketchy studies, and thus they seemed like a safe pathway out of lockdown.  But as time went on, the evidence just kept on mounting against them.  And the past 18 months pretty much answers that question--if they worked, not only would it be so obvious to everyone that no one would have to be forced to wear them, but COVID would have been gone within a few weeks of (near) universal masking as the R value would thus drop well below one and even close to zero, and we would not still be having this debate to this day.

Are you old enough to remember when face masks were initially discouraged by nearly all of the experts as well as "experts", including Dr. Fauci himself?  And then, seemingly out of the blue, the idea caught on that masks not only work, but work so well that if 80% (or is that 90%, or 95%, or 99%?) or whatever % of the population were to wear them, COVID would be practically wiped out, or at the very least 100,000+ lives would be saved?  Right?  And the logical implication being:  the sooner everyone would wear them for just a few weeks, the sooner no one would ever have to wear them again, because COVID would be gone!

Well, that didn't really pan out, did it?  Look, you can cherry-pick the data all you want, but it's pretty self-evident that masks made no practical or statistical difference overall in terms of COVID case, hospitalization, or death rates, even with the strictest mandates and/or very high compliance above 90% or 95%.  While no one can completely rule out modest benefits perhaps in very selected instances, the macro-level data supporting universal masking simply isn't there.  Clearly, after 18 months, if a "signal" still cannot be boosted even with great effort, is was most likely just noise all along.

And all that applies a fortiori to children as well, as we have noted previously.  There is even less evidence in favor, and even stronger arguments against forcing kids to wear them, especially at this juncture.  

Thus, we are re-learning the hard way the painful lessons our ancestors learned in 1918.  There was clearly a reason they stopped wearing masks in 1919, after all.  And no, it wasn't "selfishness" or "anti-science" sentiment, but a rather a good strong dose of reality that turned even their greatest enthusiasts against them in droves.  They simply didn't work.

And now with some "experts" wanting to bring back mask mandates yet again at this stage (!), despite the obvious fact that they would even LESS effective still against the MORE contagious Delta variant, beware.  The following Tweet sums it why that is a very bad idea in both theory and practice:

Mask mandates are in fact the THIN end of a very long and thick wedge of coercion.  Slopes are indeed much, much slipperier than they appear.

QED

AUGUST UPDATE:  Looks like there is even more evidence that masks are basically useless and little more than window dressing overall.  That is true even for adults, let alone for children to whom it applies a fortiori to.  The pro-mask side of what passes for "debate" really can't rely honestly on science anymore, so they increasingly resort to censorship and ad hominem attacks instead.  Ten years from now, if not much sooner, we guarantee that they will regret their stance just like they did not long after 1918.

SEPTEMBER UPDATE:  About that poorly-designed Bangladesh study that the pro-maskers are claiming "proves" once and for all that "masks work!", well, it clearly doesn't prove that at all.  It also says nothing at all about children, schools, or mandates, since neither of these were studied at all by this study.  The best it possibly says is that voluntary use of surgical masks when combined with distancing MIGHT work modestly at the margin in VERY selected instances (even if only a placebo effect as a universal symbol for "keep your distance!"), while cloth masks (i.e. the most commonly used kind) are basically completely useless, and it only goes downhill from there.

Clearly they haven't seen this other study of the results of an actual mask mandate in Bexar County, Texas (back when they had such a mandate last year) that really exposes such mandates for the theater that they really are.  And apparently Germany doesn't exist in their minds either.  Nor does Japan, Israel, Hawaii, Czechia, Spain, France, Peru, Rhode Island, Los Angeles, Miami, or any other place that imposed VERY strict mask mandates and/or otherwise had extremely high mask compliance of 90-95% or greater, and yet not only utterly failed to bend the curve in the right direction, but actually look like they bent it in the WRONG direction!  And remember most of that was pre-Delta, so if you think these things would somehow work on a MORE contagious variant, we got an even bigger bridge we'd like to sell you!

QED

OCTOBER UPDATE:  Comparing neighboring counties in California with different local mask policies (the statewide mask mandate ended in June) but similar vaccination rates shows essentially no correlation between mask mandates and case or hospitalization rates during the Delta wave.  This was noted even in the very mainstream San Francisco Gate, and it is one of the first major tests of such policies in the face of this particular virus variant that is notoriously more contagious than previous ones.  Masks clearly failed the test, unsurprisingly.  In other news, water is wet, and the sun rises in the east and sets in the west.

JANUARY 2022 UPDATE:   Not only has the Bangladesh study fallen even further apart to the point that no one even dares to openly tout it anymore, but apparently even the strongest longitudinal pro-mask longitudinal study also falls apart too upon closer examination.  The latter study, Adjodah et al. (2021), curiously leaves out data after September 2020 (cherry-pick much?) in the first part where the imposition of mask mandates is examined.  And in the second part when lifting mandates is examined in the first quarter of 2021, it finds the expected correlation with "cases" but NOT with hospitalizations and deaths, and that is not easy to explain away.

And while they may not be quite as much in the spotlight right now as the "vaccines" are, the zealots are nonetheless quite busy doing damage control and are upping their game in a desperate attempt to salvage as many fragments of the rapidly collapsing narrative as possible, notably including masks.  To that, we defer to the wisdom of Steve Kirsch and Allan Stevo.  See also the factsheet by Just Facts as well.   If, after thoroughly reading what they all have to say, you are still a "true believer" in masks, you really need to have your head examined!  Most likely, your brain has been starved of oxygen for far too long.

Britannia Waives The Rules (Well, Kinda)

Well, it's official now.  The UK finally went ahead with Freedom Day today, after a month of delay.  Gone are the promises of irreversibility though (i.e. they will not rule out new lockdowns at some point in the future), and some restrictions will still remain though far less than before.  But generally speaking, virtually all mandated restrictions have now become downgraded to mere non-binding recommendations for the most part.  Better late than never, I guess.

One upside of delaying the final lifting of restrictions to July 19 is that it is being done at or very close to the peak of the current virus surge, so when we most likely see case numbers go down rather than up two weeks or so from now, that will thus thoroughly discredit any belief that these restrictions ever did any good.  Had Freedom Day occurred on schedule a month ago on June 23, the case numbers would have been about the same either way regardless of restrictions as we have seen, but people would have no doubt blamed the surge on the lifting of restrictions, then the government would have reimposed restrictions at or close to the peak, after which cases would drop again, and then take credit for the drop, as we have seen many times before.  But this time, restrictions are instead being lifted counter-cyclically (i.e. with opposite timing), which will be the real test of their effectiveness and relevance (or lack thereof).  Egg meet face, lockdown zealots!

UPDATE:  It was announced on literally the same day that, starting in late September,  there will be vaccine passports required to enter nightclubs and possibly even sporting events.  And it should go without saying that we do NOT support such a thing at all.  It is a slippery slope to totalitarianism, plus there is no statistical evidence to back it up.

UPDATE 2:  As of July 27th, it is now clear that cases have begun falling rapidly in the UK.  And "scientists" are apparently "baffled" by this.  They must not remember the famous Farr's Law, or even Hope-Simpson, right?  To the lockdown zealots, good luck getting all that egg off of your faces!

UPDATE 3:  Looks like Belarus, who practically had NO restrictions all along, really didn't do worse than their neighbors overall in terms of excess all-cause mortality.  In case the lockdown zealots didn't have enough egg on their faces already!

AUGUST UPDATE:  There has been some head-scratching about why cases started ticking up again in the UK after over two weeks of sharp declines.  But this is still no "exit wave" related to lifting restrictions, as it took too long to even begin, is not even a distinct new wave, and has still not topped the previous July high.  The best explanation is that the background epidemic has still been rising at the same rate regardless, while in July there was the rapid rise and rapid fall of a sharp and short-term outbreak related to the month-long Euro finals soccer gatherings, mainly in young to middle-aged men.  So the lockdown zealots still have egg on their faces to this day.  How will they live this one down?

Fortunately, as of September 11, Boris has finally relented (and hopefully repented!) on his vaccine passport plans, at least for the time being.

COVID Is Endemic. "Zero COVID" Is A Pipe Dream. Lockdowns And NPIs Are Useless.

The following Tweet really wins the internet:

Pretty much sums it up.  The virus can be defanged and reduced to a nuisance, and indeed it largely has already thanks to herd immunity and attenuation, but it will never be eliminated.  It will continue to ebb and flow to one degree or another indefinitely.  Even smallpox took over 200 years to eradicate after the vaccine.  And it's time we accept that fact and deal with endemic COVID like we do seasonal flu and the common cold.  That is, learn to live with the virus just like all other endemic viruses.  We know now that lockdowns, masks, social distancing, and stuff like that really make no difference to the course of the virus in the long run, and they come with their own set of problems, ultimately doing more harm than good.  And that applies a fortiori to endemic COVID.

That's right, these restrictions are all pain and no gain.  And there is a name for doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

We know how to treat this disease now.  We know what to use for prophylaxis as well.  We know that the virus, while bad, was never the apocalyptic Big One that some had predicted.  We know who the risk groups are, and we have already vaccinated them (plus a good chunk of the general population as well) to a greater extent and faster than we have for any other disease in history.  So anyone who says we still somehow can't go 100% back to normal yesterday because reasons is a LIAR with a hidden or not-so-hidden agenda.  And we thus must completely disregard their bluster.  Yesterday is not soon enough!

UPDATE:  Another Tweet, even more to the point:

This one too, setting the internet on FIRE:

And this one as well, to which we would also add "and early treatment and prophylaxis for all who want it":

UPDATE 2:  See also here and here for some good articles from The Daily Sceptic about the nuances of herd immunity.  And yes, it is very nuanced indeed.

UPDATE 3:  Yet another study finds lockdowns to be worse than useless.  Again.  Sooner or later, everyone (or at least those with anything approaching a conscience) will collectively regret how we panicked and knee-jerkedly threw the wisdom of the ages out the window like so much garbage back in March 2020.  Even the most rabid Zero COVID zealots can only keep doubling down so long to postpone, and ultimately amplify, the inevitable agony of regret.

Britannia Waives The Rules! NOT

It was announced today that the UK's final reopening step in removing the last remaining restrictions, scheduled for June 21st, will most likely be delayed for "up to" (read: at least) another four weeks.  The latest excuse is that the supposedly much worse Indian Delta variant of the virus is spreading like wildfire in the UK.  Yes, "cases" (i.e. positive tests) are up per the official numbers, but I think we have all seen this movie before, and it's never ended well:

Come on, Boris, stop being such a wee-willy wanker and grow a pair already!  What happened to that fun-loving libertarian you once were just 15 months ago?  And ask yourself, if the Delta variant is so much more contagious, why isn't it spreading like wildfire in the many other countries in which it has been detected for as long as the UK, including, but not limited to, the USA?  Don't think too hard, though--you don't wanna fry the few brain cells you still have left, buddy.

(OK, granted there is Nepal, but they are an outlier.)

Look, practically all of the vulnerable members of society are either 1) fully vaccinated or 2) chose not to get the vaccine.  In fact, the UK has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, as does the USA (who the UK just caught up to recently).  Fully 80% of British adults (70% in Scotland) have measurable levels of antibodies, from vaccination, previous infections, or both.  If that is not herd immunity, I really don't know what is.  Besides, we know the virus is sharply seasonal, and it is now out of season.  So the odds of the NHS being overwhelmed this summer are practically zero.  Hospitalizations are still largely flat despite the rise in "cases", and though up slightly in some places they are are still nowhere near the first or second wave levels.  And deaths are still not budging.  Thus, COVID-19 has been reduced to a mere nuisance, and mass testing has created a "casedemic".

Even if there were no vaccines, or for those for whom the vaccine may be a dud, we nonetheless have treatments that work (Ivermectin, Budesonide, etc.).  If only the government would allow them, of course.

(Shhhh!  Don't be too loud about Niacin and NAC!  Now THAT would be the ultimate game-changer!  And Vitamin C, D, zinc, and an ionophore like Quercetin.)

We know now that lockdowns and NPIs are worse than useless, and at best you will only push the virus into the fall and winter where when know it is far worse.  Thus, a "safe spread summer" is just what the doctor ordered, even if the vaccines were somehow useless against the new variants (which is not true).  And masks?  Well, maybe chain-link fences are the best defense against mosquitoes, right?  Riiiiight. 

Meanwhile, the USA is largely full steam ahead with reopening and unmasking, many states already did months ago, and we are doing fine over here.  Cases, deaths, and hospitalizations are still falling.  Perhaps us "septic tanks" (Yanks) really do have the right idea now after all?  I think we all know the answer.

So how about it, Boris? Time to send the SAGE bedwetters packing and open up 100% yesterday!

UPDATE:  UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced officially that he will be delaying the final reopening step by "four crucial weeks" until July 19th, while leaving open the possibility of delaying it even longer still in the event of a "far more dangerous variant".  He dangles the carrot of it possibly being shortened to only a two week delay until July 5th (riiiiight!), and also gives the consolation of the 30 person cap on weddings being lifted on June 21st.  But I really wouldn't bet on a full lifting of restrictions anytime soon in Britain, unless of course there are massive and relentless protests along with some very conspicuous civil disobedience there no later than the next week or two.  But of course, under the current regime, that would technically be illegal (wink wink).

Oh, and by the way, if you really read between the lines you will see that COVID is actually becoming......milder.  That is, it is becoming more cold-like in terms of symptoms and significantly less likely to result in hospitalization or death compared to older strains.  And yes, that is the supposedly much worse Delta variant we are talking about, that is now dominant in the UK and will likely eventually become dominant worldwide.  As for being somewhat more contagious, that is most likely true, but remember it only needs to be very slightly more contagious to edge out the competition and become dominant, and estimates of it being 60% more contagious than the Alpha strain are most likely grossly exaggerated.  In a nutshell, the pandemic is over, attenuation of the virus is occurring along with herd immunity, and endemic COVID is now essentially becoming the new common cold in more and more places, following in the footsteps of the four other endemic common-cold coronaviruses (at least one of which, OC43, most likely started out as a pandemic as well).  The fact that this overall good news is being ignored by the mainstream media and government really speaks volumes as to their real agenda of fearmongering, power, and control.  Meanwhile, the USA is already several steps ahead of the UK on the road to true normalcy, and in practice is mostly already there now.

Indeed, it seems that the Delta variant's symptoms for most people are practically identical to hay fever and the common cold, with perhaps a mild hangover thrown in for good measure.  That is, headache, sore throat, runny nose, and/or generally feeling a little bit "off" are reportedly far more common than the classic fever, cough, loss of smell/taste, or shortness of breath that are common with previous strains of the virus.

UPDATE 2:  On June 26th, the March For Freedom had an excellent turnout.  And with Matt Hancock resigning in disgrace for his scandalous hypocrisy in flouting his own rules, thus following in the footsteps of the disgraced Neil "Professor Pantsdown" Ferguson, the regime does not seem to be winning anymore. 

UPDATE 3:  Looks like Delta is already dominant in much of the USA as of July 1, yet overall cases are still not exploding, deaths continue to fall, and hospitalizations remain quite low.  Soon it will be dominant worldwide (if it isn't already), but since the best evidence suggests that it is LESS deadly/nasty than previous strains, that is again actually a blessing in disguise on balance.  Behold, the soon-to-be new common cold.  And you know that Delta is already old news now, as the fearmongers are already talking about the Peruvian Lambda variant now.

Our Very Last Chance To Let America Be America Again, For Real This Time

It is Memorial Day Weekend, the unofficial start to summer, and COVID-19 is on the run pretty much everywhere now.  Cases and deaths are plummeting left and right.  All of the most vulnerable members of the American population are either a) fully vaccinated or b) were offered the vaccine but chose not to get it, more than half of the entire population has had at least one vaccine dose, and half of all US adults are now fully vaccinated (i.e. more than two weeks after the final dose).  In fact, in ten states and counting, at least 70% of adults (often considered the "herd immunity" threshold in a naive population, ignoring the plentiful natural exposure of at least 30% of Americans already and as much as 50-70% in some states) are now fully vaccinated.  And furthermore, we also know now how best to treat this disease as well, even before we had the vaccines.

Is it technically even a pandemic anymore?  Depending on one's definition, it may not be.

All states except Hawaii have at least eased (or set a date for easing) their mask mandates, and many have dispensed with them altogether, while nearly all states have reopened their economies and ended most restrictions.  The CDC has recently eased recommendations as well.  Things are thus largely moving in the right direction for the most part.

Now is thus the time, in fact LONG past time, to end ALL restrictions and go 100% back to normal.  And not just for the vaccinated, but for everyone, period.  For children as well, in fact a fortiori for them.  Masks and social distancing are NOT healthy for children, and fortunately they were generally never at much risk from COVID to begin with.  Ignore the bluster from the zealots that want to make these restrictions permanent.  No more lockdowns, mask mandates, vaccine passports, or anything like that ever again.

(Another myth bites the dust as well:  Not only are kids at a vanishingly low risk of dying or being hospitalized from COVID, they are apparently also highly unlikely to suffer from Long COVID either.  Turns out, many if not most of the supposed cases of children under 16 suffering from this vaguely-defined protracted syndrome are likely not even related to the virus at all, given the lack of difference between seronegative and seropositive children in experiencing it.  One could thus argue that "lockdown disease" from a toxic mix of prolonged anxiety, isolation, and vitamin deprivation is probably the most parsimonious explanation for most of these cases in both children and adults, even in many cases when the virus is a contributing factor as well.  Post-viral syndromes are of course very real, but are generally far more likely to follow severe infections rather than mild ones, and the vast majority of COVID infections are quite mild, especially in children.)

And given how we know that COVID is a very seasonal virus, it would in fact behoove us to allow a "safe spread summer" (i.e. a truly normal summer, kinda like we had in the summer of 1969 despite being during the nasty Hong Kong Flu pandemic, even including Woodstock and literally putting a man on the moon, imagine that!) to build up our immune systems before the fall and winter in case the virus comes roaring back again.  Had we done that last summer, we would have had a far less nasty second wave than we did (and third wave in some places as well).  And the new variants of the virus if anything make the case for doing so even stronger in fact.

This summer is our LAST CHANCE we have to end the New Abnormal for good and fully restore the civil rights and liberties that we feared were lost forever.  If we successfully demand to have a normal summer and resist any attempt to continue or reimpose these authoritarian restrictions in the fall, then the forces of liberty will have won.  But if we fail to, well, we only need to look at Germany and the UK to get a glimpse of our dark future going forward.  Thus, we must demand a complete return to true normal yesterday, settle for nothing less, and by Labor Day (a day followed by fully open, in-person, un-masked, un-distanced schools starting the very next day) at the latest we must fully resolve to completely lay waste to all that remains of 2020 forever, God willing.

Let America Be America Again.  For real this time!  And may America finally be reborn on the Fourth of July.  So what are we waiting for?

And So We Finally Learn Just How Effective Mask Mandates Really Are

Spoiler alert: not very.  That is the conclusion of one of the most recent studies, that found--surprise!--no robust correlation between COVID case growth rates and either mask mandates or even mask usage rates across the USA.  This dovetails rather nicely with that iconoclastic Danish study from last year, plus literally decades worth of research as well.  Look, you can cherry-pick the data all you like to get the results you want, as some previous studies have, but dare to include just enough inconvenient data and the whole house of cards collapses faster than you can say, "A-HA!  So THAT'S why Americans universally stopped wearing these things in the spring of 1919, returned to normal, and didn't look back for over 100 years!"

And people will probably keep debating the mask question 100 years from now as well, given how it is one of the oldest debates in public health history.  Granted, we do not discount that masks, at least higher quality ones, may very well be at least marginally effective in selected instances.  But for the general population across the board, in the realest of real-world settings?  Well, if you really believe that, we've got a nice bridge we'd like to sell you.

(And an even bigger bridge to sell those who believe masks were what caused the flu to practically disappear for over a year now.  Hey, try to explain how it also practically disappeared in Florida, Georgia, South Dakota, and Sweden then. Go on.)

It's essentially a classic macro-micro problem, where just because something may work at the micro level, it does NOT follow that it will also work at the macro level.  The same goes for quarantines, the macro level equivalent of which being indiscriminate, population-wide lockdowns (instead of just the sick).  Some things simply don't scale very well at all!

Voluntary mask wearing may simply be a classic placebo, where the wearers may simply be more cautious in general, while forced/coerced mask wearing may lead the wearers to be less cautious in general than they otherwise would, a phenomenon that has also been observed with mandatory seatbelt laws.  (To be fair, unlike mask mandates, seatbelt laws do still seem to have a net lifesaving effect regardless, albeit to the chagrin of pedestrians and cyclists.)

Honestly, if they did work at the macro level, then in any place with a broad mask mandate like most states and localities had (or at least mask usage rates above 80%, like practically all of the USA eventually was for a while), the pandemic would have been over within two weeks, three weeks tops.  And then masks would have thus made themselves obsolete.  Yes, some otherwise highly intelligent and knowledgeable mask advocates actually predicted (over a year ago, no less) that would happen, which in turn influenced even the TSAP's own formerly pro-mask mandate position as an alternative to lockdowns at the time (a position which we now deeply regret).  Yet alas, that clearly did NOT happen--for obvious reasons.  

And so, once the proper statistical controls (timing, seasonality, previous exposure, etc.) are employed, the statistical mirage of spurious correlation is thus debunked, deboned, sliced, diced, julienned, and its remains have been completely laid waste.

Game. Set. Match.

The TSAP actually supported mask mandates (albeit with nuance) from April/May up until about August 2020, half-supported them until December, and since then we have generally opposed them and currently we support repealing them in their entirety, as was done in 1919 nationwide and has already been done in most states (including those who never had such mandates at all) as of late May 2021.  That includes schools too, by the way, especially for students, as even the CDC now subtly admits that school mask mandates for students did NOT show any statistically significant benefit no matter how much they tried to torture the data.  (Apparently, the only thing that robustly and reliably works in schools is to ventilate, ventilate, ventilate, which actually makes sense for what we know now is in fact a predominantly airborne virus.)  Nor do we support discrimination against anyone by vaccination status either.

Look, if YOU personally want to keep wearing a mask, fine, more power to you.  Ditto if you want to avoid people who don't wear them, fine, keep your distance then.  Problem solved.  But currently we see no valid or compelling reason to continue to force people to wear them, in public or private.  Since when did this become such a controversial position to take?

From the looks of it at face value, Fauci may have indeed been largely right the first time when he initially pooh-poohed masks and actually told us not to touch our faces, and we're certainly old enough to remember that.  And it's not like mask mandates have actually led to faster reopenings or averted lockdowns either.  So whatever merits there are to individual mask wearing in whatever circumstances, there is no valid reason for any government to force them on anyone (outside of a healthcare setting), period, and it should be left to individuals and businesses to decide for themselves. 

By the same token, it looks like the WHO was also right the first time in that regard as well.  Even as recently as July 2020, believe it or not.

Kinda like when they let it slip in June 2020 that truly asymptomatic spread, while possible, is a lot rarer than most people think, a mere 0.7% even in that very closest and riskiest setting of all, within households.  Only to be forced to walk it back the very next day, of course.  And outdoor spread?  A vanishingly low 0.1% of cases.  And fomites (surfaces)?  An even lower still < 0.01%, and probably even less than that if people wash their hands and don't touch their faces or keep fiddling with their masks!  All for a disease with an infection fatality rate within the ballpark of a nasty flu season for most people, and that we know now how to treat effectively.  This is what the actual science says.  And it utterly demolishes the need for lockdowns, closures, mask mandates, or any other New Abnormal restrictions at this juncture, period.

See also here as well for a good explanation of the crucial difference between large droplets (that masks do seem to work for) and much smaller aerosols (which basically go right through and/or around essentially ALL masks other than properly fit-tested N95s).  It is the latter that seem to be a bigger driver of transmission, unfortunately, and worse, since they tend to penetrate deeper into the lungs, they also tend to make you sicker too.  Thus, we should not be at all surprised by the null effects of universal community masking at the macro level.  In fact, even the "variolation" theory is basically turned on its head as well--larger droplets would probably provide better "variolation" than aerosols would, ironically.

As for children, see here for a good and thorough debunking of the notion that forcing them to wear masks in school and elsewhere is somehow necessary, effective, or benign.  Even the WHO says that children under 5 years of age should not wear masks at all, children ages 6-11 should only wear them in certain circumstances, and children of any age with various kinds of disabilities or health conditions should not be required to wear them at all.  The CDC, on the other hand, apparently prefers to steamroll over anything even remotely resembling nuance in that regard.

See also here as well for an excellent article about how continued universal masking may even be harmful in the long run for all ages.  All the more reason NOT to make this practice permanent in any sense, and to phase it out completely in nearly all circumstances. We ignore actual science at our peril.

UPDATE:  The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) announced that they recommend that children ages 2-11 (!) continue to wear masks and socially distance until they are fully vaccinated (despite the fact that no COVID vaccine has been authorized yet for children under the age of 12, and even if there were, safety concerns would still remain due to the relative lack of clinical trial data for that age group).  All for a disease that is less deadly than the flu for kids, and about as deadly as chickenpox (the reader may even be old enough to remember chickenpox parties for kids up until the early 1990s before that vaccine came out), and furthermore that they rarely transmit to adults (a majority of whom are anyway either fully vaccinated or very soon to be).  Seriously?  Talk about some grade-A gaslighting and triangulation there, that would make even the most malignant narcissistic abuser blush!  We will all one day look back on this dark time in history with utter horror and disbelief, and alas today's youngest generation may never fully recover.  To the AAP, we have one question for you:  how does it feel to be on the wrong side of history?  Because we really wouldn't know anything about that.

And the CDC's much-hyped, supposed "increase" in teen hospitalizations is based on outdated data, and many of those are likely incidental positives when hospitalized for non-COVID reasons, particularly psychiatric admissions that have increased due to the lockdown-induced mental health crisis that is has been hitting young people particularly hard.

And finally, the Earth will thank us as well when we finally do belatedy ditch these (mostly plastic) masks for good, but alas, the damage to the oceans is done.

JUNE UPDATE:  One nuance that gets glossed over by both pro-mask and anti-mask folks is the issue of presymptomatic transmission, as the Swiss Doctor notes.  While truly asymptomatic transmission is indeed quite rare, presymptomatic transmission may actually be quite common, as is the case with influenza (albeit with COVID having a more gradual onset of symptoms than influenza).  It is a brief window of usually 1-2 days, though sometimes up to 4 days between peak viral load and (known) symptom onset.  Regardless though, masks still don't work for aerosol transmission, which would be especially predominant in such instances given the lack of large sneezing and coughing droplets.  The only thing that really works for aerosols is good ventilation, as well as perhaps air filters and UV light.  Masks are to aerosol viruses as chain-link fences are to mosquitoes.

And lest you still credit masks with the apparently success of East Asian countries in keeping death rates so low, a better explanation would be the near-absence of obesity in these countries, along with perhaps previous exposure to other related coronaviruses.  Especially judging from these countries' performance during past flu seasons, during which masks seemed to make no difference. 

People keep citing a North Carolina school study as "proof" that "masks work!", but since that study lacked a mask-optional school control group for comparison (i.e. all schools in the study mandated masks for everyone ages 5 and older), it says literally NOTHING about the effectiveness of masks.

And another school study looking at Florida, New York, and Massachusetts found no correlation between school mask mandates and COVID case rates for students OR staff after adjusting for confounders.  Not only that, but greater in-person student density was actually associated with fewer COVID cases, not more.  This dovetails with the cross-sectional CDC study that looked at Georgia schools between November 16, 2020 and December 11, 2020 and found no statistically significant effect of student mask mandates.  And it also strongly implies that the latter study's apparent correlation between staff mask mandates and fewer cases was most likely spurious and driven by selection bias, endogeneity, and/or confounding from community case rates, especially since the former study looked a much longer time period than the latter one, and also controlled for community case rates.  Thus, this new study should really be the final nail in the coffin in terms of mask mandates, particularly for schools.  Game. Set. Match.

And see here and here as well.

AUGUST UPDATE:  Looks like there is even more evidence that masks are basically useless and little more than window dressing overall.  That is true even for adults, let alone for children to whom it applies a fortiori to.  The pro-mask side of what passes for "debate" really can't rely honestly on science anymore, so they increasingly resort to censorship and ad hominem attacks instead.  Ten years from now, if not much sooner, we guarantee that they will regret their stance just like they did not long after 1918.

SEPTEMBER UPDATE:  About that poorly-designed Bangladesh study that the pro-maskers are claiming "proves" once and for all that "masks work!", well, it clearly doesn't prove that at all.  It also says nothing at all about children, schools, or mandates, since neither of these were studied at all by this study.  The best it possibly says is that voluntary use of surgical masks when combined with distancing MIGHT work modestly at the margin in VERY selected instances (even if only a placebo effect as a universal symbol for "keep your distance!"), while cloth masks (i.e. the most commonly used kind) are basically completely useless, and it only goes downhill from there.