Ruh Roh. The Yield Curve Just Inverted

Yesterday, on March 22, 2019, the yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007.  Specifically, the spread between the 3-month Treasury and the 10-year Treasury has flattened and then flipped:  short-term yields are now higher than long-term yields, the reverse of what is normally the case.  It is a leading indicator of a coming recession, since it basically means that investors are becoming so bearish that they would rather lock in current interest rates as they expect rates to drop significantly in the near future rather than continue rising further.  And since it typically precedes the onset of a recession by 6 to 18 months on average, it means that the odds of a 2019 or 2020 recession are looking very, very likely.

And while the stock market seemed to be rebounding from the December mini-crash of 2018, it now seems to be once again teetering on the edge of the Big One, the coming Crash of 2019.  And with Trump's tariffs and resulting trade war really starting to bite hard recently, leading to GM and Ford both announcing layoffs, and American soybean farmers getting creamed, things really don't look so hot right now.

In Bernie we TRUST, in Trump we RUST.  Tired of "winning" yet?  Hey, American Brexit, now do you finally Regrexit?