Time To "86" The Federal Tax Code

The federal tax code has become increasingly Byzantine in its complexity, and the very rich easily get away with paying next to nothing due to the loopholes that they themselves write into the code.  The TSAP believes it is best to overhaul it entirely. 

That's why any serious tax reform idea needs to begin with, "The Internal Revenue Code of 1986 is hereby repealed".  And then replace it with something much, much simpler and more efficient:

The Universal Exchange Tax (UET) is one potential thing to replace it with.  A tax of typically 0.1% or less on (practically) all electronic transactions, and only on the destination or deposit side.

Another similar idea is the Automated Payment Transaction Tax (APT), from Dr. Edgar Feige.  This one taxes both sides of each transaction, and posit a higher rate than the UET due to less optimistic assumptions about the tax base, among other subtle differences.

Another similar idea is the Automated Deposit Tax (ADT, aka the "Tiny Tax"), from Dr. William J. Hermann, Jr.  Formerly one of the largest supporters of the APT above, he later came up with an even simpler idea, that only taxes the deposits into financial institutions.  Given a smaller base, as "within account" transactions would not be taxed, the revenue neutral rate is expected to be around 1% to replace all federal taxes and 1.2% to replace all federal, state and local taxes.  A more optimistic assumption would of course put the tax base much higher, and thus put the tax rate even lower still.

Keep in mind that, unlike the UET and APT, the ADT (Tiny Tax) would be unlikely to result in any significant shrinkage of the theoretical tax base in practice, since most if not all of the predicted shrinkage in the former, would result from fewer high-frequency stock, bond, and derivative trades within accounts (which are far more sensitive to that).  That is, what the latter lacks somewhat in the relative size of the tax base, it largely or entirely makes up for in relative lack of shrinkage. And switching to any of the three of course removes all of the compliance costs, distortions, finagling, and deadweight losses from the status quo, resulting in significant savings right there.

All of the above are the logical conclusion of the "lowest possible rate on the broadest possible base" with the latter idea adding "with the least complexity" as well.  All of these taxes are also surprisingly progressive, since the rich transact disproportionately more money than the non-rich, thus they pay disproportionately more in practice.  And yet it is not a particularly heavy burden on anyone, rich, poor, or anyone in between for that matter.  In fact, it's equivalent to everyone getting a raise, we can still afford to have a robust social safety net (if not the entire progressive wish list), AND America still becomes a global tax haven nonetheless.

It's a win-win-win situation for everyone but the oligarchs at the top that benefit from the status quo at the expense of the rest of us, in other words.

Some plans aim for revenue neutrality, while others aim for a balanced budget or even a surplus.  But what if there was a way to make the concerns about balanced budgets completely obsolete and irrelevant?

PAGING DR. FIRESTONE!

Enter Dr. Joseph M. Firestone, a proponent of one flavor of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).  He argues that Congress can simply pay off the entire fictitious "National Debt" in one fell swoop and simply create the money ad hoc to pay all of its expenses, without needing to raise revenue at all.  He calls it "Overt Congressional Financing" (OCF), and can be done by a simple Act of Congress and/or the Treasury minting a high value platinum coin (i.e. valued in the trillions).  As does Rodger Malcolm Mitchell (of Monetary Sovereignty fame) and Ellen Brown as well.

That's not to say that taxes are completely useless.  There in fact are a number of reasons for them.  They 1) create demand for the currency, 2) help control inflation to some extent as an automatic stabilizer, and 3) control the economy to one degree or another to encourage and discourage various things (also known as social engineering).  And they can also be used for less than lofty motives as well to rig the game for the oligarchy, of course.  But for a government that can issue it's own currency, like our own federal government (but unlike our state and local governments), simply raising revenue is NOT of them.

So how do we retain the desirable features of taxes without the drawbacks?  Pigouvian taxes, such as vice taxes and eco taxes, for example, can then be added (back) in after repealing the old outmoded tax code.  Ditto for perhaps a limited "rich-only" or "very rich-only" individual income tax like the sort that prevailed prior to World War II, or alternatively an excise tax on executive compensation (like Bernie Sanders advocates) exceeding a maximum pay ratio between executives and their average or lowest-paid employees, in order to reduce the yawning chasm of inequality these days.  And perhaps a "too big to fail" tax on any bank or corporation that is so large and interconnected that it poses the externalities of systemic risk as well.

So what are we waiting for?

UPDATE:  One mild criticism right off the bat is that jettisoning the income tax entirely would also inherently jettison the proven poverty-fighting Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit as well.  The answer?  Until we implement a Universal Basic Income (UBI), we can and should implement a "Reverse Payroll Tax" that tops up wages by matching wages in each paycheck dollar for dollar up to a point (say, the first $200 per week), which is actually much simpler than the EITC and CTC.  As for the criticism that tax-free municipal bonds will lose their luster in terms of investment incentives, and municipalities will suffer as a result, the Monetarily Sovereign federal government can simply provide more federal aid to municipalities so they don't have to borrow at high interest rates.  And regardless of what the feds do, municipalities and states can also set up their own public banks (like the famous Bank of North Dakota) as well and borrow money interest-free, of course.

UPDATE 2:  Even if the Tiny Tax is implemented, there is nothing to prohibit maintaining (and increasing and harmonizing) the SEC Fee on Wall Street transactions, if one wishes to implement a sort of "gaming tax" on speculation as well.  

Case Closed: Masks STILL Don't Work

(This is an updated repost of an article from February 2023, as we thought the reader might need a reminder now in light of current events involving mask zealots, so far only in select pockets.  The calendar says 2024, but these zealots make us feel like we are in a 2020-2021 time warp or something!)

We will say it louder, for the people in the back.

A major new gold standard Cochrane review study (in January 2023) has come to a conclusion that only the utterly brainwashed would consider at all shocking at this point:  Masks don't really work to stop the spread of respiratory viruses.  Never did, and never will.  Not even the vaunted N95.  Handwashing is likely modestly effective, but masks are basically a joke overall, and not a very funny one either.

This concurs with over a century of research that came out overwhelmingly in support of the anti-mask side of the debate.  In fact, by 1919 it was practically settled science that these devices aren't anywhere near what they were cracked up to be, a consensus which prevailed until March 2020.  Then the pandemic narrative took over and turned the science upside down for nearly three years straight, while any studies were to the contrary were systematically file-drawered for far longer than those supporting the narrative.  In fact, the original version of the 2023 Cochrane review was actually written in the spring of 2020, and came to the same conclusion, but was ignored.  And now the entire pandemic narrative has collapsed faster than formerly healthy young athletes on the field after being jabbed.

We recently noted how the ever-insightful Ian Miller has so thoroughly debunked, deboned, sliced, diced, and julienned the pro-mask arguments, and laid waste to their utterly scorched remains for good.  And be sure check out the excellent Fargo study from Josh Stevenson et al. about masks for kids as well, likely the very best one yet, with the very least biases or confounding.  Spoiler alert:  masks STILL don't work.  Not for kids, not for adults, not for no one.

Oh, and let's not forget the dreaded Foegen Effect as well.  And other harms as well, see here.  That literally makes masks WORSE than useless.  Jettison them!

To the anti-mask side:  you are now hereby overwhelmingly vindicated, and really always have been in fact.  You have literally passed the biggest functional IQ test in all of modern history.  To the pro-mask side:  we are still waiting for you to apologize.  Yesterday.  And to those who switched jerseys anytime after February 2022 (that is, only when it became socially acceptable to do so), you are fooling no one.

QED

UPDATE:  Some may pedantically point out that "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence", therefore "no one can really say" that masks don't work.  True, you cannot (definitively) prove a negative.  But given the totality of the research and real-world evidence, it would be slothful induction (if not magical thinking as well) to still believe that masks have any sort of net benefit at all. If they did have a net benefit, it would have been self-evident long ago.  We need to see the forest for the trees.

"But...but...they worked in Japan!" See here for a good debunking of that myth as well.

And in case the pro-masker zealots pathetically trot out the fatally flawed Boston school mask study in desperation, rest assured that Ian Miller has successfully laid waste to that one as well.  And so has the ever-insightful Emily Burns, as well as Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, one of the authors of the Fargo study. 

Oh, and another study found that masks in HOSPITALS make no difference to infection rates.  Thus, if they don't even work in hospitals with all of their universal multilayered precautionary measures, they simply don't work at all, period.

In any case, regardless of whatever utilitarian arguments one likes to use, it was never actually ethical to force masks on anyone against their will, period, even if there had turned out to be some sort of a modest but significant collective benefit (which there wasn't).  Only a full-blown Machiavellian or a public health technocrat (same difference) could argue otherwise. 

UPDATE 2:  A re-analysis of the infamous Boston mask study has now thoroughly debunked it.

UPDATE 3:  For more on the harms of masks, see here.

UPDATE 4:  And another school masking study can be found here as well, co-authored by the aforementioned Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg.  Again, surprise surprise, masks STILL don't work.  Period. 

UPDATE 5:  And that's before we get into the toxins that can be emitted from some types of masks, including the vaunted N95.

UPDATE 6:  Pushback works.  Contrary to Carl Jung's famous saying, what you resist does NOT persist, as long as you resist enough.  DO NOT COMPLY!

UPDATE 7:  Looks like masks are even more harmful than we thought, especially for children. 

UPDATE 8:  Looks like masks most likely INCREASE the risk of infection.  Oops!  Maybe the "public health" establishment should have actually thought that one through before forcing them on We the People. 

UPDATE 9:  Looks like St. Louis reversed their mask mandate for city employees within a matter of HOURS.  Again, pushback works.  What you resist does NOT persist.  (Apologies to Carl Jung.)

UPDATE 10:  Again, even more evidence that masks are worse than useless.  Especially for children. 

And finally, see here about the ultimate success of one of the most anti-mask (and anti-lockdown) countries in the world, Sweden.  As a result, we think "Stockholm Syndrome" should really be called "Melbourne Syndrome", because #SwedenGotItRight.

(Mic drop)

Hey FERAL Reserve, Cut Interest Rates NOW!

Inflation is now effectively beaten.  Not only has it cooled significantly, but now the specter of deflation has recently been raised, and has already been seen in the prices of durable goods falling a bit recently.  Oil is also down as well, which has of course led to a recent drop in gasoline prices.  And this is in spite of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which otherwise would have raised oil prices, ceteris paribus, due to the resulting geopolitical instability and uncertainty. 

Deflation may sound like a good thing, especially after such a high inflationary episode, but if it persists, it can turn into a downward economic spiral that is far worse than inflation (think the Great Depression, or Japan's three decades of rolling deflation from the early 1990s until very recently).  It also amplifies the sting of debt, and with debt of all kinds at such stratospheric levels today, America needs that like a hole in the head.  Once such a spiral begins and sets in, it is very, very difficult to extricate from.  Not even QE can seem to end it (though giving such "helicopter money" directly to We the People might work). And deflation is, at best, very difficult to control.

So the FERAL Reserve really needs to cut interest significantly, and pause QT, yesterday, before they create a problem that is practically impossible to dislodge.  And if that doesn't work, prepare to not only restart QE, but also implement "QE for the people" as well. say you weren't warned.

UPDATE:  Looks like the Fed decided to stop hiking interest rates, and signaled three interest rate cuts next year in 2024.  So now is the best time to put your money in a CD account to lock in the current rates.

We Reaffirm Our Zero-Tolerance Policy Against Antisemitism (And All Other Forms Of Racism and Bigotry Too)

In the wake of the ongoing Israel-Gaza war following the brutal and barbaric terrorist attack by Hamas against Israel, there has been an outpouring of antisemitism lately from both left and right.  Some of it is ostensibly at least tangentially related to current events, while some of it is simply a "mask off" moment for longstanding hatred against Jews that has always been there but now has come to the surface.  Either way, it is completely unacceptable.  Regardless of how one may feel about current events, there is NO excuse for that sort of bigotry.  And the silence is deafening among those who should know better than to be silent in the face of it as well.

As we have said in the past, we the TSAP hereby vow to NEVER make that sort of mistake by either omission or commission, and hereby condemn antisemitism in the very strongest of terms, just as strongly as we do racism in general.  And the reader is put on notice that we will NEVER tolerate any overt or covert antisemitism in our party, period, no matter how much one tries (in vain, by definition) to dress it up in any sort of leftist or social justice rhetoric.  Bigotry by any other name still stinks.

Therefore, using any of the following red flag words, phrases, or references will get your comments promptly deleted, and severe and/or repeat offenders will be banned permanently:

Obviously, any known slurs against Jews ("y*d", "k**e", "h**b", "Chr*st-ki**er", etc.), or any permutations thereof
Using the word "Jew" or "Jewish" itself as a pejorative or insult
Adding pejorative modifiers such as "dirty", "cheap", or "money-grubbing" to same

Comparing Jews to vampires, vultures, bloodsuckers, parasites, pirates, carpetbaggers, etc.
Blood libel or vilification of any kind
Stab-in-the-back legends vilifying Jews

Claiming that Jews are sinister puppeteers or secretly rule the world 

Claims of divided loyalties 
Calling for violence of any kind against Jews or Israel
Inciting pogroms of any kind

Praising the October 7th terrorist attack
Any Holocaust denial (including "soft" denial or minimization, or JAQ-ing off)
Any Holocaust jokes, or any jokes about gas chambers, ovens, or death squads in relation to anyone Jewish.  NOT FUNNY!

Any Anne Frank jokes
Any other jokes demeaning to Jews

Any praising of Hitler or the Nazis (or neo-Nazis)
Any praising of the KKK or white supremacists or white nationalists, including the "alt-right" and neo-Confederates
Any praising of known Holocaust deniers
Any praising of Hamas or Hezbollah (or al-Qaeda or ISIL, for that matter)
Falsely accusing any Jew of being a Nazi collaborator or kapo, or repeating such unproven or debunked claims
Putting (((triple parentheses))) around anyone's name, as a code for "Jew"
Obsessing over (((George Soros))), for example

"14 (Words), or 14/88"
"311" (unless clearly referencing the band)
"88" (without clear explanation)
"America First" (depending on context)
"Anglo-Israelism" (when giving it any credence)
"The Bad War" (in reference to WWII)
"Cultural Marxism" (as a dog-whistle slur)
"Death to Israel" (or something similar)

"East Coast Liberal Intellectual Elite" (dog whistle)

"False flag" (if allegedly done by Jews or Israel)
"From the river to the sea" (without detailed explanation of what one really means)
"Globalist" (as a dog-whistle slur)

"Globalize the Intifada"

"Glory to the martyrs" (in reference to terrorists)
"Gotta pay the Jews if you wanna sing the blues"
"Hexagram" (instead of "Star of David")
"Heil Hitler", "Sieg Heil", or "Hail Victory"
"Hitler was the good guy"
"Hitler was a socialist"
"Hitler was a Rothschild"
"Hitler was Jewish"
"Hoaxocaust" or "HollowHoax" or any permutations thereof
"Hooknose" (or any caricatures thereof)
"Hymietown"

"Illuminati" (in reference to Jews)

"Infidels" (in reference to Jews)

"Infowars" (in reference to Jewish conspiracy theories of any kind)

"Intifada" (when praising violence against Jews)
"ISIS = Israeli Secret Intelligence Service"
"Israel (or Jews) was behind 9/11"

"Israhell"

"Jew them down"
"Jews caused the financial crisis"
"Jews have us hypnotized"
"Jews killed Jesus"
"Jews own Hollywood"

"Jews own X percent of the wealth"
"Jews will not replace us!"
"Jewish Slave Trade"
"Jewish Cabal"
"Jewish Media (Elites)"
"Judeo-Bolshevism"
"The Jew York Times"
"Khazars"
"Kosher Tax"
"Loy-yahs"

"Lugenpresse"

"Mein Kampf" or "My New Order"
"Money boys up in New York" (dog whistle)

"New York bankers" (dog whistle)

"Octopus" or any images thereof (in reference to Jews)

"Pat Buchanan was right"
"Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion" (if claiming that this long-debunked canard is true)
"Red Diaper Doper Babies" (RDDB)
"Rootless cosmopolitans" (in reference to Jews)
"Rothschilds" (in reference to conspiracy theories)

"Shylock"

"Shyster" (when referring to a Jew)

"Synagogue of Satan"
"Unite the Right"
"War on Christmas" (when used without irony)
"White Genocide" (conspiracy theories)
"White Power" or "White Pride"
"Winston Churchill was the real bad guy"
"Wipe Israel off the map" (or any variations thereof)

"Work will set you free" (especially in the original German)

"Wrathchild" (as an alternative to "Rothschild")
"You will not replace us!"
"Zionazis"
"Zionist Conspiracy"
"ZOG" (Zionist Occupied Government)
Images of swastikas, Confederate flags, nooses, burning crosses, "Le Happy Merchant" or "Evil Jew" caricatures, or any other recognized hate symbols, period
Any other antisemitic canards or tropes

Please note that anti-Zionism per se, when honestly and seriously included as part of a broader anti-colonial framework, is not automatically prohibited here.  The same goes with supporting some forms of Zionism but not others, and so on.  Criticism of Israel (and/or support for Palestinians) is fine as along as it is nuanced and grounded in reality, but be sure to be specific about exactly which individuals, policies, and/or political parties you are criticizing, and why.  Vaguely using "Zio(nist)" or any permutations thereof as a veiled slur against Jews in general will not be tolerated, and of course the same goes for any specious claims that Israel has no right to exist at all.

For the record, the TSAP supports the "two-state solution", which is shorthand for 1) revert back to the the pre-1967 borders of Israel and Palestine, 2) officially recognized Palestinian statehood for Gaza and the West Bank, 3) end any non-consensual Jewish settlements in Palestinian territories, and 4) both Israel and Palestine have a right to exist, period.  And we have long vehemently opposed Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing Likud Party (as well as parties even further to the right still), while also vehemently opposing Hamas and Hezbollah all the same.  Yes, it's entirely possible to oppose both at the same time.

As for criticism or negative views of patriarchal religions, that is fine, but do NOT single out Judaism.  Keep in mind that the most prominent and populous branches of Judaism are typically among the most progressive and least patriarchal of all the Big Five mainstream religions nowadays.

As for conspiracy theories in general, you may share them, but please don't drag the Jews into it, and don't use any dog-whistles either.  Seriously, don't do it!

And while the TSAP loves to criticize the big banks, Wall Street, usury, and oligarchs in general, along with their nefarious system, we ask that you NOT appropriate such ideas for scapegoating Jews or dog-whistling your virulent hatred of same.  Keep in mind that most banksters and oligarchs are WASPs, not Jews.  So let's not pretend otherwise, OK?  That old trope really didn't age very well at all.

After all, as a party that greatly supports Bernie Sanders and Marianne Williamson, both of whom are Jewish, we would really be suicidal to ignore antisemitism on the left, right, or anywhere else on the political spectrum.  In the USA, it has long seemed to be far more prevalent on the right wing, though very recently the "left" unfortunately seems to be stealing the show in that regard. And it has no place in our party.

We ignore it at our own peril, and everyone else's.

Time To Abolish Political Parties

Yeah, that's right.  It's time to abolish political parties in the USA.  And yesterday is not soon enough.

We see the terrible consequences of party politics every single day.  Our nation is more polarized and divided now than any other time since the American Civil War of 1861-1865.  And it shows.  The best we have gotten was gridlock, and the worst is yet to come if we stay on the self-destructive path we are on.

The elephant and jackass duopoly must end.  They are both nothing more than two sides of the very same corporate- and oligarch-owned coin.  

George Washington, the leader of the Founding Fathers and the first President of the United States, famously warned against political parties (or "factions", as he called them) in his Farewell Address.  And he warned against them with the same fervor as he did against "foreign entanglements".  And of course, no sooner did he leave office than did political parties (and foreign entanglements, to one degree or another) become the norm for America.  He must really be spinning in his grave right now!

Just Say NO To World War 3!

It has come to our attention that there is a faction in the USA and elsewhere of largely neoconservatives who are incessantly itching for a hot war with Iran more than ever.  The casus belli this time (as though the warmongers really needed a new one) is 1) that Iran has long supported and funded both Hamas and Hezbollah, which is true, and 2) that Iran's fingerprints are (allegedly) all over Hamas's brutal and barbaric terrorist attack against Israel, which is debatable.  That is in addition to Iran's alleged nuclear weapons ambitions, of course, which was the previous justification, as well as their proxy attacks against American troops in Iraq and Syria.

(For the record, we thoroughly condemn Hamas's brutal and barbaric terrorist attack against Israel, without qualification.)

That said, going to war with Iran directly would be a major strategic blunder for a number of reasons.  First, a ground war and occupation there would be an even worse quagmire than the ill-fated ground wars and occupations in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Secondly, even a predominantly air war, which could set Iran back centuries if we really wanted to, would ultimately create a "failed state" which would be a magnet for extremists in the future.  The inevitable blowback sooner or later would be horrendous to say the least.  As the saying goes, "you break it, you own it".  At the same time, a half-assed war would in fact be the worst of all options in the long run, and any forcible "regime change" will inevitably create a dangerous power vacuum sooner or later.  And finally, a war with Iran would be very likely to draw in Iran's staunchest allies:  Russia, China, and North Korea, three nuclear-armed countries that any sane person does NOT want to get into a hot war with!  That would be World War 3, essentially, and even if it somehow doesn't go nuclear (which is far from guaranteed), it would still be truly horrendous and extremely costly in both lives and resources.  Any "victory" would be a Pyrrhic victory at best.

(Nuclear war is simply too horrible to even contemplate, something no sane person could ever support, period.  But just one miscommunication and it can happen.)

In other words, the USA attacking Iran would not be like cutting of the head off of the proverbial snake, but rather more like a Hydra whose heads will keep multiplying each time one is severed.  OOPS!

At the very least, a three-front war like that (without going nuclear) would NOT be even remotely possible to win with an all-volunteer military for very long.  The Reserves and National Guard can only buy us so much time for what will likely be a very long and bloody war of attrition that would likely dwarf World Wars 1 and 2 and the American Civil War combined.  That's the biggest elephant in the room.  So for all the people who want to go to war with Iran (or any the other aforementioned countries), let's put it up to a vote.  Those who vote "yes", well, greetings, you have just been drafted!  Those who abstained will be next if needed.  Those who vote "no" shall be exempt.  And the vote should be repeated annually to decide whether or not to renew the war effort for yet another year.  And if that is still somehow not enough for a truly existential war that already began and where withdrawal is truly not an option, and a more comprehensive draft is still somehow needed, then draft the billionaires first, then the millionaires, and so on.  It's only fair.

With absolutely NO apologies to the modern-day Ayn Rand disciples who are itching to fight Iran, and yet paradoxically quail at the very thought of personally having any sort of skin in the game themselves.

(Normally I would agree that a country that needs a draft to defend itself deserves to lose, and that in any case they could easily have enough recruits for an all-volunteer military if they simply paid them enough.  And in principle that still remains true.  But a World War 3, due to its inherently massive scale and duration, would kinda be the exception that proves the rule.)

So seriously, warmongers.  KNOCK IT OFF.  Yesterday.  Do everything you possibly can to defuse any impulse to start such a war.  Yesterday.  The life that you save may very well be your own.

QED

We Condemn Hamas' Barbaric Attack on Israel

The TSAP hereby condemns in the strongest possible terms the barbaric attack on Israel by Hamas on October 7th.  There was literally ZERO justification whatsoever to deliberately target innocent civilians (men, women, children, and elderly alike) with such vicious violence like that.  Whoever engages in that sort of evil and inhuman behavior thus acquires an indelible stain on whatever semblance of honor that they may have still had before.  The same goes for those who support or cheer on such vile depravity as well, including, but not limited to, certain ignorant knee-jerk "leftist" fools in the Western world, as well as the predictable garden-variety antisemitism.

That said, the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict has nonetheless been a very complicated and nuanced issue in which both sides have very much blood on their hands, including the blood of civilians. The years-long siege of Gaza by the Israeli occupation is brutal and unjustifiable as well, as is their broader illegal occupation of areas not permitted to be occupied in the original plan that prevailed before 1967.  The fanatical terrorist group Hamas is NOT representative of the Palestinian people in general, no more so than the crooked far-right Netanyahu Likud government is representative of Israeli Jews in general.  Both sides actually have legitimate claim to the Holy Land to one degree or another, and DNA evidence has revealed both Jews and Palestinians to be essentially cousins to one degree or another.  And ultimately, this is not really America's fight.

All of these things can be true without the universe exploding.  And as Mahatma Gandhi famously said, "An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind".

UPDATE:  For the record, the TSAP supports a two-state solution, not a one-state solution of either kind.  We believe two-state solution is the least-worst solution overall.  And now that Israel has indeed responded to the Hamas terrorist attack, we do not support any further escalation (or any other countries entering the war on either side), and strongly recommend a ceasefire or at least a humanitarian pause.  But all of the hostages still need to be released, and perpetrators still need to be brought to swift, certain, and severe justice all the same.

"Never Again" does NOT come with an asterisk.

Too Late To Avoid A Recession, But Let's NOT Make It Worse!

It looks like it is too late to avoid a recession at this point, as some degree of one is already baked into the cake at this point.  Not only are there several big headwinds right now (rising oil prices, rising insurance rates, record-high credit card debt, student loans coming due, Congressional dysfunction, and the prospect of a government shutdown), but the FERAL Reserve has obstinately kept interest rates high at a Fed Funds Rate of 5.25%.  While it may not seem high by historical standards, combined with their Quantitative  Tightening and record-high levels of debt throughout the economy, it can easily feel like the double-digit interest rates of the late 1970s and early 1980s.  Aside from oil (thanks to Russia and OPEC) and a few other things, which interest rate hikes are utterly useless and even counterproductive against, the recent inflation has already been largely defeated, and may soon turn to deflation.  Which sounds great in theory, but in practice is anything but.

While it is most likely too late to avoid a recession at this point, the very least the Fed could do is cut interest rates yesterday and end Quantitative Tightening to avoid an even worse recession or depression.  Don't say you haven't been warned.

UPDATE: As of September 30, the government shutdown was averted, but the issue was really just delayed by 45 days via a stopgap funding bill.  Additionally, as of early October, crude oil prices began falling but diesel fuel remains stubbornly high for a number of reasons such as a refinery crunch.

We Support The UAW Workers' Strike

The TSAP supports the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike against the Big Three automakers.  The CEOs of these companies, who were already making eight-figure salaries, saw a 46% increase in pay for themselves over the past four years, while the workers got a mere 6% increase, not nearly enough to keep up with inflation.  That, along with their ridiculous "two-tier" pay system for older versus newer employees, is basically a microcosm of all that is wrong with the economy today.  So one can see how the management in other industries is starting to get nervous about the "Hot Labor Summer" spreading to those industries as well.  The plutocracy trembles.

Ever since the PATCO (air traffic controllers union) strike debacle in 1981 under President Ronald Reagan, and all the ripple effects in its aftermath, organized labor has weakened dramatically.  Unions had become such pikers with their demands, which only led them to become even weaker in the face of an all-out assault against the working class from the plutocracy and their sycophantic lackeys in government.  But now, after a very long detour, the tide seems to be finally turning for the better.

It's LONG overdue.  What better time than now?

The Elephant In The Room

Excess deaths have become the proverbial "elephant in the room" around the world in the wake of the pandemic.  But what are the true causal mechanisms behind such deaths?  The virus itself, which was more humdrum than was originally believed, can really only be blamed for a fraction of these deaths, and most of those skewed sharply along an age gradient and underlying condition gradient.  The lockdowns and related countermeasures of course contributed to the excess deaths and did far more harm than good.  Ditto for iatrogenic deaths from faulty treatment protocols and denial and censorship of effective ones.

But why were 2021 and 2022 even worse years for excess deaths than 2020?  Well, enter the jabs.  Adding to the mounting evidence against them is yet another new study implicating them in excess deaths in many countries.  The study finds a "definite causal link" between jab rollouts and all-cause mortality in 17 countries, including countries that had barely any measurable Covid at the time the rollout began.  And most notably, the study finds such links for all types of jabs studied (including the inactivated whole virus ones), not just the worst mRNA ones.  And as we already know, deaths are just the tip of a very large iceberg of harm from these things.

At best, it certainly puts the lie to the specious claim of a net lifesaving effect. 

How much more evidence do we need to finally admit the dark truth about what really happened? 

Dear FERAL Reserve: Cut Interest Rates NOW!

With inflation falling to around 3% per the latest report, which is within the normal range for a growing economy, we can safely conclude that the war on inflation has been won.  The dragon may not have been slain, but it has largely gone back to sleep for the foreseeable future.  Supply chains seem to have long since fully recovered for the most part, while most of the inflation since then has been wanton "greedflation" by mega-corporations consolidating and rigging the game (and thus interest rates are the wrong tool for the job).  And potential recession and even deflation clouds seem to be gathering on the horizon as we speak.  Even if there is no recession, keeping interest rates too high for too long can paradoxically increase inflation in the long run, or one could get the two for one special, as Canada unfortunately learned the hard way in the 1980s.  The "therapeutic window" for hiking interest rates to fight inflation is therefore closed.

Oh, and we have another housing bubble ready to burst at any time, apparently. 

So the FERAL Reserve really needs to stand down, stop raising rates, pause Quantitative  Tightening, and start cutting rates yesterday by at least 1% immediately, and eventually to below the inflation rate.  Or at least no later than their next meeting. Mr. Powell seems to be really begging for a recession (or worse) with his relentless tempting of fate!

This is the LAST chance we have to avoid a major financial crisis and severe deflationary recession (or worse), and that's if it's not already baked into the cake at this point.  Because once that happens, monetary policy (at least by conventional means) will be as utterly futile as pushing on a string.

QED

Case Closed: Masks STILL Don't Work

(This is a repost of an article from February 2023, as we thought the reader might need a reminder now in light of current events involving mask zealots.)

A major new gold standard Cochrane review study has come to a conclusion that only the utterly brainwashed would consider at all shocking at this point:  masks don't really work to stop the spread of respiratory viruses.  Never did, and never will.  Not even the vaunted N95.  Handwashing is likely modestly effective, but masks are basically a joke overall, and not a very funny one either.

This concurs with over a century of research that came out overwhelmingly in support of the anti-mask side of the debate.  In fact, by 1919 it was practically settled science that these devices aren't anywhere near what they were cracked up to be, a consensus which prevailed until March 2020.  Then the pandemic narrative took over and turned the science upside down for nearly three years straight, while any studies were to the contrary were systematically file-drawered for far longer than those supporting the narrative.  And now the entire pandemic narrative has collapsed faster than formerly healthy young athletes on the field after being jabbed.

We recently noted how the ever-insightful Ian Miller has so thoroughly debunked, deboned, sliced, diced, and julienned the pro-mask arguments, and laid waste to their utterly scorched remains for good.  And be sure check out the excellent Fargo study from Josh Stevenson et al. about masks for kids as well, likely the very best one yet, with the very least biases or confounding.  Spoiler alert:  masks STILL don't work.  Not for kids, not for adults, not for no one.

Oh, and let's not forget the dreaded Foegen Effect as well.  And other harms as well, see here.  That literally makes masks WORSE than useless.  Jettison them!

To the anti-mask side:  you are now hereby overwhelmingly vindicated, and really always have been in fact.  You have literally passed the biggest functional IQ test in all of modern history.  To the pro-mask side:  we are still waiting for you to apologize.  Yesterday.  And to those who switched jerseys anytime after February 2022 (that is, only when it became socially acceptable to do so), you are fooling no one.

QED

UPDATE:  Some may pedantically point out that "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence", therefore "no one can really say" that masks don't work.  True, you cannot (definitively) prove a negative.  But given the totality of the research and real-world evidence, it would be slothful induction (if not magical thinking as well) to still believe that masks have any sort of net benefit at all. If they did have a net benefit, it would have been self-evident long ago.  We need to see the forest for the trees.

"But...but...they worked in Japan!" See here for a good debunking of that myth as well.

And in case the pro-masker zealots pathetically trot out the fatally flawed Boston school mask study in desperation, rest assured that Ian Miller has successfully laid waste to that one as well.  And so has the ever-insightful Emily Burns, as well as Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, one of the authors of the Fargo study. 

Oh, and another study found that masks in HOSPITALS make no difference to infection rates.  Thus, if they don't even work in hospitals with all of their universal multilayered precautionary measures, they simply don't work at all, period.

UPDATE 2:  A re-analysis of the infamous Boston mask study has now thoroughly debunked it.

UPDATE 3:  For more on the harms of masks, see here.

UPDATE 4:  And another school masking study can be found here as well, co-authored by the aforementioned Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg.  Again, surprise surprise, masks STILL don't work.  Period. 

UPDATE 5:  And that's before we get into the toxins that can be emitted from some types of masks, including the vaunted N95.

UPDATE 6:  Pushback works.  Contrary to Carl Jung's famous saying, what you resist does NOT persist, as long as you resist enough.  DO NOT COMPLY!

UPDATE 7:  Looks like masks are even more harmful than we thought, especially for children. 

And finally, see here about the ultimate success of one of the most anti-mask (and anti-lockdown) countries in the world, Sweden.  As a result, we think "Stockholm Syndrome" should really be called "Melbourne Syndrome", because #SwedenGotItRight.

(Mic drop)

Smile And Say "Birth Certificate", Donald!

Found this on social media recently.  A picture is worth a thousand words:

Fool Me Once, Shame On You. Fool Me Twice, Shame On Me.

Time warp much?  Last I checked, the calendar says 2023, not 2020 or 2021.  Some people apprently didn't get the memo, based on their recent behavior.

The zealots are at it again, it seems.  Whether it is to sell more jabs, attempt to vindicate themselves, or something even more sinister, they are dusting off their old playbook once again in regards to the virus.  Fortunately, it seems to be just a few outliers for the time being, and most people are largely tuning out the fearmongering.  Looks like We the People have finally reached "herd immunity" to their BS, God willing.

At this juncture of history, pushing for any sort of virus-related mandates will truly be political and career suicide for anyone pushing it.  Are they really that stupid? Or do they just want us to think they are that stupid?  Either way, they are truly insulting the intelligence of 99% of the population by doing so.

All of the virus-related mandates, fearmongering, and the totalitarian ideology behind them need to be completely eradicated, root and branch, lest they ultimately grow back the moment it becomes politically expedient to do so and/or when "generational forgetting" eventually sets in. And of course, they can be repurposed for the next "crisis", real or manufactured, whatever that may be (climate lockdowns?).  We truly ignore that fact at our peril.

Whatever happens next, DO NOT COMPLY!  Give them an inch, and they will take a mile every time.

UPDATE:  Looks like much of the incipient revival of mandates by the outliers is being stalled or even reversed due to pushback.  Good for them!  Imagine if that much pushback had occurred in March 2020, how differently things would have gone.

Do Interest Rate Hikes Really Fight Inflation?

Short answer:  In a word, NO.

Long answer:  It's a very nuanced and complicated issue, but in practice, hiking interest rates generally does more harm than good, and at best is really not very effective in fighting inflation. 

Interest rate hikes, far from being a "razor-sharp, double-edged sword" (as we at the TSAP used to say) in theory, they are in practice just as blunt of an instrument as tax hikes are.  And they only "work" insofar as they cause a recession, as history has shown.  When the FERAL Reserve raises interest rates, it is "pushing on a a string" when they raise them insufficiently to cause a recession, and "blunt force trauma" to the economy when they raise them enough to do so.  And when they cut rates, it is even more so like "pushing on a string", as the damage is usually already done by that point, and of course they cannot cross the "zero lower-bound" into negative rates without inherently turning the world of finance upside-down.  There seems to be no "Goldilocks zone" for interest rate policy during times of high inflation, and the "therapeutic window" is generally closed.

Knowledge says that choking the economy until it goes limp and then choking it some more technically reduces inflation by killing demand for goods and services.  But wisdom says that one could hardly call that a success.

Not only are interest rate hikes inherently recessionary, they can also paradoxically increase one of the two types of inflation, "cost-push inflation", even as they tamp down the other type, "demand-pull inflation."  Both types are two sides of the same coin, so it can easily result in (or exacerbate) chronic stagflation, for which the only "cure" is to hike the rates so extremely high to cause a deep recession or depression, followed by cutting rates very quickly, at the cost of massive collateral damage.  A "cure" that is worse than the disease.

And the fallout falls not on the rich, who are largely insulated from the consequences, but overwhelmingly on the poor and working class, and also the middle class as well.

Cutting the money supply, whether fiscally via austerity or monetarily via quantitative tightening, is also similarly recessionary and damaging as well.  Both forms of tightening, along with interest rate hikes, are at best "break glass in case of emergency" measures that should almost never be used, period.

In other words, if you "burn the village to save it", the village will eventually return the favor.  You reap what you sow.  That's literally how karma works.

Even Rodger Malcolm Mitchell himself has recently turned against the idea of interest rate hikes, a policy he once strongly supported.  That really says something indeed.  Ellen Brown would agree as well.

So what works instead?  According to Mitchell, the root cause of ALL inflations is shortages.  Whether it's oil, gas, energy in general, food, labor, or otherwise, shortages are the common denominator.  To cure inflation, we must cure the shortages.  Now that is often a lot easier said than done, but governments who issue their own currency can help resolve shortages by fiscally incentivizing more production of such scarce goods and services.  And, of course, to also refrain from creating shortages in the first place with things like price controls or other artificial restrictions by fiat that are known to backfire. 

Oil, gas, or energy shortage?  Incentivize more domestic oil/gas production in the short term, followed by renewable energy production in the medium to long term as well.  Buy oil/gas or energy at at premium and resell it or give it away at a loss.  Food shortage?  Buy food at a premium and resell it or give it away at a loss.  Computer chip shortage?  Incentivize domestic chip factories.  Labor shortage?  Implement a "reverse payroll tax" like the EITC but simpler and more straightforward, to boost the paychecks of workers without increasing costs for employers.  Or the government can hire the most in-demand workers directly at a premium.  And consider replacing all or some means-tested social welfare programs with an unconditional Universal Basic Income (UBI) that does not perversely penalize people for working.  And so on.  That's the power of creating one's own currency via Monetary Sovereignty. 

QED.  Case closed, at least until we find even more compelling evidence otherwise. Therefore, the TSAP's new position in interest rates shall supersede everything we have said in the past about the topic.

UPDATE:  So what is the ideal interest rate then?  Should we do what MMT advocates, and just park it at zero and leave it there? There is a good case to be made for that, and the answer probably depends on a number of factors.  But negative interest rates are really not a wise idea for a national currency (too negative and people just hoard cash under the mattress, while not negative enough is really no better than zero).  For complementary and alternative local currencies, negative interest (aka demurrage) can perhaps make sense, like the Austrian town of Worgl famously did during the Great Depression, but the benefits of such likely do not scale up very well.  Thus for national currencies, zero is the practical lower bound.  And if zero interest (i.e. being able to borrow money for free) is still not stimulative enough, then do "QE for the People" by printing more money and giving it directly to everyone, rather than the banks in "regular" QE.  Problem solved. 

James Gailbraith makes a great case for low interest rates overall.

Thus, like MMT, the natural interest rate should be assumed to be zero by default, but unlike MMT, we should still not tie our hands and take higher rates off the table completely as a "break glass in case of emergency" measure.  Nor should Treasury bond sales be completely discontinued either, as those help stabilize the financial system in times of instability.

But what about speculative bubbles?  Don't low interest rates encourage those?  Yes to some extent, but only if Wall Street is deregulated like the Wild West (like now).  Therefore, better regulation of the big banks and shadow banking system, and a financial transactions tax, are a better idea to rein in reckless speculation than high interest rates. 

TL;DR version:  In a nutshell, raising interest rates has a tendency to backfire and generally does more harm than good, once all the jargon and accoutrements are stripped away. Occam's Razor would say that deliberately making everything effectively more expensive across the board (by making money itself harder and costlier to get) to engineer a recession is a terrible way to fight inflation, and can only encourage a perpetual quagmire of stagflation.

What about the Canadian experience in the 1980s?  Well, their inflation and unemployment were even worse than the USA despite (or more likely because) they kept their interest rates higher for longer.  And that disparity persisted well into the 1990s, until they devalued their overvalued currency, and then cut interest rates, which seemed to solve the problem.

Dear FERAL Reserve: Cut Interest Rates NOW!

With inflation falling to 3% per the latest report, which is within the normal range for a growing economy, we can safely conclude that the war on inflation has been won.  The dragon may not have been slain, but it has largely gone back to sleep for the foreseeable future.  Supply chains seem to have long since fully recovered for the most part, while most of the inflation since then has been wanton "greedflation" by mega-corporations consolidating and rigging the game (and thus interest rates are the wrong tool for the job).  And potential recession and even deflation clouds seem to be gathering on the horizon as we speak.  Even if there is no recession, keeping interest rates too high for too long can paradoxically increase inflation in the long run, or one could get the two for one special, as Canada unfortunately learned the hard way in the 1980s.

So the FERAL Reserve really needs to stand down, stop raising rates, and start cutting rates yesterday.  Or at least no later than their next meeting. 

UPDATE:  The FERAL Reserve just raised rates again by 0.25%.  Mr. Powell seems to be really begging for a recession (or worse) with his tempting of fate!

No Longer Any Doubt That SCOTUS Is Corrupt

The recent rulings of the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS), along with the suspicious "gifts" that some justices (particularly Thomas and Alito, and likely others too) had apparently accepted from influential "donors", leaves no doubt about just how crooked and corrupt the largely right-wing justices are.  From unceremoniously overturning Roe v. Wade (after literally promising not to do so!) to the striking down of Biden's student loan relief, and many other things in between, it is now painfully obvious that the SCOTUS is no longer even remotely fit for purpose.  And they are just getting started, it seems.

Biden of course needs to pack the court with more decent justices, FDR-style.  And the SCOTUS needs a major overhaul in general, not least in regards to their ethics rules. Yesterday is not soon enough!

How To Create A Deadly Plandemic In Five Easy Steps

The ever-insightful Joel Smalley of Metatron posted an excellent Substack titled, "How to Create a Deadly Pandemic in Five Easy Steps", complete with charts/graphs.  It was a classic "Problem, Reaction, Solution" (often incorrectly called "Thesis, Antithesis, Synthesis" or "Hegelian Dialectic") scheme per the MO of the psychopathic oligarchs in charge.  To paraphrase Smalley as follows:

1. "Accidentally" release a fairly ordinary virus (ordinary because one's GOF abilities were quite inferior), that can only be detected with a special test (that is conveniently easy to manipulate), and then blame it on the Chinese (even if it was probably a joint venture).
2. Euthanize old folks, typically done with midazolam, and blame it on the virus.
3. Deny regular early treatment with antibiotics and corticosteroids, for those who one cannot easily euthanize.
4. Introduce a "cure" in the form of a novel and experimental "vaccine", which (oops!) turns out to be deadly in itself, and then have the GALL to blame it on the unvaccinated. 
5. Slowly and quietly re-allow the use of various antivirals and such that were previously mocked, discouraged, censored, or banned, in addition to antibiotics and corticosteroids, and then let the "vaccine" take credit for any improvements that result.

In other words, it was an iatrogenocide of epic proportions.  And he backs this up with correlations between various prescription data, "vaccine" dose data, "Covid" death data, and all-cause excess death data.  Such data are VERY damning indeed.  Now we can see the big picture, and all that went into it.

And it pans out quite accurately indeed.  Also, a Bangladesh study found that just three nutrients--Vitamin C, Vitamin D, and Zinc--would have been enough to make the pandemic a non-event (at least if the pre-2020 standard of care had not been denied).

That, of course, was before the "vaccines".  And it should go without saying that any excess deaths and other harms that occurred after early 2021 or so could not possibly be disentangled from the "vaccines."

And of course, all the lockdowns, masks, and antisocial distancing were gasoline on the fire, as were the jab mandates and such.  While the five steps above could have still proceeded without these things, and with everything strictly "voluntary" per manufactured "consent", these things are very effective add-ons if one is going for maximum impact of a deadly plandemic.  They crank the fear factor up to 11, increase power and control by the oligarchs, divide and conquer the masses, and cause their own direct and indirect harms and deaths as well.

How will they ever live this down?

UPDATE:  Bonus points for the lockdowns, antisocial distancing, and related restrictions temporarily knocking out the competition from other, more benign and endemic respiratory viruses and allowing the more novel coronavirus to take hold more easily, while also perversely selecting for strains that were both more contagious and more deadly at the same time, AND also managing to build "immunity debt" to the temporarily suppressed viruses by the time they inevitably come roaring back with a vengeance. 

The lockdown zealots have a LOT to answer for!

UBI Is The Only Way To End Modern Slavery

Most of the objections to Universal Basic Income (UBI), from both the left and the right (usually the right), are fundamentally patronizing, paternalistic, and/or sadistic in nature, whether subtly or not-so-subtly.  Those are, of course, very easily debunked as void on their face in anything even remotely approaching a free and civilized society.  But what about the very few supposedly ethical objections that don't quite fit this mold?

One such objection to UBI is that it is really just "crowdsourced slavery", both within nations as well as (especially) with the imperialistic Global North continuing to exploit the Global South.  Or something.

Tell me, how exactly does one "crowdsource" slavery?  And if everyone is getting free money, and all work thus becomes de facto voluntary and optional, who exactly is really being exploited or enslaved?  How would anybody be able to economically coerce anyone else?

And how exactly can it possibly be any worse than the status quo?  (Don't think too hard about that.)

Even the biggest degrowth advocates like Jason Hickel openly support UBI, and he is certainly no imperialist shill.  Ditto for Charles Eisenstein and David Graeber.

True, UBI is unlikely to be global overnight, and will have to start at the national or subnational level.  A global UBI (especially directed primarily towards the Global South) would best be funded by a Tobin Tax on foreign currency exchanges, while a national, subnational, or local one would best be funded by seigniorage via national or local currencies, and/or Georgist-style taxation on the use of natural resources.  But until then, even a globally lopsided national-only UBI is highly unlikely to be any WORSE than the status quo, even if we do still maintain a sizable "trade deficit" in the near term.  In other words, if you make the perfect the enemy of the good, you ultimately end up with neither.

(Some may counter that they are really "making the necessary the enemy of the convenient", but that is really just begging the question.)

Over the lifecycle, we ALL subsidize each other to one degree or another.  Period.  And whether we like it or not, the globalization genie is out of the bottle, and has been for some time now.  And while all empires should of course go back to being republics, returning to complete autarky (whether it be national or small-scale autarky) is a practical nonstarter for the foreseeable future, so a new model of "alter-globalization," perhaps combined with some partial economic relocalization, is the least worst way forward.  (The scarcity mindset sure doesn't help.)

Until then, we need to meet people where they are at.

As for slavery, go look up your own slavery footprint under the status quo.  Go on.  I bet your hands don't feel so clean now, do they?

If you still feel guilty about receiving UBI for whatever reason, then by all means, feel free to to donate it to GiveDirectly then.  Put your money where your mouth is.  Otherwise, silence is golden.

Bonus points for those who decide they now support UBI, even if only so they can now finally afford to buy ethically sourced, fair trade products instead of the usual cheap junk often produced by slave labor.  If you just spotted the glaring "collective action problem" in the status quo before I mentioned it, you are quite astute, and even more bonus points to you.

Honestly, NO ONE's hands are truly clean in the system we currently live in.  Except those at the very top (the oligarchs) and the very bottom (literal chattel slaves) of the global pyramid, we are all effectively varying degrees of slaves AND slavers at the same time under the global kyriarchy.  And some form of UBI is necessary, even if not sufficient by itself, to finally end this evil system for good.

(Mic drop)

Dear Congress, Stop Playing "Chicken" With The Debt Ceiling. Yesterday.

Dear Congress, 

STOP playing "chicken" with the debt ceiling (and thus the global economy) and pass a clean bill to raise it so we don't default.  Yesterday. 

Seriously, KNOCK. IT. OFF.

Better yet, simply abolish the silly concept of the "debt ceiling" that NO other country in the world has.  It serves NO useful purpose except as a political cudgel, which means it has NO useful purpose at all.

If not, the President would have no choice but to either 1) default on its debt obligations, which clearly flies in the face of the Constitution and would be utterly disastrous for the global economy, 2) invoke the 14th Amendment and simply ignore the debt ceiling, or 3) #MintTheCoin, that is, mint a trillion-dollar platinum coin so the government can still pay its bills. Actually, the latter option really wouldn't be a bad idea, come to think of it.

Sincerely, 

Literally everyone with at least half a brain