And So We Finally Learn Just How Effective Mask Mandates Really Are

Spoiler alert: not very.  That is the conclusion of one of the most recent studies, that found--surprise!--no robust correlation between COVID case growth rates and either mask mandates or even mask usage rates across the USA.  This dovetails rather nicely with that iconoclastic Danish study from last year, plus literally decades worth of research as well.  Look, you can cherry-pick the data all you like to get the results you want, as some previous studies have, but dare to include just enough inconvenient data and the whole house of cards collapses faster than you can say, "A-HA!  So THAT'S why Americans universally stopped wearing these things in the spring of 1919, returned to normal, and didn't look back for over 100 years!"

And people will probably keep debating the mask question 100 years from now as well, given how it is one of the oldest debates in public health history.  Granted, we do not discount that masks, at least higher quality ones, may very well be at least marginally effective in selected instances.  But for the general population across the board, in the realest of real-world settings?  Well, if you really believe that, we've got a nice bridge we'd like to sell you.

(And an even bigger bridge to sell those who believe masks were what caused the flu to practically disappear for over a year now.  Hey, try to explain how it also practically disappeared in Florida, Georgia, South Dakota, and Sweden then. Go on.)

It's essentially a classic macro-micro problem, where just because something may work at the micro level, it does NOT follow that it will also work at the macro level.  The same goes for quarantines, the macro level equivalent of which being indiscriminate, population-wide lockdowns (instead of just the sick).  Some things simply don't scale very well at all!

Voluntary mask wearing may simply be a classic placebo, where the wearers may simply be more cautious in general, while forced/coerced mask wearing may lead the wearers to be less cautious in general than they otherwise would, a phenomenon that has also been observed with mandatory seatbelt laws.  (To be fair, unlike mask mandates, seatbelt laws do still seem to have a net lifesaving effect regardless, albeit to the chagrin of pedestrians and cyclists.)

Honestly, if they did work at the macro level, then in any place with a broad mask mandate like most states and localities had (or at least mask usage rates above 80%, like practically all of the USA eventually was for a while), the pandemic would have been over within two weeks, three weeks tops.  And then masks would have thus made themselves obsolete.  Yes, some otherwise highly intelligent and knowledgeable mask advocates actually predicted (over a year ago, no less) that would happen, which in turn influenced even the TSAP's own formerly pro-mask mandate position as an alternative to lockdowns at the time (a position which we now deeply regret).  Yet alas, that clearly did NOT happen--for obvious reasons.  

And so, once the proper statistical controls (timing, seasonality, previous exposure, etc.) are employed, the statistical mirage of spurious correlation is thus debunked, deboned, sliced, diced, julienned, and its remains have been completely laid waste.

Game. Set. Match.

The TSAP actually supported mask mandates (albeit with nuance) from April/May up until about August 2020, half-supported them until December, and since then we have generally opposed them and currently we support repealing them in their entirety, as was done in 1919 nationwide and has already been done in most states (including those who never had such mandates at all) as of late May 2021.  That includes schools too, by the way, especially for students, as even the CDC now subtly admits that school mask mandates for students did NOT show any statistically significant benefit no matter how much they tried to torture the data.  (Apparently, the only thing that robustly and reliably works in schools is to ventilate, ventilate, ventilate, which actually makes sense for what we know now is in fact a predominantly airborne virus.)  Nor do we support discrimination against anyone by vaccination status either.

Look, if YOU personally want to keep wearing a mask, fine, more power to you.  Ditto if you want to avoid people who don't wear them, fine, keep your distance then.  Problem solved.  But currently we see no valid or compelling reason to continue to force people to wear them, in public or private.  Since when did this become such a controversial position to take?

From the looks of it at face value, Fauci may have indeed been largely right the first time when he initially pooh-poohed masks and actually told us not to touch our faces, and we're certainly old enough to remember that.  And it's not like mask mandates have actually led to faster reopenings or averted lockdowns either.  So whatever merits there are to individual mask wearing in whatever circumstances, there is no valid reason for any government to force them on anyone (outside of a healthcare setting), period, and it should be left to individuals and businesses to decide for themselves. 

By the same token, it looks like the WHO was also right the first time in that regard as well.  Even as recently as July 2020, believe it or not.

Kinda like when they let it slip in June 2020 that truly asymptomatic spread, while possible, is a lot rarer than most people think, a mere 0.7% even in that very closest and riskiest setting of all, within households.  Only to be forced to walk it back the very next day, of course.  And outdoor spread?  A vanishingly low 0.1% of cases.  And fomites (surfaces)?  An even lower still < 0.01%, and probably even less than that if people wash their hands and don't touch their faces or keep fiddling with their masks!  All for a disease with an infection fatality rate within the ballpark of a nasty flu season for most people, and that we know now how to treat effectively.  This is what the actual science says.  And it utterly demolishes the need for lockdowns, closures, mask mandates, or any other New Abnormal restrictions at this juncture, period.

See also here as well for a good explanation of the crucial difference between large droplets (that masks do seem to work for) and much smaller aerosols (which basically go right through and/or around essentially ALL masks other than properly fit-tested N95s).  It is the latter that seem to be a bigger driver of transmission, unfortunately, and worse, since they tend to penetrate deeper into the lungs, they also tend to make you sicker too.  Thus, we should not be at all surprised by the null effects of universal community masking at the macro level.  In fact, even the "variolation" theory is basically turned on its head as well--larger droplets would probably provide better "variolation" than aerosols would, ironically.

As for children, see here for a good and thorough debunking of the notion that forcing them to wear masks in school and elsewhere is somehow necessary, effective, or benign.  Even the WHO says that children under 5 years of age should not wear masks at all, children ages 6-11 should only wear them in certain circumstances, and children of any age with various kinds of disabilities or health conditions should not be required to wear them at all.  The CDC, on the other hand, apparently prefers to steamroll over anything even remotely resembling nuance in that regard.

See also here as well for an excellent article about how continued universal masking may even be harmful in the long run for all ages.  All the more reason NOT to make this practice permanent in any sense, and to phase it out completely in nearly all circumstances. We ignore actual science at our peril.

UPDATE:  The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) announced that they recommend that children ages 2-11 (!) continue to wear masks and socially distance until they are fully vaccinated (despite the fact that no COVID vaccine has been authorized yet for children under the age of 12, and even if there were, safety concerns would still remain due to the relative lack of clinical trial data for that age group).  All for a disease that is less deadly than the flu for kids, and about as deadly as chickenpox (the reader may even be old enough to remember chickenpox parties for kids up until the early 1990s before that vaccine came out), and furthermore that they rarely transmit to adults (a majority of whom are anyway either fully vaccinated or very soon to be).  Seriously?  Talk about some grade-A gaslighting and triangulation there, that would make even the most malignant narcissistic abuser blush!  We will all one day look back on this dark time in history with utter horror and disbelief, and alas today's youngest generation may never fully recover.  To the AAP, we have one question for you:  how does it feel to be on the wrong side of history?  Because we really wouldn't know anything about that.

And the CDC's much-hyped, supposed "increase" in teen hospitalizations is based on outdated data, and many of those are likely incidental positives when hospitalized for non-COVID reasons, particularly psychiatric admissions that have increased due to the lockdown-induced mental health crisis that is has been hitting young people particularly hard.

And finally, the Earth will thank us as well when we finally do belatedy ditch these (mostly plastic) masks for good, but alas, the damage to the oceans is done.

JUNE UPDATE:  One nuance that gets glossed over by both pro-mask and anti-mask folks is the issue of presymptomatic transmission, as the Swiss Doctor notes.  While truly asymptomatic transmission is indeed quite rare, presymptomatic transmission may actually be quite common, as is the case with influenza (albeit with COVID having a more gradual onset of symptoms than influenza).  It is a brief window of usually 1-2 days, though sometimes up to 4 days between peak viral load and (known) symptom onset.  Regardless though, masks still don't work for aerosol transmission, which would be especially predominant in such instances given the lack of large sneezing and coughing droplets.  The only thing that really works for aerosols is good ventilation, as well as perhaps air filters and UV light.  Masks are to aerosol viruses as chain-link fences are to mosquitoes.

And lest you still credit masks with the apparently success of East Asian countries in keeping death rates so low, a better explanation would be the near-absence of obesity in these countries, along with perhaps previous exposure to other related coronaviruses.  Especially judging from these countries' performance during past flu seasons, during which masks seemed to make no difference. 

People keep citing a North Carolina school study as "proof" that "masks work!", but since that study lacked a mask-optional school control group for comparison (i.e. all schools in the study mandated masks for everyone ages 5 and older), it says literally NOTHING about the effectiveness of masks.

And another school study looking at Florida, New York, and Massachusetts found no correlation between school mask mandates and COVID case rates for students OR staff after adjusting for confounders.  Not only that, but greater in-person student density was actually associated with fewer COVID cases, not more.  This dovetails with the cross-sectional CDC study that looked at Georgia schools between November 16, 2020 and December 11, 2020 and found no statistically significant effect of student mask mandates.  And it also strongly implies that the latter study's apparent correlation between staff mask mandates and fewer cases was most likely spurious and driven by selection bias, endogeneity, and/or confounding from community case rates, especially since the former study looked a much longer time period than the latter one, and also controlled for community case rates.  Thus, this new study should really be the final nail in the coffin in terms of mask mandates, particularly for schools.  Game. Set. Match.

And see here and here as well.

AUGUST UPDATE:  Looks like there is even more evidence that masks are basically useless and little more than window dressing overall.  That is true even for adults, let alone for children to whom it applies a fortiori to.  The pro-mask side of what passes for "debate" really can't rely honestly on science anymore, so they increasingly resort to censorship and ad hominem attacks instead.  Ten years from now, if not much sooner, we guarantee that they will regret their stance just like they did not long after 1918.

SEPTEMBER UPDATE:  About that poorly-designed Bangladesh study that the pro-maskers are claiming "proves" once and for all that "masks work!", well, it clearly doesn't prove that at all.  It also says nothing at all about children, schools, or mandates, since neither of these were studied at all by this study.  The best it possibly says is that voluntary use of surgical masks when combined with distancing MIGHT work modestly at the margin in VERY selected instances (even if only a placebo effect as a universal symbol for "keep your distance!"), while cloth masks (i.e. the most commonly used kind) are basically completely useless, and it only goes downhill from there.

The TSAP Hereby Condemns Both Likud And Hamas

With the latest violence between Israel and Palestine, the TSAP hereby condemns the bad actors on both sides of the conflict:  Netanyahu's Likud Party on the Israeli side, as well as Hamas on the Palestinian side.  Both have the blood of innocent civilians (including children) on their hands, and neither side are really acting like adults in any meaningful sense of the term.

We support President Biden's call for a complete ceasefire in this increasingly senseless conflict, and we have always supported a "two-state solution", which is simply shorthand for ending the illegal post-1967 Israeli occupation of Gaza, West Bank, and the Golan Heights, and thus restoring the borders that prevailed before 1967.  And both sides must recognize each other's right to exist in peace, period.

Additionally, the TSAP condemns the latest rash of vicious anti-Semitic attacks in the New York City area, as we condemn that sort of deplorable behavior across the board.  NEWS FLASH:  You can certainly be pro-Palestinian and anti-occupation without resorting to being anti-Semitic or blanketly anti-Israel.  There is no need to vilify an entire race, religion, ethnicity, or nationality simply because you disagree with what a particular country's right-wing authoritarian government is doing.  Jews are not necessarily Israel, and Israel is not Netanyahu or the Likud Party, just like Palestinans in general are not Hamas.  Also like how Americans were not Trump when he was in  office.  So KNOCK IT OFF, yesterday!  Capisce?

As Mahatma Gandhi famously said, "An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind". And if you fight fire with fire, we all get burned sooner or later.

Don't Want A Worker Shortage? Stop Paying Starvation Wages!

The media hype over a supposedly widespread worker shortage gas been rife lately, and of course being blamed on a supposedly over-generous social safety net, particularly the expanded unemployment benefits put in place during the pandemic and still continuing to this day.  That supposedly makes it pay more to stay on the dole than to go back to work.  But the "absent referent" here, the biggest elephant in the room, is that wages are currently still too low.  If the federal minimum wage had kept up productivity gains since 1968, it would be about $22/hour today, similar to the current de facto minimum wage in most of the Nordic countries.  Given how the worker shortage is primarily concentrated in the lowest-paying jobs, the solution is very simple:  if employers want employees so desperately, then stop paying starvation wages, and pay the workers at LEAST what the market says they are really worth, and of course enough to, you know, LIVE on.  Problem solved.  Next.

In the meantime, as for the idea of unemployment benefits being too generous, if a true labor shortage were really a widespread problem, all they would need to do is take the extra $300/week bonus and instead repurpose that money as a wage subsidy to low-wage workers.  The latter bonus could be a sort of "reverse payroll tax" that automatically tops up one's paychecks directly.  Otherwise, leave the current benefits as is, albeit perhaps reinstating the work search requirements after some time, and require furloughed workers who are called back to their jobs to return to work after a reasonable amount of time.

It is worth noting that an actual Universal Basic Income (UBI) contains no such perverse incentives (unlike over-generous unemployment benefits), since one can still receive it regardless rather than have to give it up upon returning to work.  But it can still effectively increase the bargaining power of workers, increasing the de facto minimum wage.

How To Achieve (Functional) Zero COVID In TWO WEEKS Without Lockdowns, Masks, Or Vaccines

DISCLAIMER:  The following article references third-party sources and is intended for general information only, and is NOT intended to provide medical advice or otherwise diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease, including (but not limited to) COVID-19.  Consult a qualified physician before beginning any sort of treatment or prophylactic regimen and/or if you know or suspect that you currently have COVID-19.  Anyone who takes or does anything mentioned (or alluded to) in this or any other TSAP article does so entirely at their own risk and liability.  The TSAP thus makes absolutely no warranties, express or implied, and is not liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages resulting from any act or omission on the part of the reader(s) or others. Caveat lector.

See also our previous articles here, here, and here as well.  Also, special thanks to Bill Sardi, Dr. Gareth "Gruff" Davies, Dr. Dmitry Kats, Dr. Mikko Panunio, and Swiss Policy Research, et al. whose research this article draws upon and cites in the links throughout.

(Editor's Note:  The TSAP currently accepts that SARS-CoV-2 is essentially an endemic virus at this point and will be pretty much forever, and will eventually become the new common cold.  We use the term "Zero COVID" only in a very loose, relative, and temporary sense, as true and permanent eradication is no longer possible going forward.  Rather, it's functional Zero COVID.)

It's May 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic is now over a year old, and it looks like it is on its way out in the USA and most of the world.  The recent global surge is really driven by at most a handful of countries, while it is declining in most other countries.  In the USA and other wealthy countries, vaccination rates are already quite high and growing, and when combined with the at least 30% of the American population (estimated as high as 50-70% in North and South Dakota, and of course New York and New Jersey) that is estimated to have already been infected with the virus (often without even realizing it), "herd immunity" has most likely already been achieved even when using the naive definition that assumes a homogeneous population.  That does not eradicate the virus, of course, but it does keep it from exploding again.

The "Zero COVID" movement has clearly been wrong about being able to eradicate the virus using lockdowns, masks, or other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), as that train has clearly left the station long ago.  Even the best vaccines are unlikely to do it completely either.  Rather, what would be needed is 1) a quick silver-bullet cure for existing cases, and/or especially 2) a 100% prophylaxis (or very nearly so) that is readily available to all.  That would be powerful enough reduce the R value to well below 0.5, which seems to be the barrier below which no NPIs, even extreme lockdowns, are able push it for very long (unless done extremely early, along with border closures AND extremely good luck), yet that is the level where we would actually have a chance at beating the virus for good.  Otherwise, it just keeps popping back up, leading to an "epidemic yo-yo".

So what would this secret sauce be? Well, as we noted before in previous articles, Dr. Dmitry Kats knows it:

NIACIN!

That's right, Niacin (nicotinic acid, or Vitamin B3), in high doses would do the trick, practically overnight:

Dr. Kats himself even did an RCT, in fact:

And given how one "generation" of this virus is roughly two weeks, if nearly everyone were to follow this protocol whether they currently have COVID or not, the virus could conceivably be ERADICATED in as little as two weeks! Assuming Dr. Kats is correct about it being a virtually 100% prophylaxis, if done by at least 90% of the population for a mere two weeks, the R value would drop far too low for the virus to have any sort of chance at sustaining itself even in a totally COVID-naive and unvaccinated population.

Don't fear the flush!  It is a feature, not a bug!

Oh, and Dr. Kats knew this since MARCH 2020 and was trying to tell the world, but the ghouls in charge kept on censoring him.  Gee, I wonder why?  

Because their whole diabolical racket would collapse overnight, of course.  DUH!

(And it even works for long-haulers too!  Within a matter of days to no more than a few weeks for the worst cases.  Taking it while still acute, of course, would by definition nip it in the bud even sooner.)

Adding Vitamin D, Vitamin C, Vitamin A, Zinc, Quercetin, Thiamine, Vitamin B12, Magnesium, Selenium, Vitamin K, NAC, and the amino acid Lysine would also help greatly as well, but the real rockstar here is Niacin, as immediate-release nicotinic acid.

For Vitamin D, nearly everyone taking 50,000 units once weekly for two weeks, followed by 50,000 units once every two weeks until week six, would likely be enough alone to greatly reduce death and severe illness rates within two weeks, and can even end the pandemic in as little as six weeks.  Add 500-1000 mg/day of Niacin, plus the other nutrients, and you've got a belt-and-suspenders approach to eradication.

Throw in a little help from Mother Nature, given the seasonality of this virus (which is effectively "out of season" now in the northern temperate zone until well into the fall), and we basically got it made now.

And the best part of all:  we can go 100% back to normal on literally DAY ONE!  Yes, really.

So what are we waiting for?  

(And while we're at it, let these vitamins and minerals be among the very first things we send over to countries like India.  Apparently, 70-90% of Indians are suprisingly Vitamin D deficient to one degree or another--and that was before the pandemic.)

UPDATES:  We have decided after writing this article to give an honorable mention to another promising addition to our arsenal against the virus, namely C60 (Carbon 60, aka Buckminsterfullerene or Buckyball). It is believed to be up to 270 times more potent than Vitamin C in terms of antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, antiviral, and immune-boosting power, and is also considered to be a good detox and anti-aging compound as well.  Worth the old college try.

Also, note that N-acetylcysteine (NAC) is now recommended by Dr. Kats in addition to niacin and the others.  Though it is probably still best to wait at least few hours between them to avoid interference, much like waiting six hours between NAC and resveratrol.  Bill Sardi also recommends it as well, as it seems to work well against COVID and various other ailments as well.  NAC not only raises T-cell levels, but also seems to disrupt the virus' key spike protein, and even more so when combined with the enzyme bromelain (from pineapples, and which is often found in quercetin supplements as an activator as well). No wonder the FDA is actually trying to ban it on essentially the same specious, spurious, and utterly pharisaical grounds they have been trying to ban CBD (cannabidiol) with for years--their Big Pharma masters feel utterly threatened by it.

Another thing Bill Sardi noted recently:  the latest (clearly rigged) study that appeared to cast doubt on Vitamin C has basically been refuted upon closer examination.  Thus, not only should Vitamin C (in high enough doses, and most importantly, taken frequently enough) be back on the menu, it never should have been off in the first place.  

Dr. Kats recommends taking it in a 2:1 ratio of Vitamin C to Niacin.  He also recommends taking both Niacin (nicotinic acid) and Niacinamide (nicotinamide) in equal amounts as well.  And he later added melatonin to his protocol as well, especially for long-haulers.  Apparently, the virus' messing around with tryptophan metabolism depletes not only NAD (which Niacin and Niacinamide are both precursors for), but also endogenous melatonin as well. Such depletion is very bad, but fortunately can be quickly easily corrected with supplements to restore health by jump-starting the body's natural processes.

Back to Vitamin D, there is an interesting theory from 2008 that the variation of the levels of this nutrient may explain not only the apparent Hope-Simpson seasonality of influenza, but also the tendency of some individuals to be what we would now call "superspreaders" as well, with or without symptoms.  The parallels with COVID are quite intriguing, and it seems Vitamin D would reduce not only deaths and serious illnesses, but also transmission as well.

And let's not forget Ivermectin as well, as both treatment and prophylaxis, which has practically become "the new penicillin" and "the drug that cracked COVID" in so many countries.  Budesonide is another successful and underrated early treatment as well.  And for any cases that still manage to become or remain severe or critical, there is always the rest of the MATH+ Protocol to fall back on, per the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance.

Ivermectin's mechanism of action is manifold, and includes binding/blocking the viral spike protein from docking onto/into our cells, as well as blocking a key enzyme needed for viral replication.  Again, one should note that NAC also works by targeting the spike protein as well, and it was recently reported in a German study that dandelion extract can also block the spike protein (at least in vitro.)  Resveratrol (from grapes) also appears to neutralize the spike protein, though again it is best to take NAC and resveratrol at least six hours apart to avoid any mutual antagonism. 

As for prophylactic nasal sprays, some are in development as we speak, though not yet commercially available.  Until then, fortunately there is already one that is likely to block the virus while yielding additional health benefits in the meantime.  It is called Xlear, a natural, drug-free saline nasal spray with xylitol and grapefruit seed extract.  Additionally, there is another one called Betadine, which contains carrageenan (from seaweed), that also apparently has a good antiviral effect as well.

And finally, stop all the funny business with the way cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are counted as well, including the ridiculously high cycle threshold for the PCR testing (should be set no higher than 30, or perhaps even 25, instead of the ridiculous 37-40+ in many places still) along with the routine testing of people without any symptoms in the community.  If you feel you absolutely must test asymptomatic people, go with the rapid test first, and only use PCR as confirmation if positive.  The "casedemic" is a big chunk of the overall pandemic, if not the vast majority of it currently.  Problem solved. 

The Biggest Public Health Fiasco In History

What is "the biggest public health fiasco in history"?  If you had guessed the COVID-19 pandemic itself, you would actually be quite wrong.  As horrible as it is, anyone who has read a history book or stayed awake in history class can tell you there have clearly been far, far worse pandemics than this one.  No, that dubious honor would actually in fact go the highly counterproductive countermeasures--lockdowns.

That is the headline conclusion arrived at by the preeminent expert authors of a Telegraph article (worth reading in full), Dr. Jay Bhattacharya and Dr. Martin Kulldorf, both of Great Barrington Declaration fame.  In a nutshell, the lockdowns and related restrictions not only failed to stop the virus, but also utterly failed to protect the most vulnerable members of society, and caused a massive amount of collateral damage as well, to say nothing of the unprecedented assault on our hard-won civil rights and liberties.

Many, many studies bear this out quite nicely.  In fact, lockdown states and countries tend to have, on average, higher death rates than their free and open counterparts.  You read that right:  greater government stringency is actually correlated with higher death rates.  It is thus painfully obvious now that the "cure" was far worse than the disease.

Just like we at the TSAP have been saying for over a year now, basically.  And we are at nearly day 400 or so (!) of "15 days to flatten the curve" now.  Groundhog Day effectively became Groundhog Year.  So what has become of the specious claims used to justify all of these unprecedented restrictions?

First, the infamous Imperial College model (devised by Professor Neil Ferguson) that was initially used to justify lockdowns was, in a word, wrong.  Not just a little bit wrong, but often orders of magnitude wrong for so many countries, both in countries that eschewed lockdowns and those who implemented them, and everything in between.  Once it became clear by the end of April 2020 that the model had utterly failed its first real-world tests in places like Sweden, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and the few US states that did not lock down or barely did, that really should have been the end of it.  But the lockdown zealots then simply moved the goalposts again, and clung to a few other very questionable assumptions that supposedly made these restrictions necessary regardless of the models.  So what about those?

We know now that truly asymptomatic spread, while possible, is a lot rarer than most people think, a mere 0.7% even in that very closest and riskiest setting of all, within households.  And outdoor spread?  A vanishingly low 0.1% of cases. And fomites (surfaces)?  An even lower still < 0.01%, and probably even less than that if people wash their hands and don't touch their faces or keep fiddling with their masks!  All for a disease with an infection fatality rate within the ballpark of a nasty flu season for most people, and that we know now how to treat effectively.  This is what the actual science says, folks.  And it utterly demolishes any need for lockdowns, closures, mask mandates, or any other New Abnormal restrictions at this juncture, period.

As for indoor aerosol (airborne) transmission, which looks like the real dominant way it is transmitted as opposed to large droplets, if we put even a smidgeon of the effort we have been putting into masks, distancing, and disinfecting surfaces (which are largely useless against small aerosols) instead into simply improving ventilation and airflow, air filters and UV light, and avoiding indoor overcrowding, that would have made a far greater difference had we done so before or during the worst of the pandemic.

The TSAP currently advocates going "cold turkey", ending all restrictions and opening up 100%.  And yesterday is not soon enough!  Look, it's not April 2020 anymore.  We have not one, not two, but THREE vaccines now, and even well before that we already had proven treatments and prophylactics (including, but not limited to, Ivermectin, Budesonide, HCQ, and various vitamins and minerals like Vitamin C, Vitamin D, Vitamin K, Zinc, Selenium, Magnesium, Quercetin, Resveratrol, Niacin, Thiamine, B-12, and the amino acid Lysine) that the ghouls in charge wilfully chose to ignore, deny, or greatly downplay.  Which, by the way, is literally murder by omission.  Not only do we know a LOT more now, but knowing that lockdowns would do more harm than good is something we should have known before the pandemic--and in fact we did.  But then we threw the hard-won wisdom of the ages out the window like so much garbage, and now we are all paying a heavy price for it.  

So what are we waiting for?  Set a hard and permanent "quit date" no more than a week or two in the future, commit to it, and lift ALL restrictions on or before that date, period.  That is, revert back to being no stricter than we were in 1957-1958, 1968-1969, 2009-2010 (all pandemic years, by the way), 2018, 2019, or January-February 2020.  That is, return to the true normal 100%.  And finally end the officially declared state of emergency as well.  And make sure this public health fiasco NEVER, EVER happens again!

UPDATE:  We should all know by now that lockdowns are worse than useless, at least for a disease of this type.  The data clearly speaks for itself.  But even if they were somewhat useful in fighting the virus, the collateral damage is so massive and so predictable that, according to Julius Ruechel's excellent article, they are morally equivalent to pulling the switch in the classic Trolley Problem.  Which is to say, lockdowns are inherently immoral unless one is a truly incorrigible cold-hearted utilitarian who could care less about human rights and human dignity.  We at the TSAP believe in "first, do no harm", and lockdowns of course inevitably do plenty of harm (especially to the most vulnerable and underprivileged members of society) no matter how much money we may print in an attempt to paper over such contrived and unnecessary harm.

And once again, we see Sweden has still won the lockdown debate hands down.  Ditto for the wide-open states (Florida, Texas, etc.) in the USA as well.

There is even a good Covid Charts Quiz as well.  See if you can spot the difference in the trends between lockdown vs. open, and masked vs. unmasked states.

JUNE UPDATE:  And according new studies, two other things we can add to the list of worse than useless measures are Plexiglass (or Perspex in the UK) screens and nighttime curfews.  Both seem to be not only useless, but even counterproductive, in that they may even increase transmission of the virus!  So along with lockdowns and general mask mandates, these NPIs should also be scrapped yesterday and permanently removed from serious consideration ever again.  To paraphrase President Ronald Reagan, "Mr. Biden, tear down this plexiglass!"

What The Blood Clot? The Curious Story Of COVID-19, Vaccines, and Vitamin B-12

With first the AstraZeneca/Oxford COVID-19 vaccine, and now the Johnson and Johnson (Janssen) vaccine as well, possibly linked to a rare type of blood clot, a new spotlight ought to be cast upon the mysterious problem of coagulopathy (excessive and dangerous clotting) arising from both the vaccines as well as from COVID itself.  The role of the vaccines remains unclear, while the role the virus itself has been controversial and poorly understood from the start.  And the ever-insightful Bill Sardi wrote an excellent article about his convincing theory on the matter.

We know that "cytokine storms", when the immune system belatedly gets out of control and the body basically nukes itself, can cause blood clots to form incidentally.  This can happen with severe cases of the flu as well.  Usually these clots form in the veins rather than the arteries, but strangely with COVID, they form in both the veins and arteries for whatever reason.  Whether the virus itself and/or its spike protein (the latter of which is also produced by the vaccines) is somehow causing these clots directly in the blood vessels, and/or some other factor is involved, remains a mystery.  And anticoagulants (blood thinners) do not always help matters either. 

Enter Vitamin B-12 deficiency as the possible X-factor causing this strange and mysterious blood clotting seen in COVID.  It is more common than you think, with one in six Americans being deficient, and likely many more having suboptimal levels of this essential nutrient.  And Vitamin B-12 deficiency has been linked to a condition known as pseudo-thrombotic microangiopathy that causes spontaneous blood clotting.  So what does the virus have to do with it?  Among other hypotheses, COVID may deplete B-12 and thus elevate homocysteine, while B-12 inhibits replication of the virus, and a shortage of B-12 also makes it harder for the body to produce antibodies.  So whichever is the proverbial chicken and which is the egg, correcting this deficiency with supplements (particularly in the form of methylcobalamin) would clearly be beneficial here.  Remember, due to some biological quirks not everyone can absorb it very well through their gut, hence the massive number of people who are deficient, so taking it sublingually (under the tongue) is the best way to take it.

Vitamin B-12 may also help alleviate long-hauler symptoms as well, particularly the persistent fatigue, which deficiency in this nutrient is known to cause.

Thus, in addition to Vitamin A, Vitamin C, Vitamin D, zinc, Quercetin, Thiamine (B1), Niacin (B3), resveratrol, selenium, magnesium, and the amino acid lysine, we can now (belatedly) add Vitamin B-12 to our arsenal against COVID-19.  And this really ought to be done regardless of whether or not one gets vaccinated, or which vaccine one ends up getting.

And for people NOT taking warfarin (a blood-thinning drug which is specifically antagonized by it, by design), don't forget about the highly-underrated Vitamin K either.  This vitamin may also be a crucial "missing link" in the connection between COVID and blood clots and bad outcomes as well, and it is also known to be a good complement to Vitamin D as well.

UPDATE:  Bill Sardi also wrote another good article recently about thiamine (Vitamin B1), and how its widespread deficiency also may be underlying the worst of the pandemic, both acute and long COVID.

Also, we should point out one glaring vaccine myth that has been busted, the "shedding" or "second-hand vax" myth that apparently started as a online rumor that has since gone, um, viral.  There is no live virus at all in the mRNA vaccines, the adenovirus vaccines cannot replicate, and the spike protein, even if it itself can make you sick in high enough quantities, does NOT replicate or spread from person to person, and does not seem to linger around very long either.  While there are a number of reasons still for concern regarding these vaccines, "shedding" is not one of them, and repeating this myth only gives ammunition to the other side, making divide-and-conquer that much easier.  Critical thinking is, well, critical.

But yes, it does appear that the spike protein itself (and the mRNA which codes for it, of course) is inherently THE problem with these vaccines, and can indeed make one quite sick.  Having that particular protein be the target will likely go down in history as one of the biggest mistakes ever made.  If you already have received any of these vaccines, be VERY careful and be sure to take plenty of NAC, Quercetin, Resveratrol, Fisetin, dandelion, and perhaps pine needle tea as well to counteract that toxic spike protein.  And don't get any booster shots either, unless your doctor says you absolutely must due to being at extremely high risk from the virus.  Even then, perhaps you should look for a new doctor!

It's NOT Just The Economy, Stupid!

Along with the false choice between "lives versus livelihoods", lockdown enthusiasts seem to have this idea that "just" the economy is a mere appendage of society that can be casually hacked off at will with no long-term consequences.  While clearly nothing is further from the truth.  As we have learned the very hard way, lockdowns are always a lose-lose proposition, at least in the long run.  And their proponents thus have a LOT of blood on their hands.

Given how it has been clearly shown time and again over the past year that lockdowns, closures, and related restrictions don't really save lives or materially stop the spread of the virus (at best they slow it down a bit, thus ironically prolonging the pandemic, and at worst they are gasoline on the dumpster fire), it would be bad enough if all they did was "merely" wreck the economy.  But the damage goes far deeper than that.  A recent article in fact details the massive damage that these restrictions do to the mental health of young people.  All that loneliness, isolation, depression, anxiety, and existential dread in our unprecedentedly contactless and touchless society is highly toxic, and in fact more young Americans under 25 died from suicide than died from COVID in 2020.  All-cause mortality among people under 25, especially ages 15-25, was indeed significantly higher in 2020 than in 2018 or 2019.  But that is likely the tip of a very large iceberg of damage that will be felt for a very long time to come.

Quarantine in general is inherently traumatizing to most people, and thus never good for mental health.  And it is a truism that the longer it is, the worse it is.  Alas, we can thus expect the incidence and prevalence of PTSD to rise dramatically as a result.

To say that this very sad state of affairs stunts the development of children and young people would have to be the understatement of the century!

An entire generation has now also suffered educationally as well due to school closures.  Virtual "learning" has generally been a joke (albeit not a very funny one), and the unprecedented level of learning loss (which disproportionately affects poorer students and students of color, by the way) will leave lasting scars on them.  And the dystopian masked, distanced, and hyper-germaphobic environment they must endure when they actually are being educated in-person in most schools truly cannot be good for their mental health or even physical health.  Seriously.

Not like all that loneliness and isolation is actually good for anyone of any age, particularly including the very same elderly and vulnerable members of society that the lockdowners claim to have done all of these dystopian things in the name of "protecting".  Which was a spectacular and and epic failure to say the least.

And for women?  Well, let's see.  Between disproportionately losing their jobs or working in risky essential jobs, having to stay home with their kids with no respite while schools and daycares are closed, and/or caring for sick and vulnerable adults ad well, women have been taking on a triple burden throughout this pandemic.  And with primarily male violence against women and children (domestic violence and child abuse) skyrocketing during lockdown as well, with victims being trapped with their abusers, we can conclude that lockdown has basically been patriarchy on crack.  And women's hard-won progress has thus been set back decades.

(And one can also thus conclude that Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, who eschewed lockdowns, has in practice been more of a feminist than lockdown-loving Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, despite the former ironically being a conservative Republican and the latter being a liberal Democrat.)

And again, the best evidence shows that these toxic and authoritarian restrictions did nothing to save lives or otherwise benefit public health at all on balance.  We unfortunately cannot change the past, but we can decide what sort of future we can have and try to repair the damage as best we can.  Thus, as we have already advocated, it is best to go "cold turkey" from these restrictions, go back to normal 100%, and vow to NEVER repeat these mistakes again.  And yesterday is not soon enough!

To paraphrase a song from R.E.M. "Don't go back to Lockdown, and waste another year."

Behold, The Universal "Vaccine"

Did you hear about the latest vaccine breakthrough?  No, not the COVID-19 vaccines, but the new one against that other virus that no one seems to talk much about these days, what was that one called again? Oh yeah, THE FLU.  Wait, what?  Yes, really.

Current influenza vaccines are rather half-assed at best even when they are a good match (and sometimes they are not) for whatever strains happen to be circulating in a given season, and because they are so strain-specific, they need to be updated every year to keep up with the gazillion mutations that these very devious viruses keep on doing to evade our immune systems.  And when a truly novel and nasty strain comes along, which happens every now and then, these seasonal flu shots can become utterly useless in the face of these ever-changing variants.

This latest breakthrough is a relatively universal flu vaccine that solves that perennial problem by blocking a much, much wider variety of virus strains, both seasonal and potential pandemic ones, even including those really nasty bird flu strains as well.  This has long been the holy grail that has been sought after for decades, and now it seems like they finally found one that works, at least in animals, while human clinical trials are still pending.

But what if we told you that there is, and has always been, a sort of universal "vaccine" that works against not only influenza, but also coronaviruses and pretty much everything else under the sun as well?  Well, it turns out there actually is, and it's called....

T-CELLS!

Looks like the TSAP has been right all along about herd immunity having been far closer than the "experts" seem to think, even before the vaccine (that is, the old-fashioned way via natural infection).  Antibody serosurveys apparently only tell part of the story, since, as yet another study confirms, these T-cells seem to be both more important, more durable, and fortunately more prevalent than antibodies.  Simply as little as being exposed to the virus but not necessarily infected (that is, a failed attempt by the virus to infect you since you managed to knock it out quickly before it could establish itself), or perhaps a brief and asymptomatic infection, can be sufficient to develop at least some T-cell immunity even in the absence of detectable antibodies and/or when repeatedly testing negative for the virus itself.

In fact, previous exposure to other coronaviruses (including common cold coronaviruses) apparently can also create a T-cell cross-response to SARS-CoV-2 to some extent as well, a fact already known last year.

And not only do T-cells last longer than antibodies, but another study finds that they work far better against the new variants, even the South African and Brazilian ones.  These variants managed to evolve a specific mutation to at least partially dodge antibodies, but yet they do NOT seem to be able to stand a chance against our T-cells, whether they are derived from previous natural exposures to the older strains or from vaccination (which interestingly appear to be about equally effective in that regard).

So where can we get these T-cells?  From our very own thymus glands, in fact, and we need sufficient zinc to make it happen.  Zinc is also needed for the B-cells to make antibodies, and plus it is also a good antiviral in it's own right by stopping viruses from replicating, especially when paired with a zinc ionophore such as Quercetin.  Throw in some Vitamin A, Vitamin C, Vitamin D, niacin, thiamine, resveratrol, and the amino acid Lysine, and you got yourself a truly winning combination.  So whether or not you actually end up getting any of the COVID vaccines, be sure not to forget any of these crucial nutrients!

(And let's not forget selenium, magnesium, and Vitamin B-12 either, which are at least as crucial.)

In fact, it was recently noted that without sufficient Vitamin D to activate their receptors, our T-cells basically won't even function.  Meanwhile, Vitamin D also normalizes the immune response overall to keep it from getting dangerously out of control at the same time, which is particularly crucial in the case of COVID and those dreaded cytokine storms (and bradykinin storms) that it is notorious for provoking.

In the same vein, the ever-insightful Bill Sardi also points out that thymus gland extracts are quite promising treatments for when one is actually sick.  Thymosin alpha-1 can also potentially be used as an alternative adjuvant in actual vaccines as well to boost effectiveness organically, which is clearly far better than the neurotoxic aluminum (!) that is still currently used as an adjuvant in many common vaccines today.  Let that last sentence sink in.

Because truly the very best "vaccine" of all is the one that the body makes itself.  And unlike manmade ones, it is universal as well, with no nasty side effects.

JUNE UPDATE:  A new Cleveland Clinic study dovetails rather nicely with this article.

JULY UPDATE:  According to the latest study, T-cells still appear be quite variant-proof.

NOVEMBER UPDATE:  Yet another study dovetails nicely with the idea that just getting grazed (exposed but not successfully infected) by the virus will produce T-cell immunity to one degree or another.  And with the current mRNA and DNA/adenovirus "vaccines" epically failing right now, it looks like the best "booster" of all may very well be exposure to the virus itself, especially during the jabs' brief honeymoon period before efficacy collapses.

2022 UPDATE:  One of the last articles ever written by the late, great Bill Sardi discusses one way to promote such T-cell immunity, and that is resveratrol (from grapes).  Definitely a supplement worth taking.

The TSAP Opposes Vaccine Passports

We at the TSAP vehemently oppose the latest disturbing trend:  "vaccine passports".  Yes, those things are exactly what they sound like, a paper (or most likely digital) proof of vaccination to be used as a requirement for entry into various venues, travel, and God only knows what else.  Perhaps even leaving one's house at some point?  Make no mistake, these creepy vaccine passports are the next crucial step towards a "papers please" totalitarian state, and slopes are a LOT slipperier than they appear!

The TSAP has already vehemently opposed from the get-go ANY form of force or coercion for these still-experimental COVID vaccines, period.  Anything short of free and fully informed consent in that regard is an egregious violation of civil and human rights (not to mention the US Constitution, remember that dusty old thing?) and thus has absolutely NO place in a free and civilized society, period.  And we absolutely refuse to compromise in that regard.  This illiberal and utterly Orwellian and dystopian idea needs to be nipped in the bud, and yesterday is not soon enough!

The very specious concept that the vaccinated and unvaccinated must be segregated in some way is patently absurd on its face.  The unvaccinated are NOT a material threat to the vaccinated, and if there is any threat it would be the other way around.  Unless, of course, you are in fact tacitly conceding that these vaccines may not really be all they are cracked up to be, but hey, you said it (or implied it), not me. And if that were really the case, and the vaccines were essentially no better than Nyquil, then what would be the point of vaccination in the first place?  Conversely, if the vaccines really are so safe and effective against such an extraordinarily horrible plague like you claim, there would be no need to force or coerce anyone to get them at all.  Seriously, if you give the New Abnormal zealots enough rope...

Plus, rigidly segregating the unvaccinated from the vaccinated in the long run would most likely result in dangerous new and/or vaccine-resistant variants taking hold more easily, by unwittingly selecting for, concentrating, and incubating whatever nastier and more contagious variants there are at a given time, compared to simply letting the virus circulate freely and the nastier variants eventually burn themselves out and get swamped by the milder ones.

In fact, as we at the TSAP have pointed out repeatedly before, we don't even need a vaccine to go back to true normal, since even well before the vaccines we already had more than enough existing treatments and prophylactics sufficient to reduce the pandemic to a mere nuisance within a week or two.  That is, if we had actually chosen to use them instead of suppressing and censoring such things.

At least Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida has the good sense to preemptively oppose the idea of vaccine passports.  In fact, he recently implemented an executive order prohibiting them in his state.  Not only does it ban government entities from issuing or requiring anything of the sort, but also prohibits any businesses in Florida from requiring them for customers and patrons as well.  Make no mistake, he clearly does NOT oppose COVID vaccines or any other common vaccines, and he has clearly been instrumental in freely distributing these shots in his state just like every other governor has.  But unlike some other big-shot governors, he is clearly taking a firm stand against even the slightest hint of vaccine coercion and the resulting vaccine apartheid.

Even if DeSantis were the only governor in the nation who will take such a stand (and he probably won't be for very long), his executive order creates a clear and positive conflict between federal and state law should the federal government make any attempt to create and impose their own national vaccine passport program.  Talk about a major fly in the ointment!

Meanwhile, the venerable ACLU is strangely out to lunch on this issue.  Just a year ago they opposed even such trivial intrusions as temperature checks, and yet they won't openly take a stand on THIS?  Hey ACLU, you know we love you overall, but know this:  "the hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in times of great moral crisis, maintain their neutrality," as JFK apocryphally attributed to Dante's Inferno.

Even the famous arch-vaccine skeptic and arch-lockdown skeptic J.B. Handley has been strangely quiet lately about this increasingly pressing issue, come to think of it.  And in fact ALL of his several blog articles from 2020 related to either vaccines, COVID, and/or lockdowns have been mysteriously deleted in these past few months for some reason.  And his Twitter has barely even mentioned these topics at all since January or so.  Of course, people will unfortunately interpret his deafening silence as consent.  Whether he is silent or was silenced, we really don't know, but either way, it is not good at all.

(Fortunately, there is always the Wayback Machine, which indefinitely saves archived versions of his many now-deleted articles for all of us to see.)

Oh, and one more thing:  it should go without saying, but these experimental vaccines are NOT FOR KIDS!  Not only is COVID less dangerous than the flu for children, and children are far less likely to spread it too, but these vaccines have barely been tested at all on people under 16 for the Pfizer vaccine (18 for Moderna and J&J).  That makes these vaccines all risk and negligible reward, so our opposition to vaccine coercion applies a fortiori to anyone under 18.  If consenting adults truly want to take these vaccines, that is fine, but DO NOT impose them on kids or teens, period.  And certainly DO NOT require them as a condition of school attendance just because some of the already-vaccinated teachers and staff are still somehow too scared (!) of unvaccinated kids.  No, you FIRE the freaking cowards and open up 100%, yesterday!  It's really a no-brainer at this point.

We have a choice between returning to true normal versus the dystopian New Abnormal on steroids for the foreseeable future.  Let's make the right choice.

(While we still have a choice, that is.)

UPDATE 1:  As of April 5th, it looks like DeSantis is no longer the only governor to openly oppose vaccine passports.  As of April 6th, the number is now SEVEN, and growing, red and blue, and now also includes:  Governors Greg Abbott of Texas, Brian Kemp of Georgia, Mike Parson of Missouri, Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, and Laura Kelly of Kansas.  And, of course, Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota as well, who rightly called vaccine passports "un-American".  Even President Biden is apparently backing off from the idea now.  And New York's "Excelsior Pass" currently seems to be a glitchy mess for the most part.  The tide is finally turning, God willing.

UPDATE 2:  Looks like the TSAP has been right all along about herd immunity having been far closer than the "experts" seem to think, even before the vaccine (that is, the old-fashioned way via natural infection).  Antibody serosurveys apparently only tell part of the story, since, as yet another study confirms, T-cells seem to be both more important, more durable, and fortunately more prevalent than antibodies.  Simply as little as being exposed to the virus but not necessarily infected (that is, a failed attempt by the virus to infect you since you managed to knock it out quickly before it could establish itself), or perhaps a brief and asymptomatic infection, can be sufficient to develop at least some T-cell immunity even in the absence of detectable antibodies and/or when repeatedly testing negative for the virus itself.

In fact, previous exposure to other coronaviruses (including common cold coronaviruses) apparently can also create a T-cell cross-response to SARS-CoV-2 to some extent as well, a fact already known last year.

And not only do T-cells last longer than antibodies, but another study finds that they work far better against the new variants, even the South African and Brazilian ones.  These variants managed to evolve a specific mutation to at least partially dodge antibodies, but yet they do NOT seem to be able to stand a chance against our T-cells, whether they are derived from previous natural exposures to the older strains or from vaccination (which interestingly appear to be about equally effective in that regard).

So where can we get these T-cells?  From our very own thymus glands, in fact, and we need sufficient zinc to make it happen.  Zinc is also needed for the B-cells to make antibodies, and plus it is also a good antiviral in it's own right by stopping viruses from replicating, especially when paired with a zinc ionophore such as Quercetin.  Throw in some Vitamin A, Vitamin C, Vitamin D, niacin, thiamine, resveratrol, and the amino acid Lysine, and you got yourself a truly winning combination.  So whether or not you end up getting any of the vaccines, be sure not to forget any of these crucial nutrients!

(In the same vein, the ever-insightful Bill Sardi also points out that thymus gland extracts are quite promising treatments for when one is actually sick.)

Because truly the very best "vaccine" of all is the one that the body makes itself.  And unlike manmade ones, it is universal as well, with no nasty side effects.

UPDATE 3:  The authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, including Professor Martin Kulldorf, clearly oppose vaccine passports as well.

UPDATE 4:  As for the latest Faucian (Faucist?) idea that vaccinated people can somehow become asymptomatic superspreaders, and thus still needing to continue following restrictions indefinitely, that is also highly unlikely given how 1) asymptomatic transmission in general, even without vaccines, is far less likely than originally thought (a mere 0.7%) and thus not a major driver of outbreaks, and 2) while breakthrough infections can still occasionally occur after being fully vaccinated, there is evidence that vaccinated people have significantly lower viral loads than unvaccinated people, further reducing the potential for onward transmission to others.  Thus, there is no real obstacle to returning to 100% normal yesterday.  But still, regardless of whether you are vaccinated or not, be sure to take your vitamins, wash your hands, cover your coughs and sneezes, and respect each other's personal space, the latter of which used to be called "etiquette".  Also, fresh air and sunshine are your friends.  And if you actually get sick in the traditional sense of the word, stay the hell home!  In other words, use common sense.

UPDATE 5:  We are deeply disappointed in Thom Hartmann for his recent article he wrote in support of vaccine passports for places as mundane as restaurants.  There is absolutely nothing "woke" or progressive in taking such a stance, period.  

Also, take a look at Miss Conceptions on Twitter.  They point out some rather eerie "coincidences" that can be found all around the world in regards to vaccine launches and subsequent spikes in supposedly COVID cases and deaths as well as all-cause excess deaths within a few weeks later, typically lagged two weeks.  From India to Hungary to Czechia to Mongolia to Chile to Israel to Gibraltar to the UK to several US states, et al., it is really quite curious indeed.  And if nothing else, as a bonus, you will also learn the flags of pretty much every country in the world.  

We can see a classic "journey-destination problem", that is, whether through mass infection, mass vaccination, or the two-for-one special, the journey to herd immunity is much more dangerous than the destination.  Though as Gibraltar and Israel have shown, and the UK is currently showing, once the unfortunate mountain of corpses has been climbed, there is barely any COVID at all on other side once the dust has finally settled. If only there were some sort of safe and effective treatment and prophylaxis regimen available last year, then the journey could have been made much safer, without resorting to any rushed experimental vaccines.  Oh wait, there actually was such a thing in existence, but the ghouls in charge chose to wilfully ignore, deny, and greatly downplay it, which is literally murder by omission. 

UPDATE 6:  See the following excellent article by Helen Andrews.  The issue isn't going away!

Plot Twist: It Was Seasonality All Along

With the latest hand-wringing over the March surge of COVID in some European countries, there seems to be a lot of head-scratching and finger-pointing as to why.  And the usual suspects (lifting restrictions, people letting their guard down, new variants, etc.) don't really seem to hold water this time, if they ever really did.  Turns out, it is most likely due to seasonality, and its interaction with the level of herd immunity in the population, and has been all along.  See the following tweets below:

Apparently, a study from a year ago found that the virus has an ideal temperature range of 41-52 F, and an ideal low absolute humidity that translates to roughly 47-79% relative humidity in that temperature range.  So in Europe and the northern USA, regardless of what restrictions were in place, the virus logically surged in the fall and early winter when passing through the ideal range on the way down, then dropped like a stone from mid-January to mid-February, then is either plateauing or rising again in late February and March when passing through that range on the way up.  And after about three weeks or so, it will most likely plummet monotonically to a low baseline through the spring and summer.  The Sunbelt of course has a different seasonality, so the virus is still dropping there even with restrictions generally being lifted faster there.  Last year, their surge occurred in June and July, when they had a relatively COVID-naive population.  But given the combination of herd immunity and seasonality overall, the virus should continue to plummet to a low baseline there as well.  Regardless of restrictions.

Of course, there are other factors as well.  In the winter, people are indoors more, where the virus spreads much more easily (especially with closed windows and thus poor ventilation), and it is also "broken immune system season" (which stretches roughly from November through April) due to low Vitamin D levels from relative lack of sunlight.  But this latest nuance about the ideal temperature and humidity range for the virus explains even more still.

As for vaccines, it is notable that cases began plummeting even well before a significant chunk of the population was vaccinated, and by the time it began falling at a slower rate or even rising again, a good chunk had already received the shots.  So seasonality is an even stronger factor that vaccines, apparently.  And bringing together a large number of people at a time, including many vulnerable people, at mass vaccination sites is ironically a very efficient way to spike the curve in the short term before the immunity from the vaccines fully kicks in (which takes at least two weeks if not longer).  Gibraltar apparently learned that lesson the hard way.

(Furthermore, the ever-insightful Bill Sardi has a theory that there may be a darker reason why many places with the highest vaccination rates are seeing spikes now, but only time will tell if that theory pans out.  Or perhaps it briefly increases susceptibility before it fully kicks in.  Either way, we should know one way or the other by April or May at the latest.)

So far, as of March 20th, the USA has largely dodged the European surge in March, with only Michigan and New Jersey seeing significant (but modest) recent increases.  But many other northern states above the 37th parallel, where it is still chilly and in season for the virus, progress has temporarily stalled.  But make no mistake, this stalling and/or reversal of progress is temporary, fairly brief, basically inevitable, and NOT related to the lifting of restrictions too soon or quickly, lack of masks or mask mandates, new variants, Spring Break, or vaccine hesitancy.  None of these "usual suspects" jibe well with the statistics.

UPDATE:  When looking on Worldometer at the data for three countries/territories that were first out the gate for mass vaccination and had the largest vaccination rates in January--UK, Israel, and especially Gibraltar--we can clearly see a massive super spike in COVID cases (and then deaths shortly after) for a few weeks, followed by a sharp and massive drop to a low baseline upon finally achieving herd immunity (by both infection and vaccination in a two-for-one special, ironically).  And no March surge there either.  So it looks like these post-vaccination surges are fortunately brief (albeit tragically very deadly, especially in Gibraltar), and may partially explain the March spikes in later-vaccinating and slower-vaccinating countries, including some out-of-season tropical countries like Brazil, Peru, and even India as well.  Meanwhile, some of the least-vaccinated and slowest-vaccinated areas (such as Texas) and populations (such as Palestinians) have been interestingly seeing better trends than their highly-vaccinated counterparts.  Makes you wonder.

(Correction:  Palestinians were seeing better trends than Israeli Jews from December through February, but by March the reverse clearly became true.)

But seasonality seems to predominate overall right now in the non-tropics.  And we see that in countries like Italy and Germany, the March mini-waves are already slowing down and curling over before their new lockdowns would have had any effect--kinda like their first waves last spring did too.  Which we have also repeatedly seen elsewhere as well, of course.

(Exactly how much of such spontaneous curling over and decline of these epidemic waves is due to seasonality, herd immunity to one degree or another, attrition of the biggest superspreaders from the population early on, voluntary behavior changes in response to rising case numbers, reversion to the mean, or some combination of the above is not entirely clear, but any correlation with lockdowns and related restrictions is clearly spurious.)

Another possible explanation for the apparent seasonality of this and other respiratory viruses is the hypothesis that it has more to do with changes in temperature than absolute temperature per se, and that some strains are more temperature-sensitive than others.  This also explains a lot as well. 

Also, it seems that HCoV-NL63, one of the four endemic common cold coronaviruses, is currently surging in the Midwest.  Perhaps that little pest is being picked up as false positives for COVID-19 by the notoriously inaccurate PCR tests in some places?

And speaking of the Midwest, once again, we see that lifting vs. keeping restrictions (of any kind) seems to be at best quite irrelevant to the COVID-19 virus:

So, remind me again why our "leaders" decided a year ago in March 2020 to throw the hard-won wisdom of the ages out the window like so much garbage, in favor of emulating a brutal totalitarian dictatorship halfway around the world? And then when their voodoo clearly didn't work, they not only persisted in their defection in the face of hard counter-evidence, but actually doubled and tripled down on it?

So call it whatever you want, just don't call it science.

QED  

See also here, here, here, here, and here as well.

And finally, as of the end of April, we can see:

Stop Asian Hate Now!

The True Spirit of America Party has a strong message to anyone who engages in, supports, fuels, or condones any acts of hate or discrimination against Asian and Pacific Islander Americans.  KNOCK IT OFF, YESTERDAY!  Period.  We at the TSAP have absolutely zero tolerance for any racism, discrimination, or hate crimes of any kind, and these recent anti-Asian incidents are absolutely unacceptable.

The fact that anyone in this day and age would actually vilify and blame Asians as a group for COVID-19 is absolutely despicable, and is no different than centuries ago when medieval Europeans would vilify and blame Jews for the Black Death and attack them as a result.  Yes, we know the national origin of this particular virus, but the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its leader Xi Jinping are NOT representative of an entire race, ethnicity, or nationality, no more than the GOP and Trump are somehow representative of all Americans or all white people for that matter.  And lest we forget, the notorious 1918 "Spanish" flu pandemic (which was many, many times worse than this one) actually originated in the USA (Fort Riley, Kansas to be precise), but of course you didn't see anyone blaming or vilifying Americans for that.  These sorts of toxic fallacies have very tragic and deadly consequences, as we have recently seen.

And to all of you cowardly bystanders out there during all of this, the time to step up to the plate is also yesterday as well.  If racists know you won't do anything about it, they will just keep on doing it.

We extend our greatest condolences and sympathy to the victims of this horrific and deplorable rash of hate crimes along with their friends and families as well.  

Time To End "Endless War", Yesterday!

As the True Spirit of America Party has long said time and again, "endless war" is NOT a sustainable strategy.  In fact, it is not even a strategy at all, but a concept.  And now we're in the 20th year (!) of the war in Afghanistan, the 18th year of the Iraq War in some capacity, and several years into smaller ones like Yemen, Syria, and so on.  And the first two are now presided over by their FOURTH President of the United States, and these wars have continued to be waged as usual even during a global pandemic.

Quagmire Accomplished, basically.  And what have we as a nation actually accomplished during this relentless decades-long quagmire? Certainly nothing good on balance.  Any strategic victories that did occur were exclusively at the very beginning, followed only by losses at the margin going forward.  And a massive stack of dead bodies, of course.  ISIL was ultimately routed for the most part, but lest we forget, they would not have even existed had we not invaded and destabilized Iraq in the first place.  Thus the "cure" was much worse by than the disease.

As for Afghanistan, al-Qaeda was also routed and largely reduced to a nuisance, but then mission creep quickly set in.  We almost had Bin Laden then "lost" him in Pakistan, then finally got him in 2011.  Then we decided to stay there for some reason.  Then ISIL went to Afghanistan to take advantage of the destabilization (even with American troops still there), and so on. And in the meantime, we managed to create terrorists faster than we could kill them.

The only winners here are the oligarchs who profit from this whole racket, quite literally making a killing, as noted by Major General Smedley Butler all the way back in his insightful 1935 book, War Is A Racket.

Thus, it is LONG past time to withdraw our troops from all of these wars quickly and responsibly.  As Win Without War advocates, we need to combine our withdrawal with a commensurate humanitarian and diplomatic surge as well.  We will likely need to implement some sort of Marshall Plan for the affected nations, financed by Monetary Sovereignty and of course the massive savings from cutting war spending.  But withdraw we must, sooner or later.  And yesterday is NOT soon enough!

The open-ended AUMFs both need to be repealed, and the authority for making war needs to be rightfully restored to Congress as per the US Constitution (hey, remember that thingy?).  The War Powers Resolution needs to be greatly tightened in terms of its limits on the President to use military force, 1) only in true emergencies, 2) with an absolute hard limit of 90 days in the absence of Congressional authorization, and 3) strict liability for any consequences if the action turns out to be illegitimate.  And all Congressional authorizations for military force must be either 1) a formal declaration of war, generally done against nation-states, or 2) a much more limited "Letter of Marque and Reprisal" against, and only against, members of specific terrorist and criminal organizations and syndicates named in the letter, which may also be acted upon by private entities as well.  Both are explicitly authorized by the Constitution.  No more vague and open-ended AUMFs, no more unilateral "policing the world", and no more prolonged military occupations either.

All wars must follow Just War Theory criteria:  1) Just cause, 2) Right intention, 3) Proportionality of means, 4) Reasonable prospects of success, and 5) Last resort, among other criteria (but these are the core criteria).  The war in question must also be in America's national interest (not merely business interests!) as well.  And the moment any one of these criteria is no longer met, the war must end, period.   Spoiler alert:  very few wars in our nation's history have actually met all of these criteria. 

For the record, the TSAP is 100% against bringing back the draft.  One of the very few things that hippies, Barry Goldwater, and Ronald Reagan could all agree on was that the draft is a bad idea, period.  We believe that the all-volunteer military is superior in every way, and conscription is a Machiavellian form of slavery, violating both the 13th Amendment as well as Kant's categorical imperative.  And while we should certainly eradicate poverty, thus eliminating the "poverty draft" (i.e. economic coercion), we should at the same time also pay our (smaller number of) troops what they are actually worth (which is a LOT more than what they are paid now!) so we should never run short of volunteers.  Besides, as cynical as it sounds, a country that actually needs a draft to defend itself deserves to lose.

That said, if we really wanna smash this war racket for good, we would nonetheless support a form of "consensual conscription" in which any future war must be approved by a limited plebiscite (with a non-secret ballot!) of men and women of military age (which we define as 18-64) who are at least reasonably fit to serve and not obviously 4-F.  Those who vote "yes" would be eligible to be drafted as necessary should we run short of volunteers, those who vote "no" would be exempt, and those who abstain from voting would be drafted next after all the "yes" voters are picked.  Those who voted "yes" or abstained but then conveniently become "conscientious objectors" after being chosen will (if approved) then be assigned to do civilian service or perhaps join a "Human Shield Brigade" to protect civilians.  In other words, if you don't wanna be drafted, simply exercise your right and duty to vote "NO" to any military action that you personally find to be questionable, foolish, reckless, and/or immoral.  And the incentive to go to war will thus evaporate when enough people with "skin in the game" vote "NO", and we also ban war profiteering as well.

Thus, the Selective Service System should be placed back into "deep standby" with the registration requirement suspended indefinitely (like it was in 1975-1980) until it actually becomes necessary to reactivate registration in the event of a legitimately declared war.  That is quick and easy to do with today's technology, and in the meantime we have the Reserves and the National Guard as a temporary "bridge" in case God forbid an actual draft is needed.  Thus, such registration is superfluous nowadays.

In a nutshell, when we finally take the profit out of war, then unsurprisingly the odds of actually going to war will surely approach zero going forward.

As Major General Smedley Butler famously said, 

"TO HELL WITH WAR!"

And let the planetary healing begin!